Hopefully, Haydock can overcome a morning inspection as they are getting around -1 overnight and that is the concern for a frozen track. If it goes ahead, then we've got a great day of racing and I've picked out my four fancies for a Lucky 15 bet.
Rizzel's tips
Rockinastorm 2/1 – Ascot 1.05
It's not a surprise to see Rockinastorm being the clear favourite at the time of writing, as he is going for the hat-trick, and given the way he has done in the previous two races, he should be very tough to beat.
I didn't have a bet in the race he won last time out, but I did get to watch it at the time it happened and I was impressed in the manner he managed to win at Doncaster. He won like a horse who is in tremendous form and can win a couple of times without the handicapper catching up to him, and given that the handicapper has only stuck him up 4lbs for the recent win, I think that gives the Henry Daly trained horse every chance of winning a third race in a row.
The majority of the horses in this race are well-worn in terms of handicappers and aren't turning up in great form, whereas my selection is evidently in great form and I think it would be daft to go against Rockinastorm, even with the Venetia Williams horse being a recent winner, but that horse has David Maxwell in the saddle, which is often betting suicide.
Flegmatik 5/1 – Ascot 2.15
I think the safe option for this race would be to avoid it, as I think you can give at least another two (Kotmask and Scarface) very good chances of winning this, but that tactic isn't for me and I think that Flegmatik is worth a dabble for the Lucky 15 bet with him dropping down the handicap and is now running off a very low mark.
We know how good Dan Skelton is for getting one ready for the big prize handicaps, so with this being worth 52k to the winner, it wouldn't be a total shock to see this horse bounce back to form.
On his day, Flegmatik would walk this race off today's handicap mark, but he hasn't been in tremendous form for quite a while, whether that is by design, only Dan Skelton and the owners know. He will be running off second to bottom weight as Tristan Durrel takes off 3lbs from his fly weight of 10st 4lbs, and given he has run well at this track, on this ground and around this distance, he has to be going close IF in good form.
I think it's very hard to separate Kotmask and Scarface, so I might even chuck a few spare quid on the reverse tricast with my selection and the two I've just mentioned.
Josh The Boss 9/1 – Ascot 2.50
I'm fairly certain that I stuck up Josh The Boss for his last run in a previous Lucky 15 thread where he was sent off as favourite but ran a shocking race. I refuse to believe that was the true Josh The Boss and I think he deserves another chance.
Prior to the race at Haydock, Josh The Boss won a very good handicap at Chepstow, beating a subsequent winner by 4L, and those in the places behind have since won and franked the form, so it was a total shock that he was then well backed for the Haydock run, but ran so poor.
The Nigel Twiston-Davies team came out and said the ground was “too soft” for him that day, and that he would “prefer a faster surface”. The latter comment is something that they will get at Ascot, so there's no excuse for any below-par effort for him today, and for that, I think he has to be given at least one more chance as that Chepstow run was a great performance.
Royale Pagaille 15/8 – Haydock 2.30
It's probably very easy to overlook Royale Pagaille as he is now classed as an 11-year-old and will have to carry 12st to success on soft ground around Haydock if he wants to win this race for the second time. However, is the opposition really that good? I don't think so, and I'm happy to believe the Haydock specialist can make it a sixth career win at this track.
This horse has been a wonderful servant to the Venetia Williams stable and it is a rare horse owned by the Ricci's, who predominantly have their horses with Willie Mullins. He is 5/6 at Haydock, and has won two Betfair Chases along the way, with the last run being the second success in that race just 56 days ago. This horse is a menace at this track on soft ground, and he has shown he can carry big weights to victory in handicaps before as he won this race as a 7-year-old when carrying 11st 10lbs when thumping the opposition. Today will be a slightly tougher assignment as he is older and will have to carry 12st due to him having an official rating of 166. But as I touched on before, I'm not totally sold on the other horses in the field, whether that's there ratings, the trip or the ground and I think they'll have to be very good to beat Royale Pagaille, who has only been beaten by A Plus Tard at this track.
This is recommended as a win only Lucky 15 bet due to two selections being relatively short in the market.
