Tottenham Hotspur face Sydney FC at Allianz Stadium on Wednesday, kicking off at 7.45pm local time (10.45am BST), as part of the Sydney Super Cup, the same tournament that also sees Chelsea play in Australia this week.
Tottenham finished 17th in the Premier League last season on 41 points, a disappointing campaign that flirted with relegation. Their underlying numbers reflected those struggles, averaging 1.25 xG and 1.48 xGA at home, while a home xPTS total of 23.42 would still have ranked only 16th.
Sydney FC finished fifth in the regular A-League season on 39 points before reaching the Grand Final, eventually losing to Auckland FC. Their xPTS total of 39 confirmed fifth was a fair reflection of their campaign, although the underlying process was mixed. Their attack underperformed xG by 6.6 goals, while their defence conceded 11.7 more than expected, highlighting a vulnerability at the back despite finishing comfortably in the top half.
Sydney head coach Patrick Kisnorbo has described the fixture as a rare opportunity for his players to test themselves against elite opposition, calling it “a great opportunity” for a squad facing players they would normally only watch on television. Local supporters are expected to see James Maddison, Richarlison and Dominic Solanke, alongside several of Tottenham's high profile summer signings.
Tottenham arrive in Australia under Roberto De Zerbi, who took charge at the end of March and steered the club away from relegation before beginning his first full preseason in charge. The opening leg of the tour ended in a comfortable 2-0 victory over A-League champions Auckland FC in front of a New Zealand men's football record crowd of 40,112 at Eden Park.
Dane Scarlett bundled home the opening goal after 12 minutes before Mathys Tel, introduced after the hour, produced an excellent cut back for Richarlison to seal the win. Tel's own future remains uncertain, with Bournemouth among the clubs linked with the forward as he looks for more regular starts, making every preseason appearance significant.
De Zerbi deliberately kept workloads light following the long journey, telling TVNZ it was “a chance for the young players”. Mateus Fernandes, an £85 million signing from West Ham, was the only major summer arrival involved, while Sandro Tonali, Jan Paul van Hecke, Andy Robertson and Marcos Senesi were all held back.
De Zerbi has also confirmed Tottenham's transfer business is not finished, with further attacking additions expected before the window closes. He has been equally direct over Lucas Bergvall's future amid reported interest from Nottingham Forest, stating that any player unhappy with their role is free to leave.
Mohammed Kudus and Dejan Kulusevski remain sidelined through injury and did not travel, while Xavi Simons continues his recovery from the ACL injury that ruled him out of the World Cup. This is the middle fixture of a three match trip that began in New Zealand and concludes with a London derby against Chelsea in Sydney. Most players involved in the World Cup have been given additional time off, leaving Tottenham heavily reliant on academy graduates and fringe players once again.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing there are no odds available for this fixture.
Head to head: First meeting between these two sides
This will be the first meeting between the two clubs, leaving no previous meetings to analyse.
Player to watch: Richarlison could become main threat for Spurs this season
Richarlison came off the bench against Auckland to score Tottenham's second goal with a composed finish from Mathys Tel's cut back.
Reports suggest he is in line to start here, giving him another opportunity to build momentum before the Premier League season begins. Last season he scored 11 goals and added four assists from 20 starts across 32 appearances, producing 61 shots with 26 on target despite regularly rotating in and out of the side.
Predicted line ups
Sydney FC (4-3-3): Devenish-Meares; Rhyan Grant, Alex Grant, Tisserand, Garuccio; Quispe, Okon-Engstler, Campuzano; Quintal, Toure, Lolley.
Tottenham (4-3-3): Austin; Hall, Hardy, Takai, Kyerematen; Fernandes, Gray, Gallagher; Moore, Richarlison, Tel.
Anything else catch the eye?
Tottenham to win would be my early lean once bookmakers release the markets.
Tottenham's domestic form last season was poor, and with much of their World Cup contingent still unavailable, the gap between these sides is unlikely to be as large as it would be during the Premier League season.
Sydney FC will view this as one of the biggest fixtures in their recent history and have enough attacking quality to make life uncomfortable. Tiago Quintal and Al Hassan Toure both finished last season with five goals despite limited starts, while Piero Quispe contributed six goal involvements from midfield.
The difference comes at the other end of the pitch. Sydney conceded 11.7 goals more than expected during the A-League campaign, exposing defensive weaknesses that stronger opponents are well placed to exploit.
Even with an academy heavy side, Tottenham created plenty against Auckland, with Dane Scarlett and Richarlison both scoring, and the expected involvement of players such as James Maddison, Dominic Solanke and several senior summer signings would represent another significant step up in quality. If those players feature, Spurs should create enough chances to continue their positive start to the tour and justify favouritism once prices become available.
Treat this as another useful preseason exercise rather than a meaningful indicator of either side's prospects once the competitive action begins.
GambleAware