Hickory Lad was mightily disappointing and was backed into 5/4 favouritism.
He enjoyed pacing prominently in the early stages of the season, which is why I don't understand the change in tactics. He was in trouble a long way from home and didn't show a turn of foot to get anywhere near the front three.
Luna A Inhis Nis wasn't the fastest from the gates, but she made up for it by getting to a joint lead in the early stages. She was one of the first to come under pressure, and I thought she was going to go backwards, but she is tough and battled. It looked like she was wheel spinning in the ground, and didn't seem in love with it.
Francisco's Piece ran well on the near side, when evidently they were on the wrong side of the track. Whether that was due to the pace on the other side or the ground was slightly better, who knows. He finished in the places, by finishing in sixth, and deserved to be at least in fifth or fourth.
Candy 20/1 (EW, 6pl) – Ayr 3.40
There are a few horses in this race that I've backed over the last twelve months, which makes it a difficult decision. Instead of giving those horses another chance, I landed on Candy.
Candy is a soft-ground lover through and through, so you've got to ignore his runs this season. Obviously, that's easier said than done, as he hasn't beaten a rival in his three starts this year, but he was horrendous on fast ground last year, and only hit form when the rain came.
He won the Silver Cup at this meeting last year, so we know he can come alive when getting his conditions. He won that race by over a length and put in a fairly dominant display. Based on jockey bookings, he's down the pecking order for the Spencer stable, but I'm not too worried. He is 20/1, and if he does come back to form, those odds are simply too big.
Starlust 9/4 – Newbury 1.02
Starlust isn't exactly a horse you can nail down your money and be completely confident in, as he doesn't win too often these days, but the fact that he's going close in Group 1 races makes him an attractive bet.
I struggle to see much opposition against him today in this race. The sprinting division is on its knees at present, but could you see any of these winning a Group 1 or being placed in a Nunthorpe like Starlust has? The answer to that is no. For that reason, he is worth the bet at 9/4.
GambleAware