Nottingham Forest v Newcastle
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle

, KO: 14:00 , City Ground
Newcastle

Nottingham Forest will return to Premier League action when they welcome Newcastle to the City Ground on Sunday afternoon.

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After claiming a 1-0 win in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final against Aston Villa last week, Forest were unable to finish the job as they slumped to a gut-wrenching 4-0 defeat at Villa Park on Thursday night.

The one crumb of comfort for Vitor Pereira's side is their recent Premier League form, with Monday’s 3-1 win at Chelsea extending their unbeaten run to seven matches.

As a result, the Tricky Trees head into the weekend six points clear of the relegation zone, and another victory here would all but secure their top-flight status.

As for Newcastle, they will be looking to build on last week's 3-1 win over Brighton, which brought an end to a four-match losing run in the Premier League.

Eddie Howe's side remain in the bottom half of the table, but with the standings so congested, another victory this weekend could lift them back into the top half.

How the bookies view it: A tight contest in store

The bookmakers are finding it difficult to separate Nottingham Forest and Newcastle on Sunday, with both sides priced at 8/5 for a win with Ladbrokes.

Given that five of Forest’s last seven Premier League games at the City Ground have finished level, backing the draw at 13/5 with bet365 may be the smarter play.

Head to head: Toon tend to triumph

Across all competitions, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United have met 120 times. Newcastle lead the head-to-head with 58 wins, while Forest have 35 victories and 27 games have finished level. The Magpies ran out 2-0 winners in this season's reverse fixture, and the same scoreline on Sunday is priced at 14/1 with bet365.

Players to watch: Osula on song

Having hit the back of the net in three of his last four Premier League outings, William Osula looks worthy of support for either a goal or an assist this weekend at 6/4 with bet365.

One of the 10 yellow cards Elliot Anderson has picked up across all competitions this season came against former club Newcastle in the reverse fixture. The Nottingham Forest midfielder therefore looks good value to be booked again on Sunday at 7/2 with bet365.

Predicted line-ups

Nottingham Forest will once again be without the injured quartet of Callum Hudson-Odoi, John Victor, Nicolo Savona and Willy Boly.

After fracturing his fibula in training earlier this week, Lewis Miley has joined Emil Krafth, Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento in the Magpies’ medical room.

Nottingham Forest: Sels; Cunha, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Anderson, Yates; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Ndoye; Awoniyi

Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Tonali, Guimaraes; Barnes, Willock, Joelinton; Osula

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Under 2.5 goals

Nottingham Forest have been one of the most defensively resolute sides at home this season and the data makes a compelling case for this fixture producing fewer than three goals on Sunday afternoon.

Forest's home record in recent weeks has been built on defensive organisation and control rather than attacking flair. Their home both teams to score rate stands at just 25% across their last four home games, meaning both teams have scored in only one of those four fixtures at the City Ground.

Their home failed to score rate of 53% across the season underlines how regularly opposing sides have failed to score against them on their own patch, and their home xGA of 1.19 across the last eight games reflects a side that consistently limits the quality of chances they concede.

Newcastle present the ideal opposition for this selection to land. Their away scoring record has been among the worst in the division, winning just three away xG battles in their last eight games and creating just two big chances in their last four away fixtures. They have failed to score in 41% of their away games this season and their away xPTS of just 3.38 in the last four away matches reflects a side with very little attacking threat on the road.

With Forest's defensive discipline at home meeting Newcastle's chronic inability to score away from home, under 2.5 goals is a well-priced selection with the data firmly on its side.

Anything else catch the eye?

The aforementioned William Osula also looks worth backing to commit two or more fouls at 11/10 with bet365.

Across Newcastle’s last four Premier League matches, the Danish forward has been penalised a combined total of eight times.

Notably, the Newcastle attacker has been guilty of exactly three offences in two of those contests, so a repeat here could also be worth a look at 10/3 with bet365.

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Betting Tips & Predictions
William Osula To Score or Assist
6/4
Bet365
William Osula To Commit 2+ Fouls
11/10
Bet365
Elliot Anderson To Be Carded
7/2
Bet365
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