West Bromwich Albion host Burnley at The Hawthorns on Sunday, with the clubs arriving after contrasting summers and opening performances. West Brom have built steadily on a strong finish to last season, while Burnley remain without a victory in normal time after needing penalties to beat Notts County in the Carabao Cup before drawing their league opener.
West Brom produced a clear home and away split last season. They averaged 1.45 xG and conceded only 0.72 xGA at The Hawthorns, compared with 1.03 xG and 1.17 xGA on the road. Their strongest performances therefore came at home rather than forming part of a consistent overall record.
That pattern was particularly clear during the closing weeks, with West Brom unbeaten across their final six home matches and keeping clean sheets in 67%. Their wider form was also strong, ranking fifth in the division across the final 10 games.
The summer brought targeted changes rather than a major rebuild. Felix Horn Myhre joined from Brann and Conor Townsend arrived on a free transfer from Ipswich, while Josh Griffiths, Daryl Dike and Jed Wallace departed.
Burnley's changes have been far more significant under Nicky Hayen, who takes his first job in English football after leaving KRC Genk. His reputation was established at Club Brugge, where he won the Belgian league and cup before reaching the last 16 of the Champions League.
Hayen has inherited a squad weakened by around £86m of sales. Maxime Esteve joined RB Leipzig, Jaidon Anthony moved to Brentford and Florentino signed for Ipswich, with Ugo Raghouber's arrival from Lille the main addition.
Burnley failed to win any of their six pre-season matches, recording two draws and four defeats, before overcoming Notts County on penalties in the Carabao Cup. Hayen described that performance as average, while captain Josh Cullen remains unavailable because of a serious knee injury.
West Brom opened their league campaign with a 2-1 victory at Norwich, although the underlying numbers were far less convincing than the result. Norwich won the xG battle 2.72 to 1.45 and created seven big chances, leaving West Brom heavily dependent on clinical finishing and important saves.
Their opening goal was also controversial, with Aune Heggebo appearing to force the ball over the line with his arm. Norwich head coach Philippe Clement believed the goal should have been disallowed and felt his side deserved to win based on their overall performance.
James Morrison offered a similarly honest assessment, admitting West Brom suffered for periods and required their goalkeeper to make several major saves. His comments matched the data, which showed a winning side regularly exposed by Norwich's attacking movement.
Burnley's 2-2 draw against West Ham produced the opposite relationship between result and performance. Hayen's side generated 2.10 xG compared with West Ham's 1.33, recovering from two goals behind during the final 18 minutes.
Zian Flemming scored both Burnley goals, including a stoppage-time equaliser, after Hayen encouraged his players to remain calm. The Burnley manager also accepted that West Ham currently possess a more mature team, highlighting the work still required within his rebuilt squad.
How the bookies view it
West Brom are 182/100, implying a 35.5% chance of winning. The draw is priced at 12/5 and carries an implied probability of 29.4%, while Burnley are 31/20 at 39.2%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 11/10, implying 47.6%, with both teams to score priced at 5/6 and carrying an implied probability of 54.5%.
Head to head: Draw on the cards again?
Seven of the previous 12 meetings between West Brom and Burnley since 2014 have ended level. West Brom have won three and Burnley two during that period, with the fixtures split between the Premier League and Championship.
Their latest meeting finished 1-1 in March 2025, while both teams have scored in six of those 12 matches. The high draw rate is particularly relevant when assessing the result markets for this fixture.
Player to watch: Zian Flemming to find the Championship a stroll
Zian Flemming scored twice during Burnley's opening draw against West Ham, converting a penalty with seven minutes remaining before turning home the equaliser in stoppage time. He also struck the post and narrowly missed the chance to complete a hat-trick.
That performance continued his reliable scoring record from last season, when he registered 11 goals across 29 appearances despite Burnley's relegation. One of those goals also came against West Ham, showing his opening performance was not an isolated success against that opponent.
With Josh Cullen absent, Burnley need other senior players to accept greater responsibility. Flemming's movement, finishing and opening-weekend form make him their most likely attacking threat at The Hawthorns.
Predicted line-ups
West Brom (4-4-2): O'Leary; Galves, Phillips, Campbell, Styles; Whitwell, Diakite, Myhre, Price; Heggebo, Morgan.
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Weiss; Sonne, Walker, Alleyne, Humphreys; Mejbri, Raghouber; Edwards, Ramsey, Bruun Larsen; Flemming.
Anything else catch the eye?
The difference between results and performances provides the strongest betting angle. West Brom won at Norwich but conceded 2.72 xG and seven big chances, while Burnley drew after producing 2.10 xG and limiting West Ham to 1.33.
One round is a limited sample, but the contrast was significant. West Brom required clinical finishing, disputed refereeing and strong goalkeeping to collect three points, whereas Burnley's result understated the quality of their attacking performance.
West Brom's excellent home numbers from last season deserve respect, particularly their 0.72 xGA and strong finish at The Hawthorns. Burnley also arrive with reduced squad continuity, a new manager and no captain, preventing this from being a high-confidence away selection.
The head-to-head record makes a straight Burnley win difficult to support, with seven of the past 12 meetings finishing level. Draw no bet removes the result this fixture has produced most frequently while retaining the visitors' stronger price.
The main bet is Burnley draw no bet at 4/5, implying a 55.6% chance. Their opening performance was better than the result suggests, while West Brom's victory concealed major defensive problems that Burnley's attack is capable of exploiting.
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