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One Hart was very weak in the market, going off at 20/1. He didn't run like they weren't trying, he was outpaced but got back on the bridle with at least 3f to travel, but as I mentioned yesterday, so many times when a strong pace is expected it just never happens and that was the case in this race, and the closers had no chance. One Hart got a very bad passage through the field, and ended up on the bridle behind a wall of horses, so I think he would've gone close and placed at the very minimum if he had a clear run, but I do think Hiatus would've been tough to beat as he got just as bad, if not an even worse passage.
Hereford 2:58 – Paseo 10/1 (0.5pt EW)
I think that Invincible Nao could be tough to beat if he stays this trip for the in form Gary Moore stable, but going up to 3m 1f from 2m 4f does raise questions and his price is far too short to get stuck into, especially off 12st. I thought it was worth a few quid EW on Paseo who is well handicapped on old pieces of form.
Paseo hasn't shown much since winning off this mark back in November 2022, he has finished 2nd once since then but has been running stinkers ever since. His handicap mark has dropped back down to his last winning mark of 89, which gives him a squeak in this race. I think it's interesting that Venetia Williams has opted to run him again just five days after a lacklustre performance, but it reminds me of a recent winner they had in the form of Desque De L'Isle. That horse was well fancied to run a good race, and eventually ran a shocker but they raced him like 10 days later and he won with a fair bit in hand. Paseo was well supported on his two previous starts this year, going off at 9/2 and 5/1, no I think they believe they do have him in the right place and it is a matter of time before he does capitalise on a falling mark. Charlie Deutsch takes over from Shane Quinlan who rode him last time around.
At 10/1 I think he is a decent EW bet, and the way that Venetia's horses have been running over the past 2 months or so, it is hard to rule out a return to form, especially at her local track where she is operating at a 30% SR with her chases in the last 5 years, equalling a profit of +23.98 to level stakes.
Hereford - 2:58 pm