England welcome Czechia to Wembley on Tuesday with kick-off scheduled for 19:45. Thomas Tuchel's side have responded strongly to losing their Nations League opener 3-2 against Spain, following that defeat with a 2-0 victory in Czechia and a 7-0 win against Croatia.
England showed plenty of attacking threat even in defeat against the world champions. Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane overturned an early deficit to put them 2-1 ahead before Kane missed a penalty which would have extended their advantage. Spain recovered to win 3-2.
A 2-0 victory in Prague followed, although Pavel Sulc's red card after 25 minutes had a major influence on the contest. England eventually made their numerical advantage count through Gordon and Kane. England recorded 22 shots, seven on target and 12 from inside the penalty area while generating 1.48 xG. Czechia managed six attempts and produced only 0.32 xG.
England then moved to another level in Croatia. The 7-0 victory was supported by an outstanding attacking performance. England generated 6.14 xG from 19 shots, with 16 attempts coming from inside the penalty area. They registered 10 shots on target, created 11 big chances and recorded 48 touches in the Croatia box. Kane and Bukayo Saka scored twice, while Jude Bellingham, Gordon and Morgan Rogers completed the scoring.
Czechia arrive at Wembley still looking for their first Nations League point after three consecutive defeats. Their campaign began with a 2-1 home defeat against Croatia. The underlying numbers supported the result, with Croatia generating 1.84 xG to Czechia's 0.92 and recording 16 shots to five. Czechia managed only four attempts from inside the penalty area.
The 2-0 defeat against England followed. The early red card makes that match difficult to assess in isolation, but Czechia spent long periods defending and generated only 0.32 xG. Their latest defeat came away to Spain. Czechia remained in the contest on the scoreboard and pulled one back through Jiri Slama, but Spain controlled the game and eventually won 3-1.
Those results leave Czechia with three defeats, three goals scored and seven conceded in the Nations League. They have conceded at least twice in every match. Their recent tournament record provides further concern. Czechia finished bottom of their World Cup group during the summer after taking one point from three matches. They drew once and lost twice, scoring two goals and conceding six.
Across their six World Cup and Nations League matches, Czechia have therefore recorded no wins, one draw and five defeats. They have conceded 13 goals across those fixtures. The challenge becomes harder at Wembley because captain Ladislav Krejci is suspended. Krejci started against both England and Spain and his absence forces another change in central defence, with Robin Hranac the likely replacement alongside Stepan Chaloupek.
How the bookies view it
England are 2/9, carrying an implied probability of 81.8%. The draw is 6/1, representing 14.3%, while Czechia are 15/1, giving them an implied probability of 6.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/15, implying 65.2%, while both teams to score is available at 7/5, representing 41.7%.
Head to head: Three Lions have a strong record
England have won three of the last four distinct meetings between the countries.
They recorded a 5-0 victory at Wembley in March 2019 before losing 2-1 in Prague later that year. England then won 1-0 at Euro 2020 before recording a 2-0 victory in Prague last month.
The latest meeting requires context because Czechia played with 10 men from the 25th minute following Sulc's dismissal.
England still had to wait until Gordon's 47th-minute header to take the lead before Kane added the second after 69 minutes.
England have scored nine goals and conceded two across those four meetings, with Czechia failing to score in the last two.
Player to watch: Anthony Gordon to continue his excellent form
Anthony Gordon has scored in all three of England's Nations League matches and produced his strongest performance of the campaign in the 7-0 victory over Croatia.
The Barcelona winger recorded one goal and one assist in 70 minutes, but his underlying numbers show the extent of his influence.
Gordon generated 1.37 xG and 0.86 xA, giving him 2.23 xG + xA. He attempted five shots, put four on target and recorded 10 touches inside the Croatia penalty area.
He also created four chances, including two big chances, while completing 40 of his 45 passes at 89% accuracy. Gordon completed three of four attempted dribbles and was not dispossessed.
There was room for an even bigger return. He missed three big chances despite scoring once, with his five attempts generating 1.37 non-penalty xG.
Gordon had already scored against Spain and then opened the scoring against Czechia in Prague. His partnership with Lewis Hall also worked effectively down England's left in that victory.
Predicted lineups
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford, Quansah, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, Anderson, Scott, Saka, Bellingham, Gordon, Kane.
Czechia (4-4-2): Kinsky, Sacek, Chaloupek, Hranac, Slama, Radosta, Kral, Macek, Lingr, Ambros, Hlozek.
Anything else catch the eye
England's attacking numbers make their team goals market more interesting than backing them at 2/9.
Tuchel's side have scored 11 goals across their opening three Nations League matches and have reached at least two in every game. They scored twice against Spain, twice in Prague and seven against Croatia.
The latest performance was particularly important because the scoreline was supported by the underlying numbers.
England's 6.14 xG against Croatia was generated almost entirely from open play, with their open-play xG standing at 6.08. They created 11 big chances, produced 16 shots from inside the box and put 10 attempts on target.
The individual performances also support the attacking improvement. Kane and Gordon have scored in all three Nations League matches, Saka scored twice against Croatia and Bellingham contributed a goal and three assists in Rijeka.
Czechia's defensive record gives England another opportunity to produce a high attacking total. They have conceded at least twice against Croatia, England and Spain, while the World Cup brought another six goals conceded in three matches.
Their Nations League performances have also shown how difficult they find controlling games against stronger opponents. Croatia produced 16 shots and 1.84 xG, England followed with 22 shots and Spain controlled their latest meeting.
There is also a significant difference in the wider level of the teams. England reached the World Cup semi-final before losing 2-1 against Argentina and then beat France 6-4 in the third-place match.
The Elo ratings show a similar gap. England are third with a rating of 2114, while Czechia are 51st on 1659. The reverse fixture remains the main argument against expecting three England goals. Czechia played with 10 men for more than an hour, yet England generated 1.48 xG and scored only twice.
There is stronger evidence for a bigger England total now. Tuchel's side followed the Prague victory by generating 6.14 xG and scoring seven in Croatia, while Czechia conceded three against Spain and now travel without Krejci.
England Over 1.5 team goals offers little at 30/100. England -2 on the Asian handicap is 7/9 but requires a three-goal victory for a full return.
England Over 2.5 team goals at 8/11 needs England to score three regardless of Czechia's contribution. A 3-1 or 4-2 victory lands the bet in the same way as a 3-0 win.
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