Both of Friday's horses ran to an okay level, but ultimately not good enough.
I think that both horses are still in the grip of the handicapper, and if they continue to drop, they will be winning races in the near future. I'd happily play the pair of them again, if they get the variables they need.
Rhoscolyn 11/2 – Goodwood 2.00
When I saw Rhoscolyn running off a handicap mark of 84, it caught me by surprise. I've been so used to him being in the high 90s for many years; I couldn't believe my eyes. This is a track that has been great for him, and it looks like the rain might come in time to make him a real contender for this.
There's every chance that Forty Years On is still ahead of the handicapper, but he didn't exactly beat a great bunch in his Class 3 win last time out. That might sound a tad unfair, but it wasn't a vintage Class 3 Newbury race that we know. Against seasoned horses and many course winners, I think he's a little short in the market.
Rhoscolyn has turned up to all the big handicaps at this venue throughout the years, winning many along the way. He has shown he can win over a mile and seven furlongs, so this trip is not a concern. Obviously, the form of this season is the main problem. He hasn't covered himself in glory, but his first run of the season showed that he can still mix it when he's on a going day.
Shay Farmer takes off a further 5lbs, meaning he is running off a handicap mark of 79. Danny Tudhope was never going to ride him, so if you're trying to look into the jockey bookings, I wouldn't bother. Danny isn't capable of making this low riding weight.
I'm not a big ante-post man, but I can imagine Rhoscolyn's odds would have been at least double the price he is now, and the forecast rain has seen them plummet.
Moon Target 7/2 – Sandown 2.50
At these prices, and based on what we know, you have to take on the favourite in this race. Calendar Girl would have been my selection in this if Moon Target wasn't running, but the solid form of Moon Target makes her a solid bet at 7/2.
How can a horse that was third in a Group 1 be second favourite for this race? I find that to be crazy. On form, the best horse in the race is Moon Target, but because a horse hasn't lost a race in three runs, she's priced up as the favourite for the first time she contests a Group 3.
Moon Target was second to Precise last year, narrowly losing at Goodwood. This year she finished behind Precise again and Blue Bolt, who are both proven Group 1 fillies.
Also, she is by Cracksman, so any rain that lands will be fine, and arguably in her favour.
Desert Shadow 7/4 – Sandown 4.05
I was extremely close to tipping up Desert Shadow on his last start over today's course and distance, but I bottled it. I massively regretted it when he hosed up and showed that my concerns about the heavy weight were wrong.
This is another step up for the Godolphin horse, but based on what we saw from him last time out, he looks more than ready for this task. He's not a big price, but I can understand why. It's not the greatest of races for a Saturday handicap, and he's the obvious contender who could improve a fair chunk.
Oisin has been in great form in recent times, and Saeed bin Suroor does extremely well with this type of horse. He has a wide stall to combat, but with a clear run, I think he wins.
GambleAware