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Three selections from Epsom this Saturday, and one from Doncaster. Also, an antepost selection for later in the year.
With young Rossa Ryan recently breaking his collar bone, Oisin Murphy has picked up a nice ride on PATIENT DREAM in the opener at Epsom.
This previous course winner still looks to be on a good handicap mark, despite being raised 7lbs for his recent win at the Surrey based track. On the back of a 179 days break, it was a good performance, considering he took a keen hold throughout the race. The form of that race has worked out well, with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th all winning since.
Patient Dream will encounter an extra 1.5 furlongs today, which isn't a guarantee that he'll get the trip, but his pedigree and the way he powered through the lines suggests that it shouldn't be an issue. There should be a strong pace set, with the three Johnston runners all likely to be close to the pace, and that should allow our selection to settle.
At the pick of the weights, I think he is the one to beat. A couple who could run nice races are King Frankel and Camelot Tales, who shouldn't be overlooked despite an under par performance on his most recent run.
When tipping up horses, it's not the best idea to pick the high profile races, as they are generally the hardest ones to pick, but the price of HURRICANE LANE is too big for me to ignore.
Though the Dante isn't the race it probably used to be, it is still a good pipe opener for the Derby and similar races. Since 2000, the Dante winner has gone on to to win the Epsom Derby 4x, including winners like Golden Horn. The way in which Hurricane Lane won that race was in a strong staying fashion, and with a lot of the horses in the Derby with question marks hanging over their heads concerning the trip, I will be confident that Hurricane Lane will 100% get the 12f. The Dante was a good stamina test, with the Ballydoyle front runner blazing off, and Hurricane Lane managed to stay on the strongest to beat Megallan and High Definition (will come back to High Definition later on in this piece).
Being by Frankel and out of a mare who stayed 2m, there should be no stamina doubts about this horse. Whereas, the main market principals you'll have to question whether they'll stay the trip, or if they're good enough.
- Bolshoi Ballet was visually impressive lto, but is 6/5 and that price for a Derby is ludicrous, as I'm not too sure his form is what it's cracked up to be.
- Mohaafeth, was also visually impressive, but once again hasn't beaten anything of real quality.
- John Leeper, was always going to be well backed with the story behind the name, and now Frankie taking the ride; he is too keen for my liking.
- Mac Swiney, might want soft ground, and is a doubtful stayer.
Which leaves me with Hurricane Lane who seems a solid enough candidate. He's not a flashy horse, but you know what you'll get, and if he's not the Each Way play in the race, then I don't know what is.
Advised: Each Way
Silvestre De Sousa is probably my favourite jockey to follow around Epsom, as he seems to ride it better than any other, especially on front runners, which is why I'm backing GROUP ONE POWER.
SDS rode him when he won at this track in April, where he beat Soto Sizzler by 0.75 lengths. Soto Sizzler races against Group One Power again, but this time he is 4lb better off with our selection. Despite this, I still think the King Power horse will win, as that was his first run on the back of a 284 day break, so he was entitled to not be 100% for that race, and he has since run a belter at Ascot, where he bumped into the progressive Louganini.
Off a mark of 88 I still believe he is somewhat well handicapped, and there is more to come. The form of his Royal Ascot 4th has worked out well, and at the time you knew that race would work out in time, which it has. To name a few, Hukum (1st) is now rated 114, Subjectivist (3rd) is now rated 117 and is a Group 1 winner. If SDS can get to the lead, which he should be able to, then it could be very hard for the rest to catch him.
At the time of writing, Hasty Sailor is the market favourite, and I can see why as his run last season was very impressive, but RODRIGO DIAZ still looks to be on a nice handicap mark.
David Simcock's lightly raced Golden Horn gelding was very progressive last year, and he caught the eye on many occasions under a motionless Jamie Spencer. The form of his runs from last year have worked out quite well, with a few franking the form.
His seasonal reappearance was a good pipe-opener behind an odds-on shot, who looks to be a nice horse for this season, but Rodrigo Diaz pulled 5 lengths clear of the third horse, so he still looked ahead of his mark of 83.
Jamie Spencer and David Simcock normally do well when they come to Doncaster, so it wouldn't surprise me if we see a motionless Jamie Spencer again on this chap.
Doncaster St Leger (ANTEPOST)
My first Antepost selection for this thread is HIGH DEFINITION for the St Leger at Doncaster In September.
When I watched High Defintion in the Dante Stakes at York, I thought that he was extremely over hyped, as he was struggling quite early into the home straight, but the way he stayed on screamed to me that this horse is a true stayer, and a typical Aidan O'Brien Leger candidate.
Aidan normally sends over a few horses for the Leger, with a couple of pacemakers and that could be the plan for this year, as this horse will relish a true stamina test.
They've decided to swerve the Epsom Derby for this horse, and instead they've opted for the Irish alternative. Whether he'll win that or not, I'm not so sure, but if he does then his price for the Leger will drop drastically, so I think the time to get on is now. Capri is a similar type who went from the Irish Derby to the Leger and High Definiton gives that same kind of vibe.
Current Price 6/1 with Bet365
*DISCLAIMER* You will lose your money if the horse doesn't run in the race, unless NRNB (non-runner no bet) is stated with the bookies.
18:00 Kempton - Race: 4
18:30 Kempton - Race: 5