West Ham host Leeds United at the London Stadium on Sunday afternoon with survival on the line for the home side. Nuno Espirito Santo's team know only victory keeps their hopes alive, and even then they require Tottenham Hotspur to lose elsewhere.
It is a narrow route that shapes the likely approach here, with West Ham expected to push forward aggressively from the opening whistle. Leeds arrive under Daniel Farke in strong form, losing only two of their last 12 games, matching Arsenal's defeat tally across the same period.
West Ham's home campaign has lacked the consistency required to survive in the Premier League. Their W5-D4-L9 record at the London Stadium reflects a side capable of producing results but unable to sustain them. Defensively they have struggled throughout the season, keeping only two clean sheets from 18 home league games. Their home both teams to score rate of 61% highlights how regularly opponents have found a route through.
Leeds arrive with numbers that support their threat going forward. Daniel Farke's side have scored in 12 of their 18 away games this season, a 67% strike rate, while losing only twice across their last 12 matches. Their away defensive numbers tell a different story though, with only two clean sheets in 18 away games. The data points towards opportunities at both ends rather than one side taking complete control.
How the bookies view it
West Ham are priced at 17/20, implying a 54% probability of victory. Leeds are available at 33/10, implying a 23% probability, while the draw sits at 16/5, implying 24%.
Both teams to score is available at 13/20, implying a 61% probability. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/6, implying a 60% probability.
Head to head: Goals have been on the agenda
Goals have been a regular feature in this fixture. The last nine meetings have averaged 3.33 goals per game, with both teams scoring in seven of those matches.
Leeds have scored in eight of the nine meetings overall, including both meetings this season. Leeds won 2-1 at Elland Road in October before the sides drew 2-2 in the FA Cup in April. The wider head to head numbers continue to support Leeds finding the net again.
Player to watch: Taty to be involved all over the pitch
Valentin Castellanos stands out in the player markets heading into Sunday.
The Argentine forward has committed 30 fouls across 17 appearances this season, averaging 1.76 per game, while reaching two or more fouls in three of his last five starts. His six yellow cards across the season underline the intensity he brings, and in a must win fixture where West Ham need to chase victory, his foul involvement looks likely to increase.
The shot numbers also support him. Castellanos has averaged 2.71 shots per game across his 17 appearances and has registered two or more shots in 13 of those matches, a 76% strike rate.
Last week against Newcastle United he recorded eight shots in only 65 minutes, his highest total of the season. With West Ham expected to attack throughout, further shooting opportunities should follow against a Leeds side with only two away clean sheets all season.
Predicted lineups
West Ham 4-4-1-1: Hermansen, Wan Bissaka, Disasi, Mavropanos, Diouf, Summerville, Soucek, Fernandes, Bowen, Pablo, Castellanos.
Leeds 3-4-2-1: Darlow, Rodon, Bijol, Bornauw, Justin, Tanaka, Ampadu, James, Aaronson, Longstaff, Calvert Lewin.
Anything else catch the eye?
West Ham over 1.5 cards stands out strongly from the disciplinary profile. West Ham have received two or more cards in each of their last four home games and have recorded an 89% two plus card strike rate across their 18 home matches this season.
Their average of 1.94 cards per home game provides further support. Pressure has clearly influenced those numbers, with card counts increasing as the survival battle has intensified. Referee Anthony Taylor adds further support in a game likely to involve tactical fouls and frustration.
Leeds to score is supported by several strong angles. West Ham have kept only two clean sheets from 18 home games all season, while Leeds have scored in 67% of their away fixtures and have found the net in eight of the last nine meetings between the sides.
Daniel James and Brenden Aaronson provide pace and directness behind Dominic Calvert Lewin, and with West Ham expected to commit players forward in search of victory, space should open up for Leeds to exploit. The wider numbers support goals again in this fixture.
GambleAware