The last of the EFL play offs is on Monday as Notts County face Salford City at Wembley Stadium for the right to play League One football next season.
It is the first Wembley appearance for both clubs in recent years and the profile of this game points towards a controlled and tight contest rather than an open final.
Notts County finished fifth on 80 points and reached Wembley after edging past Chesterfield 1-0 on aggregate across two semi final legs. Martin Paterson's side progressed despite generating only 0.66 xG across the tie and spent long periods defending their advantage. Chesterfield produced 2.13 xG across the two matches and James Belshaw was required to make four saves in the second leg alone to preserve the lead.
Their away record of W11-D4-L8 reflects a side capable of finding results without dominating games. Their away over 2.5 goals rate and both teams to score rate both finished at 52%, although their semi final performance showed a very different side. On the biggest occasion of their season, they defended deep, protected space and relied heavily on organisation.
Karl Robinson's Salford finished fourth on 81 points and came through a more open semi final against Grimsby, winning 4-3 on aggregate. Salford generated 2.07 xG across the two legs and scored in every play off match.
Their home campaign was built around control. Salford recorded a 43% home clean sheet rate while their over 2.5 goals rate of 43% was among the lower figures in the division. Their away over 2.5 goals rate was also 43%, pointing towards a side regularly involved in lower scoring contests. With Wembley removing home advantage, their away profile becomes the stronger guide.
How the bookies view it
Notts County are marginal favourites at 7/4, implying 34% after the overround is removed. Salford are available at 37/20, implying 33%, while the draw sits at 23/10, implying 28%.
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 37/20, implying 35%, while over 2.5 goals is available at 59/50, implying 46%. Both teams to score and both teams to score no are both priced at 10/11.
Head to head: Salford continue to dominate
Salford have won six of the seven meetings between these sides with no draws recorded across the entire fixture history. Notts County's only victory came in September 2023 and they have failed to beat Salford since.
The overall score across those seven meetings stands at 15-9 in Salford's favour. While matches between the sides have averaged 2.86 goals per game, the expected goal totals before kick off averaged 3.60. The market has repeatedly expected more goals than these games have delivered.
The two meetings this season finished 2-1 and 2-1, although neither was especially open from an underlying perspective, producing only 2.56 combined xG. The scorelines looked more dramatic than the actual process suggested.
Player to watch: Kallum Cesay to record 1+ shot on target
Kallum Cesay arrives at Wembley as Salford's strongest attacking threat and arguably the most in form player in either squad. Across 33 appearances this season he scored seven goals and added three assists, producing 55 shots with 20 on target.
The play off numbers strengthen the case further. Cesay started both matches against Grimsby and registered a shot on target in each game, scoring in both appearances and playing a direct role in Salford reaching Wembley.
Two starts, two shots on target and two goals gives him the strongest recent profile of any attacking player involved in this final. Salford have also scored against Notts County in six of the seven meetings between the sides, adding further support to the angle.
Predicted line ups
Notts County 3-4-2-1: Belshaw, Ness, Bedeau, McDonald, Tsaroulla, Norburn, Robertson, Iorpenda, Jones, Luker, Jatta.
Salford City 4-4-2: Young, Mnoga, Oluwo, Cooper, Garbutt, Graydon, Butcher, Austerfield, N'Mai, Cesay, Udoh.
Anything else catch the eye?
Under 2.5 goals stands out as the strongest angle from the data. Salford recorded a 43% over 2.5 goals rate across the season and carried that same figure away from home. Their profile consistently points towards tighter matches.
Notts County generated only 0.66 xG across both semi final legs against Chesterfield and created very little against organised opposition. Across the two league meetings with Salford this season they created only one big chance.
Both teams to score no also carries support. Notts County failed to score in 22% of away games this season and their attacking process across the play offs has been limited. James Belshaw has been central to their progress while Salford have remained organised defensively throughout the campaign.
Everything around the occasion points towards a controlled final. Wembley finals are often shaped by caution and the numbers from both teams support under 2.5 goals as the strongest angle on Sunday afternoon.
GambleAware