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Thursday was a disaster from start to finish with all three selections running considerably below par.

I couldn't find excuses for any of them, in the end, it was just one of those days. Day four of Ascot has arrived and I've previewed four races below, which include my four selections for day four.

Ascot 2.30 – Albany Stakes ( Group 3 ) – Royalty Bay 16/1 EW

The Albany Stakes opens day four of Royal Ascot on Friday and it looks wide open in my opinion despite a short-priced favourite heading the market. The Albany Stakes has thrown up some lovely winners over the years, Porta Fortuna under the guidance of Donnacha O'Brien in 2020, Meditate for Aidan O'Brien in 2022, and a personal favourite of mine in Sandrine, for trainer Andrew Balding in 2021.

Before I even studied this particular race, I looked at the prices of some of the previous winners over the years. It hasn't been a race for favourite backers, with only two favourites winning over the past ten years and neither of them significantly strong in the market with both favourites winning at odds of 4/1.

The favourites

On paper, Aiden O'Brien's Fairy Godmother is a worthy favourite but I'm not sure she merits a price as short as 13/8. Regardless, it's hard to not be impressed by her previous win at Naas which saw her reverse the form with Sparkling Sea who beat her on debut. She encountered traffic problems on that occasion and had to wait for racing room before making her challenge. I was impressed with her turn of foot and how she ate up ground on the leader, before eventually getting up towards the line.

Another towards the head of the market is Charlie Appleby's Mountain Breeze. Again, another horse who has impressed me in two runs so far but the form of the yard is shocking and is enough to put me off altogether.

Royalty Bay

For the reasons mentioned above, I've chosen to look elsewhere. My eye was continuously drawn to Royalty Bay from the J&S Quinn yard. She was an expensive enough purchase, when selling for £125,000 at the breeze ups, but started her career off with a bang when winning on debut at Ripon by 3L. She showed slight signs of inexperience on debut but once straightened back up she stayed on strongly, showing a nice attitude and turn of foot to get the better of Charlie Johnsons Substitute in the run-in.

Substitute contests in this race also and has Oisin Murphy on board. However, she's priced up at 66/1 and clearly isn't fancied to reverse the form with my selection. Most firms are offering four places, so the 16/1 that's on offer could represent some nice each-way value in this wide open contest.

Ascot 3.45 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) – Opera Singer 6/4

The second Group 1 of Day three of Royal Ascot is the Coronation Stakes which is run over 1m around the round course, contested by 3yo Fillies only.

Emalka

At first glance, you could easily say it's a good renewal as the 1000 Guineas winner, Emalka, turns up, but I don't think this is a great bunch of 3yo fillies, and I do think the short-priced Aidan O'Brien horse will be tough to beat.

Emalka sprung a big surprise when winning the UK 1000 Guineas at odds of 25/1 under Sylvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian. She was third on her first run of the season when finishing behind Folgaria (in today's race), so to see her improve to win the Guineas was a shock.

She was ahead of Porta Fortuna and Ramatuelle in the Guineas, and though they are both highly rated horses, the fact they were behind Emalka I think makes the form not particularly strong. After all, the latter was 2nd in a Group 3 before the UK Guineas and the former, though she is a Group 1 winner, has beaten horses who aren't really top class horses. On top of that, she was 2nd at the Breeder's Cup, which saw Context (Aidan O'Brien's 2nd runner in this race) a close fourth with a horrible passage through and she is far from the top level, so the level of form in this race from the majority of the horses seems to be massively over-hyped.

The other French horse, Rouhiya improved to win a Group 1 last time we saw her, having previously run at an 80 rated horse level, so props to her. However, once again, the form doesn't look strong at all.

Opera Singer

With all that has been said, it's not a surprise that Opera Singer is my selection. She is a Group 1 winner from Longchamp. The form isn't great from that race either, but she demolished that field by 5L, so at least she won with a serious amount of authority whereas the others in this field haven't managed to do that.

