Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth
Portsmouth are undefeated on their return to the Championship with impressive draws against Leeds at Elland Road and then a 0-0 draw at home to relegated Luton Town. However, this only tells part of the story.
The game against Leeds was very one-sided, with the Yorkshire team winning the xG battle 3.39 vs 0.94. Leeds won the shot count 22 vs five as Pompey scored three times from just four shots on target and two shots in the box, one of which was a soft penalty.
Pompey then entertained Luton at Fratton Park with the visitors having their goalkeeper sent off after 30 minutes. Before the sending-off, Luton were ahead on xG 0.78 vs 0.33, having more shots than Pompey. Despite playing an hour with a one-man advantage, Pompey ended the game with just 0.93, losing on xG.
Although teams have only played two games, I have Portsmouth in 23rd place on xPTS and no sides have a worse xGA, although that was mostly due to the Leeds match.
Middlesbrough have won one and lost one so far. They were worthy winners in their 1-0 home win over Swansea but were very unfortunate in their away defeat to Derby. Boro won on xG 1.55 vs 1.05; the shot count 22 vs three, with the Rams scoring with their only shot on target. Despite having only three points, the early standings have Middlesbrough at the top of xPTS and second on xG.
The hosts are third for xGA, while no side has conceded fewer shots. Therefore, we should see a low-scoring game, but Boro should come out on top.
- Middlesbrough to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.83 with Betway
Huddersfield vs Shrewsbury
Huddersfield Town have a 100% record from their opening two fixtures of their League One campaign as they look to bounce back to the Championship at the first time of asking. Victories over Stevenage Borough and Peterborough, along with a 3-0 routine win over Morecambe in the EFL Cup, have instilled confidence into a side that struggled last season.
Their two league games have been won by an aggregate of 3.31 vs 2.07 xG, and they have registered 32 shots while conceding just 15, the second-lowest in the division. The Terriers' back three, with Jonathan Hogg sitting deep, has contributed to a tight defence, with only three teams allowing fewer shots on target.
Josh Koroma tops the charts for most shots taken so far this season in League One and midfielder Ben Wiles sits just behind him, but with two goals already to his name.
Shrewsbury lost both their fixtures, 1-0 to Stevenage and 4-1 at home to Peterborough. These are the two sides that Huddersfield have already played and beaten this season.
Shrewsbury were one of the sides that many predicted to struggle this season and so far, there is little evidence to suggest otherwise. No side has a higher expected goals against (xGA) and none have conceded more shots on target than the Shrews from the opening two games.
It may be premature to look at any league standings, but they sit bottom on expected points (xPTS). Going forward, the picture isn’t any better. They have had the fewest shots in the league so far, with just 13 and only 23% of these have been on target. Shrewsbury have generated just 1.10 xG in total.
The Shrews struggle to create chances and defensively look likely to concede. They are travelling to face a Huddersfield side that have won both of their games whilst creating plenty of opportunities.
- Huddersfield win and over 1.5 goals at 1.73 with BetVictor
Doncaster vs Morecambe
Doncaster suffered a surprise defeat last time out losing in Wales to Newport. Whilst it may look like a poor performance the underlying data suggested a different game. Donny should have been out of sight at half-time, but a goal within two minutes of the restart changed the match.
This weekend, they return to the Eco-Power Stadium, where they have won nine consecutive games by an aggregate scoreline of 22 vs five, with 50% of these games having a clean sheet.
Doncaster have won the xG battle in their last nine home fixtures by a total of 12.99 vs 3.66 – an average of 1.44 vs 0.40. The xG score suggest Doncaster are efficient at home and this is further backed up by the fact that seven of their last nine wins at home have seen fewer than five match goals.
Morecambe have lost both their league games and the EFL Cup fixture, failing to score in all three. Travelling to face a Doncaster side that have allowed just 3.66 xGA in their last nine home games is going to be an issue for the Shrimps.
In their two league games this term, they have had just nine shots, two shots on target, and a total of 0.35 xG. Defensively, Morecambe have been much better than their attacking output. They have conceded only two more shots than Doncaster this season.
Morecambe manager Derek Adams will improve them, but this will take time, and this game will come too early in the season for Morecambe to claim anything from it.
- Doncaster win and under 4.5 goals at 1.83 with Betway
