Drop Dead Gorgeous put in an awful run, and clearly didn't bounce back to form as I was hoping.
A lot of the market fancies were disappointing in the race at Navan, and the winner was a horse I couldn't have backed, but did go off at 7/1. I'm not sure what they will do with Drop Dead Gorgeous on the back of that run, as it was very strange to see her not get close.
Zatsgood 7/4 (1.5pt) – Leicester 4.35
With around 9mm of rain expected to fall from the time of writing to when the race is off, the ground will likely be good to soft, or maybe even soft. Leicester isn't a track that takes the rain very well, so I'm expecting it to deteriorate. My selection is unknown on that type of surface, and has recently won on the all-weather, so that is the main reason I could see him drifting out.
A reason to be optimistic is that he is by Frankel, who has sired many soft ground horses, and his strike rate with his progeny on slow ground is very impressive. Some of his best performers, like Cracksman and Westover, were best on good to soft or worse ground. To add to this, Zatsgood's full brother, Delaware, was a listed winner on good to soft and a Group 3 winner on soft ground.
He is also stepping up in trip to 10f for the first time. I don't have any doubts about the trip. He won over a mile at Lingfield and was staying on. He hit the line hard that day, looking like today's added yardage will not be a problem. The form of the Lingfield race looks decent, so I expect him to overcome the 4lb rise in the handicap.
The third-placed horse finished second in a 22-runner handicap at York on his next run, and the sixth-placed horse was also a runner-up.
On paper, this race doesn't look the strongest. I thought Harry Eustace's horse was being overlooked at 7/1, and I'd be surprised if he isn't backed into second favourite.
This is George Boughey's only runner at the track today, and he has a 2/5 strike rate at this venue this year. In the last five years, his strike rate from 74 runners is 24%, recording a profit of +13.66 to level stakes.
To round it off, I would recommend backing him in the morning, as I do believe he will drift in the market. If he doesn't, and he shortens, I'm sorry 🤣.
GambleAware