We walked away with one winner out of two fancies on Monday from Pontefract.
Dandy Magic was given a supremely confident ride by Laura Young, who continues to prove that she is a brilliant 5lb claimer and makes a big difference when she is in the saddle. She held Dandy Magic up and found the right passage through the field and won with a bit to spare.
Tyrrhenian Thunder was keen through the first couple of furlongs, and was green inside the final two furlongs. Both of which did give him reduced odds of winning this race, but I think there is a good horse in there on a very testing surface. He eventually finished second, and was beaten with ease by the winner, but he did do a lot wrong. I think he is one to follow next year when the rain arrives.
Absurde 7/4 – Curragh 3.35
I can't quite work out whether Absurde is the price he is because the bookies are trying to entice the likes of other punters and me, or if they are overlooking him.
Based on the fact that this race isn't a handicap, and Absurde is the best horse in this race by a country mile, I think I've got to tip him up at a price of 7/4.
Willie Mullins won this race last year with Sirius, who also runs in this race, and Patrick Mullins won it a couple of years ago. Sirius won this race whilst producing an RPR of 83, and the winner in the previous year got an RPR of 92. This shows me that Absurde, who has an official rating of 106, if he runs anywhere close to that form, would walk this race.
The concern for Absurde is that he was poor in the Irish Cesarewitch last time out, and his performances over the jumps last season were very poor. On the bright side, he did run solid races when he had a stint in Australia last year. Finishing 7th of 18 in a Group 1 over today's trip and was 8th in the Melbourne Cup.
Golden Pharaoh 13/2 – Yarmouth 1.20
Throughout the flat season, I've tried to avoid horses that are out of form and are appealing on the fact that they have fallen to a winning handicap mark. My first thought was that the consistent Pietro was a good price at 3/1, but I have fallen for Golden Pharaoh, who has dropped massively in price.
He was 20/1 at stages, but is now 13/2. I struggle to see him getting shorter in the market unless it is a real gamble. Based on how good this horse is on a testing surface, I can see why he is fancied to go well. He won a couple of races in Class 4 company on heavy ground around this time last year. We haven't seen him all that much this year, with just two runs to his name, both coming a couple of weeks ago.
He didn't run well in either of those races, but he might have needed those runs to get his fitness back in order. They've clearly waited all season long for a testing surface, and considering we had an extremely dry summer, those opportunities never came.
I could be getting baited in by him enjoying slow surfaces, but I didn't think this race was that strong, with many not liking the predicted ground.
GambleAware