Racing is a very frustrating sport, and Rousing Encore proved why that is the case.
It's best to start off with Sun Goddess, who will be a very tough nut to crack in the 1000 Guineas next year if she can progress over the winter. She is doing some amazing stuff over the sprint trips, when she clearly is not a sprinter. We see this so often from Aidan's horses, and they get better with age and when they step up in trip.
Desperate Dan missed the places by one, and did well considering I thought he was in trouble at the start. He eventually got back on the bridle and then looked like he was going to challenge, but he didn't have enough in the tank.
As for Rousing Encore…wow. I don't think I've backed a horse in a long time that was in the position this horse was in and trading at 1.01 on the exchange to then go on and lose. Surely the jockey was to blame for what happened, and if you've not seen the race, I beg you to watch the replay. We got EW returns, but it should have been a win, and I cannot believe it wasn't.
Royal Bay Cen 4/1 – Curragh 2.35
The best horse in the race is the favourite, but he is not proven on testing ground at this trip, and also carries a penalty. This is why he is 5/2 and not a shorter price, and I think you have to take him on. The problem is: which horse has the best chance? In my opinion, that horse is Royal Bay Cen.
The weather forecast says it will lash it down at the Curragh in the early hours of Sunday, and the ground should turn heavy. Royal Bay Cen is a lightly raced filly and hasn't been seen in 133 days, and I think she has been waiting for some bad ground. She made a very strong impression on her first start for J P Murtagh at Cork in a Listed race, winning it by over nine lengths on soft ground. Last time out she encountered much faster ground, and didn't like it as much, but still ran a solid race to finish fourth.
This ground should be up her street, and it definitely brings her into contention to land a Group 3. Her fitness is going to be a big question with no run in 133 days, but if she's going to land a Group 3, today is probably that day, as she did against a bunch of horses who aren't guaranteed to enjoy the extremely wet ground.
Value Pending 4/1 – Curragh 3.45
I like the look of Value Pending for the second Group 3 of the day, and it's mainly due to the pedigree.
She is by Harry Angel, who was a versatile horse who won races on every type of ground, including a Group 1 win on heavy. Her pedigree points towards her enjoying today's ground a lot more than the others in the race. The favourite is by Baeed, who was not a fan of extremely slow ground, as we saw him lose his unbeaten record on his final start on Champions Day when the ground was slow. The other two ahead of Value Pending have run to a decent level, but aren't proven on the ground, and also look vulnerable to an unexposed type.
She only made her debut last week at Dundalk, so she is still a very raw filly, but she could be smart. She was pulling away at the finish, and winning debutantes from this yard is always a big positive.
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