The weather might scupper a good day of racing in the UK, with both Warwick and Kempton having 8 am inspections to see if the track is frozen.
If both meetings go ahead, we've got some good handicaps and Class 1 action to get stuck into.
Welcom To Cartries 2/1 – Kempton 2.05
He's not amazing odds, but I was expecting maybe 6/4 on Welcom To Cartries, so the 2/1 is deemed as value.
The Paul Nicholls chaser has always hinted at being a useful horse, but he hasn't always managed to show it on the track.
He got his first win over fences last time out at Sandown after denying the tenacious New Order, who put in a bold bid from the front. I tipped up New Order on his next run, and I think with a better jockey in the saddle, he would have won. I am sticking with the Sandown form.
There's no guarantee that He'll get the lead in this race, but I like how Harry Cobden rides Kempton. If they allow him to get free time in front, I think it's his to lose.
Rare Edition 7/1 – Kempton 3.53
It was extremely painful that Williethebuilder won over course and distance last time out, as I've put him up on the main thread or Lucky three times this season. On every run, he had hinted he was close to winning, but I deserted him when it mattered most.
Sure enough, he'll probably win again. Jokes aside, I think he's too high in the handicap now, despite an easy success last time out. Rare Edition back over hurdles caught my attention, especially back at this track.
He won a 0-140 a couple of years ago, around this time of the season at Kempton and did it off a mark of 136. He is running off 129 today, and gets a further 7lb removed from his back from claimer, Daire McConville.
This makes him very well-handicapped, and I think the switch back to hurdles will be better for him, as he hasn't taken to chasing.
A Great Excuse 13/2 – Warwick 1.15
He's racing slightly up in grade from his win last time out, but I think he can combat that with the step up in trip likely to suit.
A Great Excuse denied Superstylin, who was a horse I fancied tipping up. He stayed on powerfully at Lignfield and looked like a horse that would appreciate further.
He has gone up 5lbs for the win, which isn't a lot considering the runner-up has won by a landslide since. The step up in trip hasn't worked out in the past, but he looks ready for this move now, and Max Comley has had a solid season so far.
Hollygrove Cha Cha 5/1 – Warwick 1.52
Hollygrove Cha Cha was very nearly a selection for the main thread, and I think she is the one to beat in this race.
The final part of the statement above sounds daft, but she showed a good level of form at Carlisle before getting tired and not putting in the best round of jumping. She is a very talented mare on her day, and if she manages to stay the trip, she has a very solid chance.
She gets the mare's allowance, making life a little easier for her.
Given the form of the rest of the field isn't immaculate, with holes to be picked in every contender, she is well worth a shot.
GambleAware