The road to Roland Garros has well and truly shortened now, with the ATP Rome Masters representing the last significant pitstop ahead of the year's second Grand Slam.
Since last Monday, the best of the best on the ATP Tour have been squaring off at the Foro Italico in pursuit of clay court glory. And the upsets have abounded. First it was Casper Ruud, then Rafael Nadal, now Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev.
With the field blown wide open, who will prevail at this Masters 1000 event? Read on for our ATP Rome 2024 predictions.
Who Will Win the ATP Rome Masters?
Who’s going to be leaving with the silverware this Sunday? Now that just two men remain, there's only one bet we suggest. Here's our ATP Rome 2024 prediction.
Best Bet – Alexander Zverev to Win the ATP Rome Masters @ 3/10
We'll level with you: we weren't picking Alexander Zverev to win the ATP Rome Masters 2024 this time last week. The German's form on clay had been scratchy (4-3 on the European swing this year) and he hadn't had a big win in months.
Thing is, with so many seeds falling in Rome, a bet on Zverev to win began to make more and more sense. The No. 3 seed has prevailed here before in 2017, and made the final another time in 2018.
Now, with Zverev in the final against Nicolas Jarry, we say he's a clear-cut favourite to win.
The German has been playing some sharp tennis so far this tournament, and is only getting better too. Most recently, he took down a red-hot Alejandro Tabilo in the Rome semi-finals, coming back from a set down to edge the Chilean in a third set.
In the quarters, it was an in-form Taylor Fritz that he dispatched in impressive fashion, out-hitting the American with some brilliant baseline play.
Zverev has dropped just the one set all tournament. Up against a first-time Masters finalist in Jarry, who has played back-to-back three setters, we say Zverev winning this one is a no-brainer.
Who Are the Favourites at the 2024 ATP Rome Masters?
Rewind the clock a few days, and who was in the mix here in Rome? Here are the top 10 men’s seeds at the ATP Rome Masters 2024:
2024 Italian Open Seeds – Men’s Draw
- Novak Djokovic – ELIMINATED
- Daniil Medvedev – ELIMINATED
- Alexander Zverev
- Andrey Rublev – ELIMINATED
- Casper Ruud – ELIMINATED
- Stefanos Tsitsipas – ELIMINATED
- Hubert Hurkacz – ELIMINATED
- Grigor Dimitrov – ELIMINATED
- Alex de Minaur – ELIMINATED
- Holger Rune – ELIMINATED
Seeding is all well and good, but what do the bookies say about the field in Rome? Here’s how the outright odds lie ahead of the final day at bookmaker bet365:
2024 ATP Rome Masters Odds
- Alexander Zverev @ 3/10
- Nicolas Jarry @ 5/2
The elimination of Novak Djokovic has seen the ATP Rome Masters odds undergo a huge shuffle. Djokovic was a 2/1 favourite to win, and led the field by a country mile.
Now, Zverev is the favourite to win the title in Rome with odds of 4/10. The German was impressive in his win over Tabilo and Fritz recently. Since the exit of Djokovic, he has led the outright betting odds by some distance.
Our ATP Rome 2024 Predictions – Best Bets to Make Today
We’ve written a whole piece on the men's final, but here's a quick summary of the bets we say will pay today as Zverev takes on Jarry:
- Zverev to win @ 3/10
- Zverev to win in straight sets @ 1/1
Bottom line, we expect experience to come up trumps here in a big way. Jarry has done well just to make it this far, and he'll be tired from a huge fortnight. With significantly more court time than Zverev, chances are Jarry will flame out and hand Zverev a moderately easy win in the Rome final.
What Makes Our ATP Rome 2024 Predictions So Good?
Hesitant to trust the betting tips some random punter on the internet is giving you? Don't worry – we've kept our receipts. Check out these predictions we've nailed so far this tournament:
- Fognini to beat Evans in three sets @ 3/1
- Nadal to beat Bergs in three sets @ 7/2
- Draper to beat Borna Coric @ 4/5
- Fritz to beat Fognini in two sets @ 1/1
- Djokovic under 12.5 games against Moutet @ 4/6
- Medvedev to beat Draper @ 4/6
- Djokovic under 12.5 games against Tabilo @ 23/20
- Medvedev to defeat Medjedovic and over 19.5 games @ 19/20
- De Minaur to defeat Auger-Aliassime in three sets @ 11/4
- Fritz to defeat Dimitrov @ 4/6
- Tsitsipas to defeat De Minaur and under 21.5 games @ 6/4
- Jarry vs Paul to be three sets @ 11/10
We're well up against the bookies – and you could be too with these tips.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
