There are some exciting second legs to look forward to in the last 16 of the Champions League on Tuesday, with some ties hanging in the balance and others destined for potential mouth-watering comebacks.
Manchester City, Chelsea and Sporting are all three goals down from the first legs to Real Madrid, PSG and Bodo/Glimt respectively, with the latter particularly catching attention from their fairy-tale journey so far.
Arsenal are also under pressure to win on home soil, after they were held to a 1-1 draw by Bayer Leverkusen in Germany.
Make sure to check out our expert and best betting tips from Tuesday's Champions League matches below:
Today's Champions League betting tips and predictions
Sporting vs Bodo/Glimt (17:45)
Sporting CP have a mountain to climb if they want to advance to the next round of the Champions League, but we’ve already seen that a team can come back from a three-goal deficit, even if we haven’t seen it happen against Bodo/Glimt specifically.
Click here to read our full expert preview for this match
Tip 1: BTTS
Sporting have nothing to lose and will play an all-out attacking game, which means they’ll be vulnerable to counterattacks. Bodo/Glimt have proven time and again that counterattacking is second nature to them—just think back to some of their goals against Inter Milan.
The Norwegian team has scored at least once in every away game in the Champions League this season. Even if they lose, which is quite likely, we expect them to progress.
Tip 2: Luis Suarez to score anytime
For the home side, we expect Luis Suarez to find the net at least once, given that he has scored at least once in each of his last five domestic appearances. The 28-year-old has already scored 31 goals and recorded four assists in 39 matches this season.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Tip 3: Over 9.5 shots on target
Manchester City vs Real Madrid (20:00)
Manchester City and Real Madrid will reconvene for the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie at the Etihad on Tuesday night.
Click here to read our full expert preview for this match
Tip 1: Vinicius Junior To Score or Assist
I suggested backing Vinicius Junior in the To Score or Assist market in last week’s first leg, and the Brazilian didn’t disappoint, setting up one of Federico Valverde’s three goals. The same selection at the Etihad on Tuesday night offers value at 6/4 on bet365.
Tip 2: Erling Haaland To Be Fouled Once or More
Manchester City will be hoping Erling Haaland can inspire a dramatic turnaround in this tie, though on current form the Norwegian’s 1/2 to score and 9/4 first goalscorer odds hold little appeal for punters. However, backing Haaland to be fouled at least once at 8/11 on bet365 does catch the eye.
Tip 3: Thibaut Courtois To Be Carded
Given the lead that Real Madrid hold heading into this week’s second leg at the Etihad, Thibaut Courtois could be worth a punt to pick up a card at 5/1 on bet365.
With Manchester City likely needing to push forward and play at a high tempo, the experienced Belgian goalkeeper may look to run down the clock whenever possible.
Courtois collected a yellow in a recent away game at Osasuna in La Liga, and another booking wouldn’t be a surprise here given the urgency City will bring to this clash.
Chelsea vs PSG (20:00)
Chelsea host Paris Saint Germain at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night in the Champions League round of 16 second leg with the French side holding a 5-2 aggregate advantage after the first meeting in Paris.
Click here to read our full expert preview for this match
Tip 1: Over 2,5 goals & both teams to be carded
The second leg between Chelsea and PSG at Stamford Bridge points strongly towards a match featuring goals and disciplinary involvement from both teams.
PSG arrive with the most productive attack in the competition. They have scored 31 goals across 11 Champions League matches from 233 shots with 85 on target. That attacking volume has also produced 44 big chances during the campaign.
Chelsea have also been effective going forward. They have scored 19 goals from 121 shots with 47 on target across nine matches. Their attacking play has produced 23 big chances and consistently forced defensive pressure from opponents.
Defensive numbers show why goals remain likely in this matchup. Chelsea have conceded 15 goals across the competition with opponents producing 33 shots on target against them. PSG have also allowed opportunities with 17 goals conceded across their 11 matches.
The game state of the tie also increases the likelihood of an open match. Chelsea must attack after the 5-2 defeat in the first leg, which naturally creates space for Paris to counter and generate additional chances.
The disciplinary profile of the first meeting highlights another strong trend. Chelsea recorded 23 tackles and 11 interceptions during that match while PSG committed 14 fouls. Defensive actions were required throughout the game as both sides attempted to disrupt attacking transitions.
With both teams producing high shot volumes, multiple big chances and regular defensive interventions, the combination of both teams carded and over 2.5 goals aligns with the overall statistical profile of this tie.
Tip 2: Both teams to score & over 2.5 cards
Both teams to score is available at 4/9, representing a 69.23% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen (20:00)
Arsenal host Bayer Leverkusen at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night in the Champions League round of 16 second leg with the tie level after the 1-1 draw in Germany.
Click here to read our full expert preview for this match
Tip 1: Arsenal win & over 2.5 cards
Arsenal look well placed to secure victory at the Emirates and the statistical profile of both sides also points towards a game with cards for each team and at least three total bookings.
The first leg in Germany showed Arsenal creating the better chances. They produced 1.64 xG from six shots and two big chances while Leverkusen generated 0.85 xG from 10 attempts with one big chance. Arsenal also controlled possession with 55% and created 26 touches in the opposition box.
Across the Champions League campaign Arsenal continue to produce strong attacking numbers. They have scored 24 goals from 21.95 xG with 141 shots and 65 on target. Their 46 big chances is also among the highest totals in the competition.
Leverkusen remain capable of scoring but their attacking output sits lower with 16 goals from 16.13 xG and 27 big chances.
Defensively Arsenal hold the edge. Opponents have generated only 7.02 xG across nine matches with five goals conceded and a shot value of 0.07 xG per attempt.
The disciplinary numbers are equally strong. Arsenal have collected 21 cards across nine matches which equals 2.33 per game. Their Champions League fixtures average 4.11 total cards and both teams have been carded in eight of those nine matches.
Leverkusen have received 19 cards across 11 matches and both teams have been carded in seven of those games.
The first leg produced seven bookings. With Danny Makkelie refereeing and both sides regularly collecting cards, Arsenal win, both teams carded and over 2.5 cards all align with the data.
Arsenal win, Arsenal over 1.5 goals & Arsenal over 0 cards
Adam is a freelance sports journalist who has worked for North Star Network since September 2023. He has also written for Football Whispers and Sports Mole as well as Mr Fixit's Tips (MFT), and you can find his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) column and other articles on the MFT website.
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