With AC Milan's eyes set on the Coppa Italia final, Venezia could be the more motivated side on the pitch, as their survival depends on the next five rounds.
Venezia have been their own worst enemy this season, having lost 28 points from matches they had the lead in – more than any other team in the league. The recent upset at Empoli could have even pushed Venezia out of the drop zone. The Winged Lions have five rounds to escape relegation and have one of the hardest schedules, including four teams from the upper half of the table.
Home games have been the only arguable positive in Venezia's season, since the team remains winless on the road. And while they won only four times at home, they have been at least decent defensively, conceding only 16 goals in 16 fixtures. Only a handful of teams from the top of the table can boast better defensive stats at home.
And then on the other end, we see AC Milan. On certain days, I Rossoneri play like one of the best teams in the world. Their last encounter with arch-rivals Inter is a prime example. They crushed them 3-0 to reach the Coppa Italia final earlier this week. So despite the poor overall Serie A performance, Milan still have a good chance of not ending this season empty-handed.
But I Rossoneri sit a whole eight points behind Lazio in 6th, which is an almost impossible deficit to make up in five rounds. Luckily, the Coppa Italia winner gets an automatic spot in the UEFA Europa League, so Milan can still get through Europe through the back door.
How the bookies view it: Venezia to welcome defeat
Bookmakers expect Milan to try and reach the Top 6 with a late winning streak, and give them a considerable betting advantage. You can pick Venezia at 9/2, the draw at 3/1, or AC Milan at 7/10.
Recent head to head: 25 years without a H2H win
Venezia have not spent many years in the elite and rarely get to meet the top teams in the country. This was their first season in Serie A since 2022, and before that, their most recent appearance was in 2002. All of the recent H2Hs with Milan had the same outcome – an outright win for the Red and Blacks. Overall, Venezia have a single win on record against Milan in nine H2Hs, and it dates back to March 2000.
Players to watch: Jovic is back in business
It took a while but Luka Jovic now has a guaranteed spot in the starting line-up for Milan. The Serbian scored his fist goal this season in late March, and has added three more in the four appearances he made since then. His confidence should be sky-high after his brace against Inter on Wednesday, so watch out for him against the Winged Lions.
Probable line-ups
Venezia: Radu, Cande, Idzes, Schingtienne, Ellertsson, Busio, Caviglia, Perez, Zerbin, Gytkjaer, Yeboah
AC Milan: Maignan, Tomori, Thiaw, Pavlovic, Hernandez, Reijnders, Fofana, Jimenez, Pulisic, Jovic, Leao
Anything else catch the eye?
Venezia will have little to remember this season with but perhaps the recent month has been the most memorable part. Eusebio Di Francesco's side has lost only one of its last eight fixtures in Serie A, which is a significant improvement, given they had already accumulated 15 losses before that. This means Venezia have been very tough to beat lately, and even Napoli, Lazio, and Atalanta couldn't do it.
AC Milan have arguably played their best games on the road this season, but we doubt they will throw everything at Venezia, given the circumstances. The hosts have more to play for at this point, as they only have five rounds left to escape relegation. And Milan conceded at least once in eight of their last 10 fixtures. We expect both teams to score, and there is a real chance we see another draw.
This Serie A match between Venezia and AC Milan will be played on and kick off at 11:30. Check below for our tipsters best Venezia vs AC Milan prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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