She was expected to go close in the Irish 1000 Guineas when going off at 7/2, and she ran a credible race to finish 3rd. She looked in need of the run, and there will be question marks about whether she has trained on, but I think she will come on for the run, and if Ryan goes from the front like he did in her Group 1 win at Longchamp, she could take some pegging back.

Ascot 5.05 – Sandringham Stakes – Hard To Resist 16/1 EW

The Sandringham, as expected, is wide open and finding the winner will be a hard task. Most bookmakers are offering six places and utilising the each-way side of things is probably the way to go.

Hard to Resist

Hard To Resist has been off the track for 238 days, which is my only slight concern, but it seems likely that this race has been the aim and she has more than likely been prepared for it in the background. She looks potentially well-handicapped for her handicap debut under the guidance of trainer William Haggas and jockey Tom Marquand.

She made significant progress by securing her first victory at Newmarket after finishing sixth in her debut race. Following this, she competed in a competitive Group 3 race at Goodwood, where she finished third. The top two finishers in that race are currently rated 109 and 110, based on which Hard To Resist looks strong enough to make her a possible player in this race.

My selection hasn't been seen since finishing fourth in the Group 3 Prix Miesque Stakes, however, it is worth noting that she was not far behind the eventual winner that day Tamfana, who went on to finish fourth in the 1000 Guineas. I think the combination of better ground and a larger field will play into her favour and there is a strong possibility of significant improvement for her.

Ascot 5.40 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) – Diego Velazquez 7/2

The penultimate race of the day is a Group 2 over 1m 4f for colts and geldings aged three.

This race is probably a lot closer than many other of the Group races, and that's mainly due to Aidan O'Brien's three horses not being head-and-shoulders ahead on form and the horses from the other yards could easily improve and go past them, but whether that will happen or not, time will tell.

Diego Velazquez

I've taken the approach that the best pedigree in the lineup will win and that is Diego Velazquez. Sometimes you can try your best to go through each runner and find a way to beat the ‘most likeliest' winner, but more often than not, it doesn't work and going with the best horse in the race based on ratings often comes up trumps.

Diego Velazquez shares the top rating with Mondo Man, and the latter was ahead of DV when they last met, but I'll talk about the French runner later on. Diego Velazquez is by Frankel and is out of a mare who has produced Point Lonsdale and Broome, both very good horses, especially Broome was a tremendous horse for Aidan and danced all the big dances across the globe.

Both of the horses I've mentioned stayed today's trip and won over further, so I refuse to believe that the French Derby run over 1m 2f at his first attempt over a mile was an accurate representation. Being by Frankel, you'd expect him to be better over this longer trip, with Frankel being known for producing strong stayers. Ryan Moore has decided to ride DV, and I think that's the correct decision.

Other strong candidates

I'll mention Mondo Man who is an interesting runner over today's trip as he is normally held up over shorter trips and the same comments can be applied to his strong finishing fifth in the French Derby. He could easily win this race, but I would be mightily disappointed if this horse with a much worse pedigree was supremely better than Diego Velazquez.

Space Legend will be strongly fancied to run well for James Doyle and the William Haggas yard, with Wathnan racing having a decent week at this meeting. He is a very lightly-raced horse with just three runs under his belt. He could easily improve again from his runner-up finish last time out and he'll have to if he wants to win as the form isn't out of this world.

I could easily see Theory Of Tides being well-supported for this race as he is 2/2 and made a nice impression at York last time out in a novice event, but to the eye, he looked like a nice horse to follow. If the money arrives, it could be very interesting.

Related Topic: Racing Tips
Horse Racing Tips
Royalty Bay
- 2:30 pm

16/1 EW @ Bet365

Opera Singer
- 3:45 pm

6/4 @ Bet365

Hard To Resist
- 5:05 pm

16/1 EW @ Bet365

Diego Velazquez
- 5:45 pm

7/2 @ Bet365

28 Comments
  1. hibee1 4 months ago

    Few quick stats for Saturday, as always feel free to pick out any that may help with your own selections.

