Sunday's selections at the Curragh were poor, and the pick on Value Pending was atrocious.
Royal Bay Cen had a decent position on the rail, but wasn't able to quicken behind the leader. She'll be better off in handicaps or a Listed race.
4/1 was definitely not value on Value Pending, as she drifted out to 20/1 and finished in last place. Crazy drift, but it goes to show that she wasn't up to the level and they were chancing their arm at some black type.
El Matador 4/1 – Hamilton 3.29
I really believe that El Matador is ahead of the handicapper, but he has been a non-runner due to a couple of issues over the last month or so, which is my only concern. However, I think 4/1 makes him worth the chance.
I tipped a horse up on his last start when he ran on the all-weather at Newcastle, and I didn't rate his chances, but his run shocked me. He came flying at the end and was never going to win from the position he was in, as the race was benefitting those who were setting the pace or close to it. The fact that he got as close as he did showed that he has tonnes of ability, and I think it makes him well-handicapped.
He hasn't raced on ground this slow, and his runs on good to soft haven't been convincing, but he is a different horse since those runs. He is by Lope De Vega, who is a stallion that has produced many soft-ground horses.
They are keen to travel up to Scotland for this opportunity, and the yard is in decent form, winning two races yesterday to take their tally to eight winners in the last fortnight.
The main horse I was worried about was the second favourite, Impartiality, who likes this ground. The main problem for that horse is that he doesn't win a lot of races, and his handicap mark means he hasn't got much room for error.
City Captain 2/1 – Hamilton 4.04
It's a shame that this is over five furlongs, as if it were over six, I'd be all over Francisco's Piece, who I am a fan of. Since it's over five, I thought the pace of City Captain could be a big weapon.
He went close over six furlongs last time out when trying to remain unbeaten at the track, but he was narrowly denied. The front pair were lengths clear of the third, and that is normally a good indicator that they are ahead of the handicapper.
He is still unexposed as a sprinter, as he has done all of his racing over further than today's trip, and since moving to Edward Bethell's yard he has shown a rapid level of improvement. We know he handles the ground, and the venue is perfect for him; it's just the trip which is the question mark. In my opinion, he showed enough pace last time out to believe that this stiff five furlongs will be fine for him, especially with a strong pace likely to be set by the likes of Jordan Electrics.
GambleAware