Day one of the St Leger Festival went down like a lead balloon for my three selections.
Both King Of Earth and Itica fell away very sharply when push came to shove, and showed that they weren't up to the level required when running in a better race off a higher handicap mark.
Prizeland shaped with promise, and I think she wasn't favoured by the lack of pace on offer in her race. I'd be more than happy to back her again going forward, as I don't think we saw the race run to suit.
Nabati 7/4 – Doncaster 1.15
Sometimes we can get bogged down and overcomplicate things, and I am a prime example of this, shown as recently as yesterday when not backing the winner in the last race. I think Nabati has the best form in this race by a country mile, and 7/4 seems too big.
In races like this, the horses don't have a lot of runs under their belts, so by backing the favourite, you're prone to losing to an improver. However, the other horses in this have to improve a lot to get close to what Nabati has achieved.
Nabati was second in a good six-furlong Listed race at Newbury. He was sent off as joint-favourite for that race, and was only beaten by a neck to Arapaho Gold. The winner has since won a Group 2, and considering he is a gelding and Nabati is still a colt, I think that is a big help for the winner, especially for these young and inexperienced sprinters.
This is a furlong further than what Nabati has run over before, but he does stay on strongly over shorter distances, so there's every reason to believe he can improve for the longer trip.
Winday 6/1 – Doncaster 3.00
After getting my fingers burned by tipping horses when stepping up in quality, you'd think I'd have learned my lesson, but I was impressed by Winday last time out.
I tipped up Blue Hercules against him at Ffos Las, and he put him to bed like he was against Class 6 horses. I tipped up Blue Hercules the other day, and he did exactly the same as he did against Winday, so the form hasn't been franked by any means, but it was the manner in which he did it, when clearly showing that the trip at Ffos Las was severely too short.
Winday is a jumps horse, so this trip on the flat should not be an issue for him. He was off the bridle over 1m 4f at Ffos Las, and when he started to hit top gear, he motored clear. It's a risk backing him in this, as it's a Group 2 and it's over an unknown trip, but he is getting weight from the older horses, so it gives him every chance.
GambleAware