SEP 4: EURO 2016 BETTING PREVIEW

ScottBrown_Scotland

IT was a glory night for Wales on Thursday and Scotland will be hoping it’s their turn on Friday.

The Scots are in a Group D dogfight with Germany, Poland and Ireland and their trip to Tbilisi it’s just about a must-win ahead of the world champions’ visit to Glasgow on Monday.

Last time we travelled to Georgia they lost 2-0 but it feels different under Gordon Strachan and I’m backing the away win at 4-5 with McBookie.

Georgia have named a mainly young squad ahead of the World Cup qualifiers while Scotland have no injury problems and are packed with experience. Still a one-goal win is what I’d take – and almost expect – and that pays 12-5 at bet365.

Shaun Maloney is Scotland’s top scorer in Group D with four and the new Hull hitman is 17-4 at 888sport to add to his tally and 10-1 at Ladbrokes to net first.

Scotland have conceded the first goal in all three away matches in this group and that’s a concern but it was against better opposition. I can see them keeping a clean sheet this time and that pays 1-1 at William Hill.

Strachan will have one eye on Germany v Poland and hoping for a home win. The Poles beat their great rivals 2-0 away and will fancy their chances of avoiding defeat.

It’s time the world champs stepped up to the plate but a best price of 3-10 with bet365 and McBookie looks a bit short.

The Germans conceded at home to Scotland and Ireland and best bet could be both to score at 21-20 with boylesports.

In the final Group D game it’s a question of how many as Ireland travel to Gibraltar. The Irish should win by at least four and bookies know it with -4 just 8-11 with firms such as bet365.

Robbie Keane has been in fine form for LA Galaxy and looks a decent bet at 5-2 with bet365 and Betfred to score first.

Recommended Bets

Scotland clean sheet
(1-1, William Hill)

Maloney (Scotland) to score
(17-4, 888sport)

Keane (Ireland) to score first
(5-2, bet365)

7 Comments
  1. ryan 1 year ago

    Here are my Friday previews for 5 of the 8 Euro qualifiers and suggested bets.

    I will post my final “best bets” with stake suggestions late afternoon tomorrow.

    20:45 Faroe Islands vs N.Ireland – Prediction 0.1- Suggested Bets – Under 2.5 goals @3/5, Laffery to score anytime @6/4

    Northern Ireland have a wonderful chance to qualify for the finals in France next summer but they really need to try to get 3 points here against the not so awful Faroes who have surged up the FIFA rankings following their stunning double victory over a Greece side very much continuing the current tradition of Greek shame. What happened to 2004 eh boys?

    The Northern Irish are enjoying a tremendous campaign sitting 2nd in the group with 13 points and while they are odds on favourites to win here @8/13, I don’t think it’s a bet I’ll be taking, considering their usually woeful away form in years gone by.

    The visitors today had gone 16 away matches without a victory before they shocked Hungary in Budapest and followed that up with another away win, this time in Greece a month later but their overall away record in recent history is pretty awful with just 5 wins in 57 away games over 8 years and while they have obviously improved, I feel the 8/13 is too short considering their poor record historically.

    Ok, it’s only the Faroes but they showed not just in their wins over Greece but also in narrow defeats to Romania and Hungary that they are not the same pushovers they once were and while I hope the Irish can get the result they need, it won’t be in my best bets today.

    Kyle Laffery is in tremendous form for his nation with 5 goals in his last 5 caps, all in the qualifying campaign and if anyone scores for the visitors, it could well be the big man who is 6/4 to score anytime and that could be worth a punt with Lafferty proving to be a real handful as the lone striker.

    The more realistic bet for me is the under 2.5 goals market which pays at 3/5. Only 2 of Northern Ireland’s last 14 away games have seen more than 2.5 goals and I expect a similar outcome here with the visitors perhaps just sneaking it but I don’t think it’s going to be easy for Michael O’Neill’s men in Torshavn.

    20:45 Hungary vs Romania – Prediction 1.1- Suggested Bets – Draw @21/10 Under 2.5 goals @1/2

    Biggest game of the group on Friday sees top of the table Romania travel to Budapest to take on a Hungary side that sit just 2 points behind the Romanians in the chase for qualification.

