Italy seem increasingly consistent in their performances, and it looks as though Turkey are likely heading for a fourth consecutive defeat since the start of the UEFA Nations League. It certainly doesn’t help that they have never beaten the Azzurri.
The start may not have been pretty, but Italy’s progress under Roberto Mancini is noticeable. After thrashing Turkey a week ago, Italy managed a draw away to France, which would be considered a positive result for any team in the world.
The big question is whether they will continue to improve, or whether this is just a temporary upturn, but they will certainly be hoping for a better result at home following their defeat to Belgium.
There is nothing positive to say about Turkey’s form since the start of the World Cup. Following their early exit, they have now also suffered three defeats in the UNL, scoring just one goal in those matches.
Interestingly, they attempted a total of over 50 shots against their opponents in those three matches. This shows that there is plenty of creativity in the Turkish team, but the fact that they have scored only once highlights just how poor they are at finishing.
However, it also means that on a good day, they have enough potential to score several goals against any opponent.
How the bookies view it: Italy to get back-to-back wins
The odds before the reverse fixture were fairly close, with bookmakers giving the Azzurri a slight edge.
However, they dominated from the very start and secured a resounding victory, following which they are now overwhelming favourites for the second leg.
At the moment, you can back Italy at around 9/20, whilst Turkey are available at 21/4. A draw is also an option at fairly high odds of around 17/4.
Recent head-to-head: The Azzurri are undefeated
As we mentioned at the start, Turkey have never beaten Italy, either in an official match or a friendly. Their record is nowhere near positive, with 11 defeats in 15 matches (D4).
Players to watch: Esposito is making a name for himself
Italian defenders have always been formidable, but not usually because of their goal-scoring ability. Alessandro Bastoni is clearly an exception, having scored one goal in each of Italy’s last two matches and currently leading the team’s scoring charts in the UNL.
As for the forwards, the young Francesco Pio Esposito continues to put in strong performances and has, in total, three goals and two assists in his last seven matches for club and country. One of his goals and one of his assists came against Turkey in the reverse match.
Probable line-ups
Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Bastoni, Scalvini, Kayode, Fagioli, Tonali, Barella, Vergara, F. Esposito, S. Esposito
Turkey: Cakir, Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu, Akturkoglu, Yuksek, Elmaz, Aydin, Gul, Akgun
Anything else catch the eye?
Italy are showing significant progress, whilst Turkey appear to be completely disorganised at the back. It’s true that they’re creating chances and it’s only a matter of time before they put in a strong performance, but it’s unlikely to happen in Italy.
I expect to see another interesting clash between the two sides, featuring plenty of goals. The hosts don’t look entirely solid at the back either, so Turkey may score again, although I wouldn’t risk betting on it.
Over 2.5 looks like the safer option. Separately, I’ll be looking for Italy to score in the first half. In their match a week ago, they were leading 3–0 at half-time.
They’re unlikely to put in the same strong first-half performance, but they’ll certainly want to settle the match as quickly as possible and delight their fans.
GambleAware