West Ham United return to the London Stadium on Friday night after moving top of the Championship with a 3-2 victory at Bolton Wanderers. Wrexham make the trip after coming from behind to draw 1-1 with Burnley, extending their unbeaten run to four league matches.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have now won three consecutive games. They beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2 and Derby County 3-0 before Jarrod Bowen scored twice at Bolton, including the 77th-minute winner.
West Ham created 2.22 xG from 11 shots at Bolton, with seven efforts on target and every attempt coming from inside the penalty area. Their seven big chances were six more than their opponents managed.
The performance continued a strong attacking start. West Ham have scored 14 goals in six matches and are yet to draw a blank. They have generated 13.12 xG, averaging 2.19 per game, with 32 shots on target and 73 attempts inside the box.
Their three home fixtures have produced eight goals from 8.68 xG. West Ham created at least 2.05 xG in each game, including 3.79 during the 3-0 win over Derby. They have registered 22 shots on target and 46 attempts inside the box at the London Stadium.
Wrexham have taken six points from their last four matches after opening the season with a draw at Cardiff City and a home defeat against Birmingham City. A 3-0 win at Millwall was followed by draws against Swansea City and Burnley.
Phil Parkinson’s side generated 1.28 xG against Burnley, producing 15 shots, five efforts on target and five big chances. Jacques Ekomie headed their equaliser from Issa Kabore’s cross, although Wrexham missed four other clear opportunities.
Those numbers suggest Wrexham offered more than the final score showed. Their defensive record also remains strong, with five goals conceded from 5.46 xGA across six matches. They have kept two clean sheets and allowed under 1.00 xGA in four games.
The challenge is containing the Championship’s strongest home attack. West Ham have scored at least three times in their last three matches, while Wrexham conceded twice during their only previous game against one of the early promotion contenders, losing 2-1 at home to Birmingham.
Nuno accepted West Ham struggled to control Bolton’s movement between the lines. He felt his team responded with a much better second half and showed the character required to recover from 2-1 down.
Parkinson also spoke about balance after Wrexham’s draw with Burnley. He wanted his side to chase victory without leaving spaces which might have turned one point into none. A similarly measured approach is expected against opponents producing more than 2.00 xG per match.
How the bookies view it
West Ham United are 3/5, implying a 62.5% chance of winning. The draw is priced at 13/5, representing 27.8%, while Wrexham are 23/5, carrying an implied probability of 17.9%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/6, which implies 60%. Both teams to score is 8/11, representing 57.9%.
Head to head: First meeting for over 40 years
These clubs have not met since May 1981, limiting the relevance of their head-to-head record.
West Ham won both previous meetings at home by a 1-0 scoreline. The six recorded encounters produced three West Ham wins, one Wrexham victory and two draws.
Only two of those games contained at least three goals, but results from more than 45 years ago should carry little weight against the current performance data.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen showing his Premier League quality
Jarrod Bowen has scored five Championship goals this season after his match-winning double at Bolton.
The West Ham captain opened the scoring after 13 minutes before deciding the contest with his second goal in the 77th minute. His match-winning effort carried 0.42 xG and produced 0.73 xGOT.
Bowen also scored during the 3-0 victory against Derby and has now found the net three times across his last two appearances. Nuno highlighted his leadership after the Bolton win, stating that the captain sets the standard through his performances.
With Valentin Castellanos unavailable, Bowen’s attacking responsibility increases. He should start from the right but will have opportunities to move closer to Joel Piroe when West Ham have sustained possession.
Predicted lineups
West Ham United (4-2-3-1): Hermansen, Veltman, Mavropanos, Kilman, Scarles, Kante, Engels, Bowen, Mukasa, Solomon, Piroe.
Wrexham (3-4-2-1): Patterson, Cleworth, Hyam, Doyle, Kabore, James, Whiteman, Ekomie, O’Hare, Windass, Moore.
Anything else catch the eye
West Ham’s six league matches have all produced at least two goals. Four have contained three or more, while Nuno’s side have scored at least three times in each of their latest three fixtures.
Wrexham’s defensive record lowers confidence in backing over 2.5 goals at 4/6. They have conceded once or fewer in five of six matches, with three of their last four fixtures containing no more than two goals.
West Ham to win and over 1.5 match goals offers the stronger route. It avoids requiring Wrexham to score and still returns a winner with a controlled 2-0 or 3-0 home victory.
West Ham’s attack has created 20 big chances across its last four home and away matches, including seven at Bolton. Their defensive record leaves some risk, but the hosts hold a clear advantage in attacking output, squad quality and home chance production.
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