Monday night football brings the second leg of the Championship play off semi final as Millwall host Hull City at The Den, with an 8pm kick off and a place at Wembley at stake.
The tie remains level after a tense 0-0 first leg at the MKM Stadium where Millwall controlled large periods of the game. Alex Neil's side finished with 62% possession, 15 shots to Hull's six and 24 touches inside the opposition box compared to Hull's 10.
Camiel Neghli struck the post while Ryan Leonard also saw a late goal ruled out, leaving Millwall believing they carry momentum into the return leg on home soil.
Alex Neil admitted afterwards that the performance should give Millwall confidence heading into Monday night, while Sergej Jakirovic insisted the pressure now shifts onto Millwall, with Hull expecting more space to attack on the counter as the hosts push forward.
Millwall enter the second leg with strong recent attacking numbers. Across the last four matches they have averaged 1.55 xG per game while creating seven big chances and conceding only two.
Their home record of 13 wins, three draws and seven defeats highlights how effective they have been at The Den, although their season long xPTS total of 65.55 still points towards some overperformance against the underlying process.
Hull's recent numbers are weaker. Across the last eight games they rank 22nd in the Championship for xPTS with 8.01 while averaging only 1.04 xG per game. Defensively they continue to allow chances, conceding 1.29 xGA across the last four games and 1.38 across eight. What remains dangerous is their transition threat, particularly away from home, with all four victories against fellow play off sides arriving on the road.
How the bookies view it: Millwall narrow favourites
Millwall are priced at 4/5 in the match winner market, implying a 55.56% probability of victory. Hull are available at 19/5, implying 20.83%, while the draw sits at 14/5, implying 26.32%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 21/20, implying 48.78%, while both teams to score sits at 1/1, implying 50.00%.
Head to Head: A tight rivalry with goals at a premium recently
Across 18 meetings between the sides, including the first leg, both teams to score has landed 10 times, a strike rate of 55.6%. More recent meetings have been significantly tighter.
The last six meetings have averaged only 1.67 goals per game, with both teams to score landing in just two of those fixtures, including two 0-0 draws. Across the full 18 game sample the average stands at 2.06 goals per game.
Hull's 3-1 win at The Den in December 2025 remains one of only two meetings across the last six to produce more than one goal.
Hull have also shown throughout the season they are comfortable playing away against stronger opposition, with all four wins against play off rivals arriving away from home. The recent head to head data still points towards a tighter second leg than the wider season averages suggest.
Players to watch: McBurnie and Cooper go to battle
Oli McBurnie drew two fouls in the first leg at the MKM and faces Jake Cooper again at The Den on Monday, a matchup the data suggests could well produce the same outcome.
McBurnie has drawn two or more fouls in 50% of his last ten full starts, a significant improvement on his season-long rate of 30.3%. Cooper commits fouls in 73.9% of his starts and has fouled two or more times in 40% of his last ten games.
In their three meetings this season Cooper has committed zero, one and two fouls respectively, with the trend pointing upward heading into the second leg.
With Millwall defending on the counter and McBurnie running channels, the conditions favour this landing.
Predicted line ups
Millwall 4-2-3-1: Patterson, Leonard, Crama, Cooper, Sturge, Mazou Sacko, de Norre, Azeez, Neghli, Ballo, Coburn.
Hull City 4-2-3-1: Pandur, Coyle, Egan, Hughes, Giles, Slater, Crooks, Belloumi, Gelhardt, Millar, McBurnie.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score remains the standout angle because the tactical setup and recent data from both sides consistently support chances at each end.
Millwall must attack to progress and that creates exactly the spaces Hull have exploited on the counter throughout the season. Millwall's attacking process remains strong. Across the last four matches they have averaged 1.55 xG per game while producing 10 shots inside the box per game. Hull's defensive numbers also remain vulnerable, conceding 1.29 xGA per game across the last four matches and 1.38 across the last eight.
Hull also have a strong case to score. Millwall have conceded 1.89 xGA per game across the last eight matches, the weakest defensive process of any play off side, while opponents have averaged 23.75 touches inside their box during that spell. Despite only 38% possession in the first leg, Hull still managed 10 touches inside the opposition box from only six shots. With more counter attacking opportunities likely at The Den, those numbers should improve.
Hull averaged 7.25 shots inside the box per game across their last four matches and their open play xG of 0.86 per game still carries genuine threat. Millwall also managed only two shots on target from 15 attempts in the first leg, highlighting finishing issues that could prove costly if Hull take one of their transition opportunities.
Both teams to score at 1/1 implies only a 50.00% probability. Given the tactical setup, defensive vulnerabilities and recent underlying numbers from both teams, that figure still looks slightly underestimated by the market.
GambleAware