Swansea City host Birmingham City at the Swansea.com Stadium on Saturday, with kick-off at 3pm, in a Carabao Cup first-round tie that opens the competitive season for both Championship clubs.
Swansea finished 11th last season, extending their run of mid-table Championship finishes to five. Vitor Matos was appointed in November after Alan Sheehan's dismissal and steadied a side that had fallen as low as 20th before his arrival.
Their underlying numbers broadly supported the final table. Swansea posted 52.4 xG and 55.6 xGA, producing a model goal difference of -3.2, close to their actual figure of -2. Their 61.74 xPTS ranked around the middle of the Championship and sat only 2.26 points below their actual return of 64, confirming they were competitive without producing a genuine play-off-level campaign.
Zan Vipotnik was the standout performer, scoring 22 league goals to win the Championship Golden Boot. Swansea also reached the fourth round of the Carabao Cup before turning their attention towards another significant summer rebuild.
Joseph Opoku has arrived from Zulte Waregem, while Elijah Just and Moussa Yeo have also joined in deals believed to be worth around £15 million combined. Stephen Welsh has signed on a free transfer, although Ethan Galbraith's move to Stoke City for an eight-figure fee represents a notable loss from midfield.
Swansea are also believed to be closing in on Ross Stewart following his Southampton departure. His arrival would add further competition alongside Vipotnik, Adam Idah and Opoku, although it could also raise fresh questions over Vipotnik's future.
Birmingham finished one place above Swansea in 10th, collecting 64 points during their first season back in the Championship following promotion as League One champions. Chris Davies guided them to a top-half finish, but they ended nine points short of the play-offs after struggling for consistency across the campaign.
The underlying numbers were slightly more encouraging than their final position. Birmingham recorded 56.2 xG and 51 xGA, producing a model goal difference of +5.2. Their 65.83 xPTS ranked above their 10th-place finish and sat close to the level expected from a side challenging the lower end of the play-off picture.
Jay Stansfield finished as Birmingham's leading league scorer with nine goals after joining for a club-record fee exceeding £15 million. The total was modest for a side with play-off ambitions, contributing to another busy summer in the transfer market.
Jhon Solis has arrived from Girona, Luis Vazquez from Anderlecht and Kristoffer Lund from Palermo. Dael Fry joined on a free transfer from Middlesbrough, while goalkeeper James Beadle has re-joined on loan from Brighton. Reports have also suggested ownership expects Davies to establish Birmingham higher in the table this season, increasing the importance of a positive start.
Swansea's preseason began with a 2-2 draw against Holstein Kiel during their training camp in Austria, with Adam Idah scoring while Vipotnik missed out. A 2-0 defeat to Bochum followed before Matos's side responded with a 2-0 victory over Udinese, Elijah Just scoring on his full debut.
They completed preparations with a 1-0 home win over Leganes. Joseph Opoku scored from around 35 yards after Idah's pressing forced a loose clearance, while Vipotnik returned to the squad as a substitute after a quad injury kept him out of all three matches in Austria.
Ben Cabango and Stephen Welsh missed the Leganes game through mild illness, although Matos expects both defenders to be available for this tie.
Birmingham enjoyed an unbeaten preseason. They beat Huddersfield Town 3-1, Solihull Moors 3-0 and Burton Albion 1-0 before fielding separate squads in wins over Crewe Alexandra and Northampton Town.
Their final friendly ended in a 2-2 draw against Barcelona at St Andrew's, with Birmingham winning the subsequent shootout 3-2. August Priske headed them in front before Hamza Abdelkarim scored twice for Barcelona. Jhon Solis equalised from a set piece, while James Beadle saved the decisive penalty.
Davies was without Demarai Gray, Paik Seung-Ho, Taylor Gardner-Hickman and Marvin Ducksch. Gray's absence was precautionary, Paik was being assessed after a knock, Gardner-Hickman is expected to miss several weeks and Ducksch is still building his fitness, leaving all four as doubts to varying degrees.
How the bookies view it
Birmingham are 27/20, implying a 42.6% chance of winning inside 90 minutes. Swansea are 2/1, implying 33.3%, while the draw is 13/5, implying 27.8%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 17/20, an implied probability of 54.1%. Both teams to score is available at 7/10, implying 58.8%.
Head to head: History of goals and draws
Recent meetings have usually been competitive.
Birmingham won 1-0 at St Andrew's last September before the return fixture in south Wales finished 1-1. Zan Vipotnik gave Swansea a first-half lead before Patrick Roberts equalised after the break.
The clubs have also shared several high-scoring draws in recent seasons, including 2-2 results in January 2024 and November 2022. Swansea's biggest recent win was a 3-1 victory at St Andrew's in July 2020.
Their last meeting in this competition came during the 2013/14 season, when Birmingham knocked Swansea out at St Andrew's. Both clubs have League Cup pedigree, with Swansea winning the trophy in 2013 and Birmingham lifting it twice, most recently in 2011.
Player to watch: Just the ticket for Swans
The Motherwell winger arrived for a club record fee, having made 35 appearances last season, 32 of them starts, contributing seven goals and seven assists.
He marked his full Swansea debut with a goal against Udinese during the Austria training camp. With Vipotnik only just back among the substitutes after a quad injury and the rest of the summer's new arrivals still finding their feet, Just's early impact makes him one to watch as Matos looks to build an attacking identity around his new look front line.
Predicted line-ups
Swansea City: Vigouroux; Key, Cabango, Burgess, Tymon; Stamenic, Widell, Just; Opoku, Yeo; Idah.
Birmingham City: Beadle; Osayi-Samuel, Neumann, Klarer, Cochrane; Iwata, Solis, Vicente, Fujimoto; Stansfield, Priske.
Anything else catch the eye?
The season-long data gives Birmingham a narrow edge.
Their 56.2 xG and 51 xGA produced a positive underlying goal difference, while their 65.83 xPTS suggested performances closer to the lower end of the play-off race than their 10th-place finish. Swansea's numbers were far more neutral, with their actual points, xPTS and goal difference all supporting a genuine mid-table profile.
Preseason form points in the same direction. Birmingham went unbeaten across six matches, recorded five wins and ended preparations by drawing with Barcelona before winning on penalties. Swansea also improved as the summer progressed, but they are still integrating several new attackers and managing the fitness of Vipotnik, Cabango and Welsh.
The injury doubts surrounding Gray, Paik, Gardner-Hickman and Ducksch reduce Birmingham's depth, although Davies still has a stronger and more settled group available than Swansea's changing front line.
The market makes Birmingham favourites without pricing them prohibitively short. Their stronger underlying process, unbeaten preparation and greater continuity make 27/20 appealing.
My bet is Birmingham to win at 11/8.
GambleAware