    This is a game that looks certain to be low scoring in a group that has for the most part been very tight and lacking in goal action. Hungary have won 3, drawn 2 and lost just once while only scoring 5 goals in the process but conceding only 1. The very fact that Northern Ireland are the groups top scorers tells you all you need to know about this section and the recent history of these 2 sides suggest goals will certainly be at a premium.

    Hungary’s last 5 fixtures in the group produced just 4 goals with only 1 conceded, with 5 of their 6 fixtures in the group also going under 2.5 goals while Romania have seen only 8 goals scored in their 6 fixtures with all 6 games going under 2.5 goals.

    With all that is on the line, I can really envisage a tight, close and low scoring fixture that neither side will want to lose, so I’ll take the 8/15 on under 2.5 goals while I also quite fancy the possibility of a draw so it’s either 0.0 or 1.1. Take your pick on that in what could be one of my favourite dour draws of the weekend.

    20:45 Greece vs Finland – Prediction – Suggested Bets – No bets

    Two teams with really little to play for so this is a definite no bet fixture for me.

    International – EURO qualification Group I

    20:45 Denmark vs Albania – Prediction 1.1- Suggested Bets – Albania not to lose @5/4, BTTS @6/5

    Denmark take on another of the competitions surprise packages in Albania who travel to Copenhagen in fine spirits having won 3 of their opening 4 fixtures in the group.

    Both sides are locked on 10 points but the visitors do have a game in hand and will fancy their chances of getting a positive result in this fixture in which the Danes are considered 4/6 odds on favourites with the bookies despite Albania being unbeaten so far.

    Denmark have won 4 of their last 5 at home but only 2 of those were competitive games and going back a little longer they have just 3 wins from their previous 8 home qualifying matches and I’m not convinced that 4/6 represents a fair price for the Danes in a fixture that should be closely fought.

    It really has been a great campaign so far for Albania though with 2 stunning away wins in both Portugal and Serbia really sending out shock-waves cross Europe while they also took a point at home to the Danes and recorded a further win in their home contest with Armenia. Not only that but a win and a draw over next summers hosts France in friendly fixtures show that this is an Albanian team not to be under-estimated. They have lost just 1 in 7, that a 1.0 reverse in a friendly in Italy and they have every chance of finishing in either the top 2 or in the play-off position.

    The two bets to consider are BTTS and Albania not to lose. The Albanians have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games while they have only conceded twice in 8 games so I really fancy that they can take a point or better here @5/4 odds. BTTS is priced at a big 6/5 and is possible, considering the form of Albania but also the Danes strong home form which has seen them score at least one goal in 11 of their last 13 home fixtures.

    i fancy this one could finish level and I’m gonna try Albania not to lose @5/4 and BTTS @6/5.

    20:45 Serbia vs Armenia – Prediction – Suggested Bets – No bets

    Both sides have just 2 points between them, and have no chance to qualify so for that reason, there shall not be any bets here.

    International – EURO qualification Group D

    1800 CET – Georgia v Scotland – Predictions – 0.1 – Suggested Bets – Scotland to win @1/1

    Quite honestly, I really can’t bet on this fixture for a number of reasons. Well I can, only I really shouldn’t. It’s just not good for the heart.

    The bookies now seem to realise Scotland aren’t crap anymore and they have us priced at 1/1 favourites to win in Georgia. While one part of me feels it’s a good price because everyone else in the group has managed it so far, another part of me is absolutely terrified about this game, for obvious reasons and memories, and I doubt that having any potential bets riding on a Scotland win would aid my physical or mental condition should we fail to do the business.

    Quite simply, this fixture and the rest of this campaign mean more to me as a Scotland fan than any other fixtures in recent history. WE HAVE TO QUALIFY. It’s just that simple and my belief is that if we are to qualify, 3 points will be essential here. Nothing can be guaranteed from our next 2 fixtures at home to Germany and Poland and if we fail to win here it will surely result in 1 of those glorious failures we have gotten so skilled at.

