The world champions are travelling to Croatia, aiming to deliver yet another crushing blow to the hosts, who may have had their worst week in history. The result seems a foregone conclusion, unless Spain field their reserves and experiment.
Croatia have not yet lost all hope of reaching the play-offs, but their last two performances will certainly leave a mark on their pride. Back-to-back defeats and a total of 11 goals conceded.
While the 4-1 defeat to Spain was something fairly expected, the 7–0 loss to England came as a complete shock to everyone. The pressure is certainly mounting, and these results are more likely to have a negative impact than to lead to a sudden improvement.
Spain extended their record run of matches without defeat in regulation to 41 with their victory over the Czech Republic, and that match could be described as a thoroughly routine win.
It is still too early to talk of a final, but at this stage it seems entirely logical that Spain will reach their fourth consecutive final in the tournament.
How the bookies view it: The Vatreni will suffer another heavy defeat
Spain would have been the favourites regardless of the pre-match developments, but following Croatia’s defeats, the odds are even lower than usual. At least for Spain, who are available at 3/10.
As a result, Croatia are available at a whopping 17/2 as the home side, whilst a draw is priced at around 21/4.
Recent head-to-head: Four in a row for La Roja
Spain have recorded their fourth consecutive victory against this opponent, with their last defeat having come away from home in the very same tournament back in 2018.
An interesting fact is that La Roja have yet to win on Croatian soil, having recorded one draw and one defeat there. However, their overall record shows eight wins from 12 head-to-head matches.
Players to watch: The Lamine Yamal show continues
You’ll no doubt see the same suggestion everywhere, because it’s simply obvious which player we should be focusing on right now.
Lamine Yamal has never been in better form in his young career, and has scored four goals in his three UNL matches so far. He has now scored a total of 12 goals since the start of the season, having played just 11 matches for club and country.
In principle, it’s possible that Luis de la Fuente might give him a bit of a rest, but given that he brought him off in the 46th minute against the Czech Republic, I reckon we’ll see him again, at least for the first half.
Probable line-ups
Croatia: Livakovic, Smolcic, Vuskovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Kovacic, Modric, Perisic, Sucic, Pasalic, Matanovic
Spain: Raya, Pubill, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella, Ruiz, Rodri, Olmo, Baena, Oyarzabal, Yamal
Anything else catch the eye?
Goals here seem a certainty. So far, no team has managed to keep Spain at bay, and Croatia look like a side with no defence. Against England, they looked as though they were a man or two short, even though they hadn’t had any players sent off. They played such a poor match.
As the odds on Spain are ridiculous, I’ll instead go for them to be leading at half-time. In all three of their matches so far, they’ve scored early goals, and in the last two they were comfortably ahead at the break.
GambleAware