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The good form has taken a big dip in recent days, but this game is swings and roundabouts.
Both horses on Thursday ran exactly the same.
Both were held up towards the rear, never looked like winning, then stayed on at the finish to look better than they actually performed.
Inion Tiogair 4/1 (1pt) – Doncaster 2.33
I was very tempted by Dreams Fled Away as that horse is in great form at the moment, and gets the in-form Isabelle Ryder in the saddle. The one which caught my attention the most was Inion Tiogair.
At this level, and in this race in particular, I don't think there is a horse that is miles ahead of the handicapper. Inion Tiogair ran a very good race last time out, and if she had been closer to the pace, she might have had a chance of getting much closer.
This is a very rare runner at Doncaster for Grace Harris, who is based in South Wales. This is a long trek for a small yard, so they will not want to be coming back empty-handed, especially when the winning amount isn't great anyway.
The form of the recent runner-up ranks high on my list for today's race. The winner has won again since, and the third and fourth were arriving in good form prior to the Lingfield race, so she was ahead of the right horses.
The soft ground shouldn't be an issue given how well she ran on good to soft last time out, and she was a bumper winner on soft ground a couple of years ago.
Back it with Tote (no fixed odds)Impose Toi 7/4 (1pt) – Newbury 3.00
With the state of the stayer's division being as it is, which is fairly poor, a chance can be taken on Impose Toi to breach the gap to this level.
Strong Leader has been a winner for me on a couple of occasions over the years, but he's not a world-class horse, despite being a Grade 1 winner.
Nicky Henderson's progressive hurdler had a good season last year. He won at this meeting last year, before heading to the Coral Cup in March, only to be beaten by Jimmy Du Seuil.
Since then, he has gone to Aintree, finishing third in a Grade 3 handicap off top weight, and then second in a Listed handicap at Punchestown.
Last time out on seasonal reappearance, he won a Class 2 handicap on his first attempt at 3m off top weight. In fairness, he performed well at Aintree, which shows that he is capable of bridging the gap to the next level, beyond handicaps.
Today, he gets 6lbs off Strong Leader, and then on ratings, he has a cracking chance apart from Hewick, who was very poor in the Charlie Hall.
Back it with Tote (no fixed odds)Totesport placepot from Southwell
- 14.40 – Shader
- 15.15 – Alfa Kellenic
- 15.45 – Gunalt Wavelength
- 16.15 – Frantic
- 16.45 – Digub
- 17.15 – My Fermoy
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