    Still, I have been banging on about Scotland qualifying for over a year now having first tipped them up at 11/4 and I’m not going to change my tune now, especially as our odds are now 8/11 on for qualification so while I do expect us to win, is the 1/1 price a good one and should we take it?

    Scotland are good on the road under Strachan and with only 2 defeats in 15 fixtures, this is the most optimistic the nation has been about the team in many a year and that confidence is certainly being translated in the players performances since the appointment of ever popular Strachan. They have their swagger once again and are playing with real optimism and belief now and why shouldn’t they?

    Scotland have lost just 1 of their last 7 away games, that to Germany in the first game of this section but since then they are unbeaten having taken 4 points from Ireland and gained a precious draw in Poland as well as wins over Georgia and Gibraltar at home but it is the manner of the performances that has really raised expectations.

    Georgia are no mugs, particularly en casa but it remains to be seen if they will attack Scotland or whether they will be content to cede position and look to hit the Scots on the counter attack. I expect the latter and it could prove enormously difficult for us to break this side down if that should be their intention.

    The home fixture saw Scotland play some brilliant football but they only emerged with a narrow 1.0 win although in truth it should have been more comfortable than that. The Georgians aren’t a great team but they are undoubtedly to be respected although the Scots must be fully aware that all 3 of their rivals in the group have already won in Tblisi and a Scottish failure to do so here would be a serious setback that is not out of the question when you consider that the Georgians held France to a goal-less draw in qualifying 2 years ago, and also beat Croatia in qualifying 4 years ago. And of course in 2007…no, I won’t go there again.

    So do I have the balls to back Scotland in my best bets? I’m confident we are going to win and I would imagine the 1/1 on offer will shorten before kick-off on Friday so they might find their way on to one of my doubles or trebles but I don’t know if I could take a late Georgian goal to break both bets and hearts. Let’s wait and see.

    Much depends on the intent of the Georgians and I really do hope they come out and try to get at the Scots. This will allow our pacy wide men to counter effectively and if the match should play out in that form then I can see Scotland edging to a more comfortable victory than anyone would ever dream possible.

    In terms of team selection, I do hope that Ikechi Anya will be in the starting line up but once again it depends how deep the Georgians plan on defending their own penalty box. It could be a conundrum for Strachan but you would expect the speedy winger to be in the first 11.

    Brown, Morrison, Maloney and Steven Fletcher would seem certain to start but the final midfield berth and the full back areas are still up for grabs with Craig Forsyth surely set to be dropped after his poor display in Ireland. Steven Whittaker offers experience and attacking verve and should be in at left-back.

    Indeed Strachan has plenty of decisions to make regarding his team. Does Charlie Mulgrew start? and if so, where? What about Darren Fletcher? fully fit and playing games at WBA, his experience could be vital in a fixture like this but I have a feeling though that wee Gordon will be more adventurous that that tough and you might find Steven Naismith or Matt Richie starting with Maloney playing at the tip of the midfield three.

    In the end, Scotland should win but then again, how often have we said that? well actually, maybe not that often. Throughout this campaign I have felt utterly confident and almost expectant that Scotland would qualify but now with these crunch fixtures upon us, I have that traditional sense of Scottish doom. Is this going to be our breaking point? or will we rise like the lions we are and bring home the crucial 3 points?

    Friday will tell us everything we need to know about this Scotland team. Win this one and surely our dreams will come true. Defeat? well it’s not even worth thinking about.

    20:45 Germany vs Poland – Prediction 2.2- Suggested Bets – BTTS @11/10, Poland not to lose @11/4

    World champions Germany are as short as 1/4 to beat Poland here and while they should get the win that they need, it won’t be easy against an old rival that had the better of them 10 months ago in Warsaw.

    The competitions most keenly contested group is really hotting up and this fixture could prove vital in determining who it will be that qualifies for next summers finals and anything but a win for Germany will leave their own place in the tournament under threat with Scotland and the Poles in good positions to claim 1 or indeed both of the automatic qualifying spots available.

