First up I've got to start with a dedication to Chris Wessling who passed away last night after a long battle with cancer. #FuckCancer – He leaves behind a wife, a young child and a hole in the heart of those who knew him.
I never got to meet him, or speak to him, other than the odd reply to tweets, but having listened to the ATN podcast for 5+ years now, felt like I knew him, they make you feel like part of the family and I've felt every step of Wess' journey these last few years, from his diagnosis, to beating it first time, to his engagement and wedding to Lakisha and I shed a tear hearing about the birth of their son Linc. This is terrible news and the out-pouring of love for Wess on twitter shows how loved and respected he was as a man.
I won't say he inspired me to write, but as a mail-man and Cincinnati myself, I appreciated the path he took. His writing and demeanour was unique, he said what he wanted to say, backed it up with hard facts and didn't kowtow to anyone. His long-forms were impeccable, his regular articles had his mark on them, you could always tell it was a Wess piece. If I can ever write something half as good I'll be happy.
Good bye Wess' you'll be sorely missed
To help Lakisha and his young family a Gofundme has already been set up and topped the $50,000 target this morning – to donate visit – https://www.gofundme.com/f/For-lakisha-and-lincoln
Right. On to the article. Idea is I pick my favourite multi-bets through the odds sections and give a little nod towards so value, or a game-script I think will play out
Obviously, these are more for interest than making money, when you're looking at 4-10 selections coming in to win a single bet it's always going to be tough, but there are opportunities for profits still, I had 300/1 4 TD scorer win a month or so ago, so it can be done, they just tend to come once in a blue moon.
A word of note: Always check the other bookies, especially on multi-TD scorers – You can usually find better prices on Paddy/Betfair than on Skybet. Skybet know they're popular and tend to snip the value.
Also, they're pricing up 1,000s of these markets – On the very first look they've got under 6.5 punts at 4/7 and at 4/6… make sure if there's something you like you look through the next few at the very least. (The odds on this are shit anyway btw, most books offer it as a regular bet at better odds)
Up to 5/1
I'm probably avoiding any that involve Bucs sacks, Mahomes has taken 1 in the post-season, the most he took in the regular season in one game was 4, he took 2 against the Bucs in the regular-season game. Admittedly the Chiefs OL has been beaten up and the Bucs were dominant against the Packers OL last week. But I'll be avoiding any sack related RaBs.
- Fournette 11+ rush yards in the first quarter –
8/15 – The playoff run has seen Lenny blow up, they seem to run him on down 1 and 2 a lot, 11 rush yards against an average rush defense seems fineScratch that, it's 4/6 on Paddypower
- 3rd Quarter to outscore the 1st quarter – 4/5 – This is 1.68 on Redzone, 1.53 on Paddypower – 1.80 on Skybet is decent – 1st quarters in Superbowls tend to be slow
- Each team to score 9+ in each half – 6/5 – You can take 10+ at 13/8, but I think this is great value, I mentioned it in the #Superbowl Countdown; Early looks thread and I'll mention it again here.
- Travis Kelce 100+ yards and a TD – 11/4 – I know a lot of people interested in this one, so I'm a little surprised it's not better than the 5/2 odds I posted in the thread above, he's 5/6 to go over 98.5 and 4/7 to score on Paddypower, that's way under 2/1 on their same-game multi (It's 13/8 on WillHill and 15/8 on PP)
- Each team to have a 4th down conversion – 3/1 – Separately you're looking at 4/5 for Bucs and 8/11 for Chiefs on Redzone, comes in a little over 2/1. I don't think there will be many punts, they're offensively minded coaches – 3/1 is probably priced right to be honest. Post-season has seen the Chiefs convert 3 of 3 4th down attempts, the Bucs 2-2 on them.
- Tyreek Hill 4+ recs, 50+ rec. yards and 10+ rush yards – 3/1 – You're basically getting 3/1 on Hill rushing for 10 yards.
- Chiefs -2, 53+ match points, Kelce anytime and Mahomes 300+ yards – 4/1 – A fair bit going on but a lot correlated. If you think the Chiefs win the game then you probably think this lands.
- Bucs win, Brady 220+ yards, win MVP and Fournette 1+ TD – 5/1 – Another correlated, it's basically Fournette to score a TD and Bucs win which comes in at 3.3/1 on Paddypower.
William Hill #Yourodds
- Actually nothing that takes my fancy on there that's not priced better on Sky
Terrible one first, the “both teams to convert a 4th down” listed above at 3/1 is 2/5 on there… oh dear.
- Chiefs Win, Brady 38+ Attempts, Fournette 3+ Receptions – 3/1 – Game flow if the Chiefs win suggests all that will happen. Decent price
- Fournette o10.5 1st quarter rush yards – as above, 4/6 here is better than the 8/15 on Sky.
