TUNISIA v ENGLAND
Live on BBC 1. Monday, June 18. Kick-off 7pm
MONDAY brings the start to England's World Cup campaign and whilst the nation sits in anticipation of the Three Lions roaring into action fangs bared, I'm too long in the tooth to expect a masterclass. Rather than Southgate's players tearing Tunisia apart, I can see a performance in Volgograd that dominates possession with limited end product.
I'll not talk about Englands' squad or starting 11 – there's been enough said about that already – instead it's worth focusing on where the potential value might lie. For what it's worth, I'm leaning on my England bet ‘de rigueur' – a market that's stood me well in the vast majority of recent internationals and one that stacks up well with the notion of English possession and the attacking wing-play we've seen from Sterling, Rashford and Co.
Corners can be a wicked mistress for the betting man but with the right ingredients on the pitch, they can prove the perfect pick. England's last 3 games have seen 10, 10 and 11 match corners with the Three Lions accounting for 9, 7 and 8 team corners in those respective matches. That's no coincidence and reflects the style of attacking football and pressure I think we'll see once more against a Tunisian side who know how to defend – they've had a decent warm-up campaign and have conceded just 5 goals in their last 6.
All of this points to a rising corner count and I'm siding with that rather than goals – all the while listening carefully for that Laurel & Hardy music to start up in the background to mark yet another England defensive/goalkeeping rick…there's always one!
- England over 6.5 team corners (5-6, bet365)
- Kane (13-5, bet365)
- Over 12 match corners (7-2, bet365)
- England win
- Over 10 match corners
- Over 1 Tunisia bookings
- (5-1, bet365)