Plymouth Argyle host Exeter City at Home Park on Monday, kicking off at 8pm live on Sky Sports, as the Devon rivals meet in the Carabao Cup first round. It is their first meeting in this competition since 1985.
Plymouth finished eighth in League One last season, missing the play-offs by two points under Tom Cleverley. Their underlying numbers suggest they were slightly better than that finish, producing 77.3 xG and 60.3 xGA for a +17 model goal difference, while their 69.79 xPTS was almost identical to the 70 points they collected.
The summer has brought one significant attacking departure, with 18-goal Lorent Tolaj joining Bristol City for £4m. Alex Hartridge, Murphy Cooper and Wes Harding are among the arrivals as Cleverley reshapes his squad.
Exeter finished 21st and were relegated to League Two. Their numbers supported the drop, with 56.1 xG and 70.8 xGA producing a -14.7 model goal difference. Their 53.47 xPTS was slightly better than the 49 points they collected, but still reflected a difficult campaign. Matt Taylor is now permanently back in charge, with Gwion Edwards, Taylor Perry and Josh Gordon added over the summer.
Plymouth finished preseason unbeaten. They beat Torquay 1-0, drew 0-0 with Championship side Bristol City and finished with a 4-1 victory at Tavistock. Bim Pepple scored the winner against Torquay, while Brendan Wiredu struck twice in the final friendly.
Exeter's preparation has been less convincing. An academy-heavy side lost 2-1 at Torquay before Taylor fielded a much stronger XI in a 1-1 draw with Bristol City. Reece Cole scored from 25 yards before Tomi Horvat's heavily deflected effort earned Exeter a late draw.
How the bookies view it
Plymouth are 8/15, implying a 65.2% chance of winning. The draw is 18/5 at 21.7%, while Exeter are 21/4 at 16%.
Over 2.5 goals is also 8/15, implying 65.2%, while both teams to score is 4/6 at 60%.
Head to head: Exeter have a strong record
These sides last met in the League Cup in 1985, when Exeter progressed 3-2 on aggregate despite losing the first leg 2-1 at Home Park.
Exeter also took four points from the two League One meetings last season. They won 2-0 at St James Park before a 2-2 draw at Home Park, where Malachi Boateng scored a late equaliser for Plymouth.
Player to watch: Bim Pepple to stake claim
Tolaj's departure leaves Bim Pepple with a bigger role in Plymouth's attack. He scored 16 goals in 37 appearances across all competitions last season despite starting only 24 times and has already opened his preseason account with the winner against Torquay.
With Will Evans unlikely to be involved so soon after his proposed move from Mansfield, Pepple and Owen Oseni should carry most of the attacking responsibility against Exeter.
Predicted line ups
Plymouth Argyle (4-4-2): Cooper; Harding, Ross, Mitchell, Hartridge; Curtis, White, Boateng, Amaechi; Oseni, Pepple.
Exeter City (4-2-3-1): Bycroft; Cummins, James, Fitzwater, Woodhouse; Cole, Perry; Oluwabori, Edwards, Cox; Wareham.
Anything else catch the eye?
The underlying numbers show a bigger gap between these sides than last season's league positions suggest. Plymouth's +17 model goal difference ranked seventh in League One, while Exeter were tied for 19th before dropping into League Two.
Plymouth also arrive in stronger shape after going unbeaten through preseason, including a goalless draw against Championship opposition. Exeter's strongest XI also drew with Bristol City, but the defeat at Torquay highlighted the lack of depth available to Taylor as he rebuilds following relegation.
The derby element adds some uncertainty, particularly given Exeter took four points from Plymouth last season, but the wider numbers favour the hosts. Plymouth have home advantage, remain a League One side and produced significantly stronger attacking and defensive numbers across last season.
At 1/2, the straight home win is too short for me. Adding a high goals ceiling improves the price without requiring Plymouth to win comfortably.
My preferred angle is Plymouth to win and under 5 goals at 1/1.
GambleAware