The Championship awaits for either Bolton Wanderers or Stockport County as these two sides clash at Wembley Stadium on Sunday afternoon in the League One play off final.
Steven Schumacher's side return to Wembley looking to erase the memories of defeat in the 2024 play off final, while Dave Challinor's Stockport arrive after not conceding a goal across either leg of their semi final against Stevenage.
Bolton finished fifth with 75 points but their underlying numbers were stronger than their league position suggests. Their xPTS total of 79.96 was the highest of the four play off sides and pointed towards a team that performed at a higher level than the table reflected. Their semi final against Bradford highlighted the profile they have built this season. Bolton kept clean sheets in both legs and secured two 1-0 victories despite generating only 1.32 xG across the tie.
Draws were a major feature of their campaign. Bolton recorded 18 league draws, more than any other play off side, while six of their ten matches against top six opposition finished level. Schumacher's side have also carried strong defensive form into Wembley, keeping four clean sheets across their last five matches.
Stockport arrive despite dealing with significant injury problems. Top scorer Kyle Wootton was forced into a centre back role throughout the semi final and Dave Challinor's side still came through without conceding. Stockport finished third on 77 points despite an xPTS total of only 64.53, outperforming their underlying process by more than 12 points.
Their semi final produced three goals scored and none conceded across two legs against Stevenage, with the goalkeeper making four saves in the second leg to preserve another clean sheet. Stockport also held the strongest away record of the four play off teams, recording nine wins, seven draws and seven defeats on the road.
How the bookies view it: Bolton narrow favourites
Bolton are priced at 13/8, implying a 38.1% probability of victory. Stockport are available at 2/1, implying 33.3%, while the draw sits at 23/10, implying 30.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, implying 47.6%. Both teams to score is priced at 4/5, implying 55.6%.
Head to head: Stockport have held the upper hand
Bolton and Stockport have met seven times across all competitions, with Stockport winning three, drawing three and Bolton winning once.
The overall goal count stands at 15-9 in Stockport's favour and Bolton have not beaten Stockport in a league fixture across the five competitive league meetings in this sample. Matches between the sides have averaged 3.43 goals per game, with four of the seven meetings producing over 2.5 goals.
This season Stockport won 2-0 at Edgeley Park before the sides played out a 2-2 draw at the Toughsheet Community Stadium in April. Bolton have won only one of their last six meetings with Stockport across all competitions.
Player to watch: Oliver Norwood for 1+ shot on target
Oliver Norwood has been one of the most productive midfielders in League One this season, contributing eight goals and 11 assists across 43 appearances. His influence stretches beyond goals and assists, with 264 crosses completed across the campaign, the highest total of any player in this dataset.
The case for a shot on target is built around his role within the side. Norwood remains Stockport's primary set piece taker and in what is expected to be a physical final, opportunities from direct free kicks should arrive. Bolton committed 10 fouls against Bradford in one semi final leg and nine in the other, creating situations where Norwood's delivery becomes a major factor.
He also recorded one shot on target in the 2-2 meeting with Bolton in April and another in the second leg against Stevenage. With 13 yellow cards across the season, Norwood is heavily involved in all areas of the game and rarely drifts through matches unnoticed.
Predicted line ups
Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1: Bonham, Osei Tutu, Forino Joseph, Johnston, Conway, Sheehan, Erhahon, Cozier Duberry, Rodrigues, Cissoko, Burstow.
Stockport County 4-3-3: Addai, Dacres Cogley, Wootton, Pye, Edun, Norwood, Bailey, Barry, Stokes, Osborn, Olaofe.
Anything else catch the eye?
Under 2.5 goals stands out as the strongest angle based on the recent numbers from both sides.
Bolton generated only 1.32 xG across both legs against Bradford, producing 0.90 in the first leg and 0.42 in the second. They scored twice while keeping clean sheets in both matches and never looked like opening games up.
Stockport conceded zero goals throughout their semi final against Stevenage and their goalkeeper was required to make four saves in the second leg to preserve another shutout. Neither side has been involved in open matches during the most important stage of the season.
The head to head average of 3.43 goals per game works against the selection, but the two meetings this season finished 2-0 and 2-2. Bolton's 18 league draws, their six draws against top six opposition and the pressure attached to a Wembley final all point towards a cautious game.
Schumacher's side have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches and Stockport's injury issues have pushed them towards a more defensive setup. Everything from the semi final numbers suggests a controlled contest and under 2.5 goals at 7/9 stands out.
GambleAware