    Roger Varians horses are running really well. Current strike rate of 25% in the last fortnight with 7 from 28. If you scratch all the Royal Ascot lottery type races from the form he has won his last 3 races and has won 6 from his last 17.
    31% strike rate at Redcar over the last 5 seasons with 11 from 35. This season 50% strike rate with 1 from 2. Last season 50 % strike rate with 2 from 4.
    2 runners at the track tomorrow, about an eight hour round trip for the yard.

    Nazron 4.55 Redcar Saturday

    Very likely my only bet over the weekend. Yard won this race last year with Russet Gold. He makes his seasonal reappearance tomorrow since he destroyed the field at Lingfield in October. Looked a one to follow . Had run really well in all his other runs. That win will have done his confidence the world of good no doubt.
    Yard know how to have them ready for their seasonal reappearance, Dosman, Enfjaar, Matsuri, Botanical, Mission To Moon, Aimeric, all are recent runners for the yard that have won on reappearance so not worried about fitness.
    Looks the type to really progress as a 3 year old.
    Should run a really good race. Ed Bethell runner looks the danger.
    Will be checking the early prices at about 4 pm as usual to see if there’s a bet to be had.

    Also keen on the yards other runner on the card, Russet Gold. He won at this meeting last year ( the race Nazron runs in). He was excellent on reappearance, only going down by half a length. The runner up, Billy Johnson, just ran as Ascot yester finishing 2nd to English Oak in the Bucking Palace. Expecting him to come on for that first run just as he did last year when running at Epsom then coming to this meeting and winning.
    Michael Dods runner is a big concern though, so I’ll probably not be getting involved. I’m sure there’ll be plenty having a little punt on the Roger Varian double still, should be about 10/1 so worth 50p of anyones money.
    Market could be a good guide to this race. I’ll still be checking those early prices to see if there’s a bet to be had.

    Good luck gentlemen for today and over the weekend

    9
    • hibee1 4 months ago

      Billyjoh** not Billy Johnson lol

      2
    • hibee1 4 months ago

      Nazron opening show 3/1. Rusett Gold 2/1. 11/1 on the double if my maths is right. All the best everyone over the weekend well done today gents as well

      3
  2. alex 4 months ago

    3:45 Elmalka 8/1 e/w
    4:25 Ziggy 12/1 e/w
    5:05 Arisaig 16/1 e/w
    5:40 Voyage 16/1 e/w

    GL

  3. busstop.2018 4 months ago

    Morning All

    MARKET RASEN

    17.10. .Spot On Soph. .took 2/1 last night again this morning but now about 6/4

    GL ALL

    6
  4. azzthewigan 4 months ago

    morliste 11.55 ew france

  5. azzthewigan 4 months ago

    perli chope 12.30 ew France well done all winners yesterday

  6. azzthewigan 4 months ago

    mountain breeze 2.30 inisherin 3.05 opera singer 3.45 ethical diamond 4.25

  7. azzthewigan 4 months ago

    the Euphrates 5.40 ew airman 6.15 ew

  8. juicin 4 months ago

    throwaway stakes for an interest

    14:30 – NAD ALSHIBA SNOW 50/1 0.25pts ew 4 places (16/1 for 8 places)

    17:05 – BATTLE QUEEN 20/1 0.25pts ew & FAIR ANGELLICA 11/1 0.25pts ew 8 places

    18:15 TOCA MADERA 33/1 0.25pts ew 7 places

    16:25 – DEAKIN 13/2 0.5pts ew & SHEER ROCKS 25/1 0.25pts ew 6 places

    • Wildhorse 4 months ago

      Full Agree

      This are stupid people , who have no owen opinion .

      I’m sure he lost many at Ascot , and is frustrated now .

      Clowns , better nor anwsering this guys .