- Chiefs win, each team to score 1+ TDs in each half & Kelce & Hill 3+ receptions each – 23/10 – Basically taking Chiefs win at 23/10, btts 1 each half is 8/13, Chiefs win is 8/13, that'd be 1.61/1
5/1 to 10/1
- Chiefs to Win, 50+ Match Pts, T.Kelce & T.Hill 1+ Anytime Touchdown Each & Mahomes Superbowl MVP – 11/2 – Seems a lot of stuff, but Kelce and Hill is 13/8 on Skybet, if the Chiefs win, I personally think it goes over the total and Mahomes is 10/11 or so to win MVP, it's all correlated. It's esentially Kelce and Hill at 11/2. IMO.
- Bucs u3.5 1st quarter points – 6/1 – Links with expecting a slow start in Superbowls. Brady and the Bucs have actually been scoring pretty well in the last 4 games, but Brady has only scored 3 points in 9 Superbowls, so I'll have a nibble at 6/1.
- Hill and Hardman 6+ rush yards each – 11/2 – Saw Roy post this on twitter, it's interesting, obviously you're assuming it's 1 carry each. In 17 games Hill has gone over 5 rush yards in 5 of them, Hardman has just 3 games with over 5 rushing yards, Hardman actually only has 6 carries all year. If you think they mix things up this much, then go for it, it's not one I'll be backing though.
- Buccaneers to Win, L.Fournette & T.Hill 1+ Anytime Touchdown Each – 7/1 – Prices up at 6.25/1 on Paddypower, I think the Chiefs win, but I've got to look at some value with the Bucs getting the win. Actually, sky have Lenny and Hill at 3/1 and Bucs at 11/8 which would be 8.50/1 if it was possible. Not great value.
- Chiefs 28+ Pts, Brady & Mahomes 200+ Pass Yds Each, Hill & Gronkowski 1+ TD Each – 7/1 – Hill and Gronk is 9/2 on Skybet, if you fancy that then you may as well go for this instead.
- Buccs +3, Mahomes U335 Pass Yds, Hill U92 Rec Yds, S.Barrett 1+ Sack – 9/1 – Another that's not for me, but I could seem the game-flow going this way if the Bucs do win.
- Tom Brady MVP, Tampa Bay to Win, L.Fournette & T.Kelce 1+ TD Each – 10/1 – 6.67/1 on PP – Kelce and Fournette 11/4, Bucs win 11/8 on Sky.
10/1 to 33/1
Obviously once we get here it's a LOT of speculation so they're even more for interest and a couple of quid to hope you get a lot correct.
- Both teams 2+ TDs in each half – 11/1 – Priced at 9/1 on PP, high scoring game expected, I'm a little apprehensive with slow Superbowl starts, but just highlighting the better price here than elsewhere.
- Chiefs to Win, 2nd Half the Highest Scoring Half, Mahomes 15+ Rushing Yards, C.Brate &Hardman 25+ Rec Yards Each – 12/1 – I think the Chiefs win, 2nd halfs are nearly always higher scoring in SBs, Mahomes should get his yards, Brate has had more of the ball in the post-season and it's arguably 1 catch for Hardman, a lot going on, but doesn't seem absurd.
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.5, Under 56.5 Points & T.Hill & C.Brate both to score a TD – 14/1 –
Pretty much everything I've gone for so far has been high-scoring games, Hill and Brate is going to be around 5/1, the other two are 5/6 shots…So… ignore that, it comes to 30/1 on Paddypower if you build it.
- Chiefs to Win, T.Kelce & P.Mahomes 1+ Anytime Touchdown Each, T.Hill 100+ Receiving Yards – 18/1 – Looking at around 15/1 on PP builder. – Hill has over 100 in his last 3 playoff games, Kelce has scored 3 in a row now, Mahomes has 1 in the playoffs this year.
- Gronk, Kelce, Hardman all to score – 25/1 – Comes to 15/1 on Paddypower. Gronk hasn't done a lot, but shows up in big game, Hardman the obvious wildcard here.
Obviously I wouldn't ever recommend betting on these, but they're ones I don't mind
- Each Team to score 1+ Rushing TD, 1+ Passing TD & 1+ FG in Each Half – 66/1 – This probably isn't one I'll be taking, but it's 12/1 on Ladbrokes which is embarrassing. I worry about about Chiefs having rushing TDs.
- T.Brady & P.Mahomes 1+ Anytime Touchdown Each, T.Brady 1+ Interceptions – 66/1 – Not terrible, it's 25/1 for them both to rush a TD, so you're getting the extra for Brady throwing an INT.
- Chiefs to Win, R.Gronkowski 35+ Rec Yds & 1+ TD, M.Hardman 50+ Rec Yds & 1+ TD. Miller 35+ Rec Yds & 1+ TD – 150/1 – Not terrible, could be one pass for Hardman and Miller, then you're hoping Gronk steps up in a big spot. (Priced at 100/1 on PP)
- Chiefs win, Under 56 points, Mike Evans & Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown, Patrick Mahomes to win MVP – 50/1 – Don't mind that, Evans has 2 in 3 playoff games, Fournette has scored in each. Would mean a narrow win for the Chiefs, but Mahomes and Chiefs win go hand-in-hand
- Fournette and Darrel Williams 2+ TD each – 90/1 on Paddypower, 150/1 on Skybet – Just a heads up if you've got both and fancied it.