Saturday’s Racing Tips – Theatre Man offers great value off an attractive handicap mark at Newbury

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Thankfully, the small drift on Leave Of Absence wasn't enough to stop him from winning at Newbury.

I was concerned about the way he was jumping as he was 50/50 at every fence. Some he would jump very fluently and others he would shift out to his right and fondle over the fence. Havaila did Havaila things, travelling nicely, but being too keen and emptying the gas tank because of the earlier exertions. My selection just managed to keep rolling and being on the front end was definitely beneficial, so credit goes to Rex Dingle.

Rizzel's tips

Theatre Man 11/2 – Newbury 2.40

The majority of the horses in this race are handicapped to the point where they should struggle to win off their current marks. Only a few horses I think can win off their current handicaps marks at this stage of their career, and they are Theatre Man, Scarface and Bob Bob Ricard.

Even though quite a few horses arrive at this race in decent form, history tells us that they will struggle off their current handicap marks. Theatre Man is a horse who probably hasn't hit the heights that some would have thought he would achieve. He has been a horse in recent years who has competed in the big handicaps at this trip (and slightly further) and has either hit in the crossbar or has been fancied to run well. He was the favourite for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival Plate handicap chase over 2m 4f, but for whatever reason he didn't fire that day, but he was smashed in the market, into the 100/30F Prior to that, he had finished 2nd/11, 3rd/5 and 2nd/12, finishing behind some decent horses who were ahead of the handicapper at the time like Ginny's Destiny and Inch House.

The finishes I've just mentioned were either off a mark of 132 or 134, and I'd deem them to be stronger than today's race, with well-handicapped horses. I can't see a horse who is ridiculously well handicapped in this race, apart from maybe Bob Bob Ricard as he is the horse towards the bottom of the weights, but based on what we've seen from him so far this season, he doesn't look like he is ahead.

The ground and track are to Theatre Man's liking, the trip is still an unknown, but the likely fast pace should be to his advantage.

Game Colours 10/1 EW (4pl) – Kelso 3.00

This Kelso card is a tough one to get stuck into, with competitive races throughout the day, but the Ben Clarke runner, Game Colours caught my eye for this race.

Ben Clarke hasn't been training for too long, but he has been getting a lot of traction in recent years and he does extremely well with the limited amount of horses he has in his yard. He tends to keep his horses to the southern tracks, and he has never sent a runner to the Scotland so seeing him sending this horse up as his first runner is very noticeable. He hasn't sent many horses to the northern tracks, but when he has done, they run very well.

He has had three runners at Carlisle, resulting in 1 win and the other two being placed. He has had three runners at Newcastle, yielding one winner and one runner-up, and then two at Catterick with no wins but both finishing in the places.

Game Colours managed to break her maiden tag on the sixth time of asking last time out, and she won in a very convincing style. It seems that two miles is the trip for her, as she looked at home over the minimum trip, winning at the first attempt of that trip, and winning by 17L to Rula Bula who is also lining up for today's race. It was soft ground last time out, but I don't think she has to have soft ground as she was placed on good ground on one of her PTP starts. She has only gone up 4lbs for the win, so with natural progression likely to come, and the trainer willing to travel with her, I thought she was a key player in this race.

Is This For Real 16/1 EW – Kelso 4.45

My final selection of Saturday is a bit of a punt, but also a horse I've put up previously. Is This For Real runs in the bumper at Kelso and I tipped him up for his debut run on Boxing Day where he was weak in the market and ran like the lack of money suggested he would. Prior to his run on Boxing Day, the vibes from the yard were that this horse was a decent recruit and is one to follow in the future, so I'm giving him another chance.

I like the fact that Fergal's yard has had a few winners in recent days, as his form has been very in and out this season. They do well when travelling with their runners to Scotland, and I think he has around a 30% strike rate with his runners at Kelso. Tony Bloom is a shrewd businessman and a shrewd horse owner, he bought this horse for 80K and he doesn't tend to have many runners this far north or in Scotland. His record as an owner is 2/4 and he had a placed finish at Kelso, so combining that with Fergal's strong form at the track suggests they are confident in a big run.

This is a decent size pot for a bumper race, with £15,609 going to the winner, and it doesn't look like a huge amount of ability is turning up, which makes me think that Tony Bloom and Fergal have spotted a good opportunity for this horse to return a decent percentage of the sales cost.

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