  9. recoba 4 months ago

    First up at Royal Ascot I’m on Fairy Godmother with Skybet money back as cash fit a top 5 finish.
    🇺🇸
    Not bet an American horse yet and dunno if any came close or much of anything tbf since Illinois won
    Reading Wesley Ward stable tour last week Burning Pine (40/1 now from 20/1 🤦) was tried on turf almost by accident and took to it very well.
    He can ran 4 and 1/2 round a bend in 59.67 seconds “breezing from the gate” so if he can straighten up and fly right with Joel Rosario on board,dam good pilot who knows.
    Likely break well and then theres no breather or more a factor a spin of a bend to build momentum BUT W.Ward knows this so 20/1 sounded right but at 40/1 and 6 places I’ll have a small flutter.
    His sire Nyquist definitely means he has speed over longer to come

    2.30….Burining Pine 40/1 re Skybet 6 places **

    🇬🇧
    Opera Singer drifting big time and out to 3/1 with Williams Hill so used there ‘Epic Boost’ to make it 6/1 (£5 max bet or £5 Ew, no thanks) but I’ll take the 6/1 for win with £5…I think price come back in.

    GL rest of day gents

    3
    • recoba 4 months ago

      ⬆️
      * Ascot i- 2.30 is money back Top 5 BUT only 3 places EW although 4-5 places are available elsewhere.

      1
    • Seabiscuit 4 months ago

      Well done with fairy godmother

      2
  10. Seabiscuit 4 months ago

    Hot darling e/w 2.30 ascot

  11. Seabiscuit 4 months ago

    Orne e/w 3.05 ascot

  12. elvis parsley 4 months ago

    Nocturnal 5-05 Ascot 28-1 ew 8 places SKYBET 🏇

    2
    • elvis parsley 4 months ago

      Theory of tides 5-40 Ascot 16-1 ew 4 places.

      Big jump in class having won 2/2 in lower grade races but gosden has history in this race winning it 3 times.
      It’s his only runner, only drawback is the jockey shoemark who I don’t rate good enough to be a number 1 at a stable like Gosden’s.

      1
  13. recoba 4 months ago

    🇺🇸
    Beltarra Park -Race 1 …Sedatly 5/1 ***
    Ew if you please, 3 places

  14. dazzman1979 4 months ago

    Castle cove 🤔

    1
  15. Wildhorse 4 months ago

    Hi

    Ascot Day 4

    R . 5 – Kitty Rose & Asien Daze EW

    R. 6 – Calandagan EW

    R . 7 – Doney Lake EW

    BOL !!

    2
    • Wildhorse 4 months ago

      See you at the FINAL !!

      1
  16. foxwalker 4 months ago

    Worst tipster I’ve ever seen, been following your tips n thankfully haven’t wasted a penny, if you’re getting paid for these tips then its time for a rethink

    • Wildhorse 4 months ago

      You talking ME ??

      0
    • juicin 4 months ago

      be mad at yourself for not betting properly, or betting in a sport where you are totally clueless you rely on others. you haven bet on them but you’re angry and talking crap?? rightio.

      first you bet what you can afford to lose. next you operate with a bankroll. a bankroll should have 100pts in. bet the same amount each time and follow someone who knows what they’re doing, you CANNOT lose. as for cairnzy, as i stated previously, in a bit of a hole now this month, but nothing serious.

      month 1,, 63 chances to win, 15 came 2nd, lost 2 pts, WHICH IS NOTHING. not including TWO doubles and a treble totalling 37pts.
      month 2,, WON 0.47pts, 62 chances to win, 13 2nds. not including a 21PT DOUBLE.
      month 3 (june) losing around 12 points with plenty of time to sort it. 44 tips with 7 2nds. a 3pt winning double.

      horse racing isn’t easy. besides myself ;) there isn’t a single person who posts that is in profit. so stop crying and stop gambling.

      2
  17. dazzman1979 4 months ago

    Spot on soph well done 👍

    3
  18. Gateacre Pete 4 months ago

    Little ew extra on Highway Sixty One @ 55s top 4. 7.00 Down Royal
    GL

    2
  19. Super Wilf 4 months ago

    He ( Cairnzy) had a double up the other day Illinois and Auguste Rodin

    All the horses at Ascot are trying to win if it was easy everyone would be picking winners

    5

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