EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Exeter vs Peterborough
Peterborough travel to Exeter at the weekend and this should be an entertaining game. The hosts have seen a match average of 3.13 goals so far at St James Park this season. They have found the net in 6 of 8 games and conceded in 6 as well. The hosts had a good home record in League Two last term and have carried that on this season with a record of W4-D1-L3. The Grecians have been playing well of late giving a very good performance at league leaders Plymouth where they twice took the lead before being edged out late on.
Scoring 1.75 goals per home game they have a good threat going forward with a xG of 1.50. Whilst their attacking output is that of a midtable side at home they do the best xG per shot in the division. This means that whilst they are creating loads of chance the ones that do fashion have a higher probability of scoring that any side in the league.
Defensively it could be better. Just seven sides concede more goals at home and only six sides concede more shots on target. Given the hosts have a xGA of 0.90 and concede on average 1.38 goals at home you have to fancy Posh to find the net here.
Posh are now W6-D1-L1 over their last 8 games scoring an average of 2.25 goals per game, whilst both teams to score have landed in 6 of these 8 and over 2.5 match goals in seven. You start to build a picture that there are generally goals in their games.
On the road they have a record of W3-D0-L5. So far across the eight games they have kept 0 clean sheets, conceding two or more on six occasions. For a side that has serious aspirations of promotion back to the Championship this isn’t good enough. Whilst their attacking output on the road is just above midtable their defensive metrics is well below midtable. Their xGA of 1.23 sits them 15th and 1.88 goals conceded puts them 21st.
With both sides good in front of goal and neither side defending that well we should see goals. Between them they have played 16 games with 10 seeing both teams score and 11 having at least three goals.
- We can back over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Betfair.
Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood
The Gas have scored an average of 1.50 goals at home and with matches averaging 3.38 goals. They have found the net in seven of their eight home games. Their attacking output is midtable at best, but they do have a habit of scoring goals with just three blanks all season with Ipswich and Barnsley on the road and Accrington at the Memorial Stadium shutting them out. However, they have now conceded 1.88 goals at home keeping just one home clean sheet this term and three in total.
At home it’s not great reading for their defensive metrics. An xGA of 1.3 with just 3 sides having a higher expected goals conceded rate, just two sides concede more goals, four sides conceding more shots and three sides conceding more shots on target. Not clever, but it does means there is normally goals.
Fleetwood sit just a point ahead of Rovers in the table with a record of W2-D4-L2 on the road. Across their eight away games their matches have averaged 2.25 goals with them finding the net in all eight and conceding in six. Their attacking and defensive metrics are midtable, although its worth pointing out that their shots on target from the box against is very poor. Fleetwood find a way to score and concede in almost every match and I can see a game here with plenty of goals
- Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 10/11 with Bet365
Lincoln vs Plymouth
Sticking the goals’ theme, I am going to back over 2.5 goals at Lincoln vs Plymouth. The hosts tend to be involved in games with few goals and the Imps home match average 2.0 goals, but they have found the net in six of their seven home fixtures with a record of W1-D6-L0. Defensively they have conceded in 5 of their seven games which means both teams to score have landed in five.
Their attacking and defensive metrics are poor, but they continue to score and concede at home, and I am happy to back the to add goals against a side that struggles for clean sheets on the road despite sitting top of the table. The Pilgrims have an away record of W4-D2-L2, but they have now conceded in six of their 8 away fixtures with an average of 1.75 goals conceded and the highest xGA in the division on the road. I have them 15th for shots conceded and 20th for shots on target and shots on target in the box against. However, at the other end, Plymouth average 2.13 goals score per away fixture finding the net in all 8 games. They are 3rd for shots taken and no side has more shots on target in the box than they do on the road.
Given that the Imps have scored in six of seven games and Plymouth have seen both teams to score in all eight away games the stats do suggest another goal heavy game despite Lincoln games being a little light so far.
- Back over 2.5 goals at 5.6 with Betfair
