Sunderland host Wrexham at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania on Sunday, kicking off at noon local time (5pm BST), in the final fixture of both clubs' three-city US tours.
Wrexham have been one of the stories of preseason. After a strong first campaign back in the Championship after 43 years, Phil Parkinson's side have faced Manchester United, Leeds United and Liverpool during their American tour, losing only once and proving far more competitive than many expected.
Last season's underlying numbers suggest there is still room for improvement despite that progress. An xGA of 1.35 per game ranked only 21st in the Championship, while an xPTS total of 57.85 placed them 14th despite generating 1.13 xG, the gap suggesting a side that created more than its league position reflected.
Sunderland's numbers tell a different story from a much stronger division. Their xPTS total of 39.68 ranked 18th in the Premier League, alongside the 18th-ranked xG and xGA figures of 0.98 and 1.56 respectively, while only one side registered fewer than their 122 shots on target. Despite that, Regis Le Bris guided the club to seventh place and European qualification, comfortably outperforming the underlying data.
Transfer activity has been relatively quiet after major investment 12 months ago. Sunderland's only signing so far is experienced full-back Thomas Meunier following his departure from Lille, with Le Bris making it clear stability is now the priority after 15 arrivals and a club-record £161 million spend last summer.
Several World Cup players have now rejoined the squad, leaving only Omar Alderete, Granit Xhaka, Chemsdine Talbi and Meunier still absent. Wrexham are yet to make a signing, instead releasing several senior players including Paul Mullin and Tom O'Connor while Parkinson continues to target reinforcements at wing-back, in midfield and up front.
The tour results have reflected those contrasting situations. Sunderland opened with a 5-1 victory over York City before Liverpool scored four of the final five goals to win 4-2 in Nashville after the Black Cats had taken the lead.
They then produced a competitive display before losing 1-0 to Leeds through Lukas Nmecha's early strike. Wrexham, meanwhile, drew with Wisła Krakow before beating both Manchester United and Leeds United, only for Rio Ngumoha's late deflected goal to hand Liverpool a narrow 1-0 victory in New York. Parkinson described that defeat as arguably their best performance of the tour.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing there are no odds available for this fixture.
Head to head: Sunderland edge it
The clubs have met only four times, all during the 1979/80 Second Division campaign. Sunderland won three and drew one, leaving Wrexham still searching for a first victory in the fixture.
Their last meeting came in April 1980 when Sunderland won 1-0 at the Racecourse Ground.
Player to watch: Brian Brobbey to continue last season's form
Brian Brobbey has started Sunderland's last two tour matches and, despite not scoring yet, has become increasingly influential. He finished last season with seven Premier League goals after forcing his way into the starting side during the second half of the campaign, ending the season as the club's first-choice striker.
With Wilson Isidor's future still uncertain, another strong display would strengthen Brobbey's claim to lead the line when the competitive campaign begins.
Predicted line ups
Sunderland (4-3-3): Ellborg; Hume, Ballard, O'Nien, Reinildo; Mukiele, Browne, Rigg; Mundle, Le Fee, Brobbey.
Wrexham (3-4-2-1): Ward; Vyner, Scarr, Doyle; Longman, M. James, O'Brien, Thomason; Keillor-Dunn, Rathbone; Smith.
Anything else catch the eye?
Wrexham have arguably been the standout side of the tour. Victories over Manchester United and Leeds, followed by a narrow defeat to Liverpool, suggest Parkinson's side are already close to full competitive level despite last season's underlying numbers indicating there is still room for improvement.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have carried enough attacking threat to trouble opponents but continue to look unsettled defensively, conceding five goals across defeats to Liverpool and Leeds.
Both sides have created opportunities throughout the tour and neither defence looks settled enough to trust. Sunderland are still reintegrating returning internationals, while Wrexham's attacking wing-back system has produced chances at both ends in every high-profile friendly.
Another open contest looks the most likely outcome, making both teams to score my preferred angle once markets become available.
Sunderland vs Wrexham Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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