    Having dropped home points to Ireland and in Poland, the Germans cannot rest on their laurels and assume that qualification will just take care of itself. They HAVE to see this fixture as a must win if they are to be successful in their pursuit of the top 2 positions in the section. A draw here and a Scotland win in Georgia would have the Germans travelling to Glasgow on Monday night level with the Scots in joint 2nd position, knowing that another away trip to Ireland still awaits them. Make no mistakes, the Germans cannot afford to make any mistakes here, especially not to their old rivals Poland.

    The Poles have looked very dangerous in this campaign and were particularly impressive in their fine 2.0 win over Germany last year although they did of course struggle with the brilliant Scots who claimed a well earned point in Poland having lead 2.1 with 20 minutes to play but we have come to expect that from the revitalised Scots!

    Germany have been average so far and I’m certainly not backing a home win with a price as silly as 1/4. This is a good Poland team that have a world class striker in Lewandowski as well as the young and dangerous Ajax forward Millik, and they will be hugely up for this contest and I just don’t see them being remotely scared of the test to follow, especially considering the performances of both Scotland and Ireland in Germany.It is also worth remembering that the Poles are unbeaten in 3 meetings with Germany over the past 5 years.

    The Polish are also unbeaten in their last 10 fixtures, last beaten by the brilliant Scots in a friendly, and will travel to Germany with high spirits and with the rivalry that exists, I expect a hot tempered and highly competitive fixture that could see BTTS, certainly based on recent stats. The Germans have seen BTTS in 9 of their last 11 fixtures and in 7 of their last 8 at home with goals leaked in Germany against the following teams; Armenia, Cameroon, Ireland, Australia, USA and of course two of the stronger nations in world football, Argentina and Scotland. Stop laughing.

    While a home win is expected, I much prefer the BTTS odds of 11/10 with Poland scoring in 8 of their last 11 away qualifiers and Germany conceding a remarkable 21 goals in their last 15 home fixtures. They have only managed 1 clean sheet in 8 at home, and that to Gibraltar! They are still not resembling the team that won the World Cup last summer and for me, the 11/4 on Poland not to lose might be worth a sniff.

    In this campaign, the Poles scored 2 in Ireland, 7 in their away game with Gibraltar and 4 in Georgia while they have scored in 6 of their last 8 away qualifiers overall and with Germany’s defence really not impressing, I fancy the visitors to strike.

    You would assume Germany will score, having done so in 30 out of 33 home qualifiers this century so I’ll go with BTTS at odds against 11/10 as my best bet here.

    20:45 Gibraltar vs Ireland – Prediction -0.4 – Suggested Bets – No bets

    Given that I’m only previewing matches where either side has a realistic chance to qualify, I will be giving this one a miss. Sorry Ireland fans. Well, not really.

    Easy away win and a bench mark for Scotland to match in 2 months time.

    Suggested Bets

    Faroes v N Ireland – Under 2.5 goals @3/5
    Faroes v N Ireland – Lafferty to score anytime
    Georgia v Scotland – Scotland to win @1/1
    Hungary v Romania – Under 2.5 goals @1/2
    Denmark v Albania – Albania not to lose @4/5,
    Denmark v Albania – BTTS @6/5
    Germany v Poland – BTTS @11/10

    Long shots

    Poland not to lose @11/4
    Hungary v Romania – Draw @21/10

  2. O Ado 1 year ago

    Great write up
    I will put a nice bet on Albania to score 2 goals
    It is the blood
    I am happy to see u and my friend mr F r on the black and red Eagles

  3. Peter 1 year ago

    I saw a guy put up a mad treble Iceland, Poland and Slovakia I decided to do this bet patient bet €1 bet cost €7 returns = €1460 I smell an upset

  4. John smith 1 year ago

    Wow comprehensive write up ryan, cheers. I’ve taken Lafferty as 1st goal scorer as it may well be the only goal. I’m dithering on Scotland, they often fail against the minnows so i don’t know.

  5. 02ba 1 year ago

    I do like to back a side that has to win. So u know they are giving 100%. That side is definitely Scotland tonight. I feel they are well over priced. Il be on them tonight

  6. Gary 1 year ago

    Scotland win&under 2.5 goals
    12/5 bet365

  7. TFB 1 year ago

    Any thoughts on all the home nations to win @ 7.54 with BetVictor?

    Scotland will be a sweat but the others should do the job.

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