Monday night football closes the Premier League season with genuine pressure at the bottom of the table as Tottenham Hotspur host Leeds United at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a 20:00 kick off.
Tottenham sit only one point above the relegation zone and know failure to win could leave them relying on Arsenal doing them a favour to avoid dropping back into the bottom three.
Tottenham have struggled for consistency throughout the campaign. Their xPTS of 9.98 across the last eight matches highlights a side falling short of expectation levels, while they have won only two of their last eight home xG battles. Recent performances at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have lacked control and confidence, increasing the tension around this fixture.
Leeds arrive with no pressure attached to their league position and their recent away data has been strong. They have collected 12 points from their last eight away matches and their away xPTS of 11.36 during that spell is stronger than Tottenham's home return. Leeds have continued to play aggressively on the road, creating chances consistently and carrying a threat in transition.
Everything surrounding this game points towards an open contest with goals.
How the bookies view it: Tottenham narrow favourites
Tottenham are priced at 93/100 in the match winner market, implying a 51.81% probability of victory. Leeds are available at 3/1, implying 25.00%, while the draw is priced at 31/10, implying 24.39%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 3/4, implying 57.14%, while both teams to score sits at 7/10, implying 58.82%. Tottenham have seen both teams to score land in 100% of their last four home matches and the recent data from both sides strongly supports goals again here.
Head to Head: Goals dominate this fixture
Tottenham have won six of the last seven meetings with Leeds across all competitions, with Leeds' only victory arriving in May 2021. Across those seven matches the aggregate score stands at 20-9 to Tottenham, averaging 4.14 goals per game, the highest average across this weekend's Premier League fixtures.
Six of those seven meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, including Tottenham wins of 4-3, 4-0 and 4-1. The only meeting to fall short of over 2.5 goals was Tottenham's 2-1 win at Elland Road earlier this season. Historically, this fixture consistently produces open games and chances at both ends.
Players to watch: Danso booking stands out
Kevin Danso continues to look one of the strongest booking angles in the Premier League. The Tottenham defender has collected seven yellow cards in only 14 starts this season, averaging a booking every two appearances.
Recent form strengthens the case further. Danso has been booked in each of his last three starts, committing seven fouls across those matches at an average of 2.33 per game. Leeds' direct attacking style should create another difficult night for him defensively.
Daniel James and Dominic Calvert-Lewin consistently attack defenders aggressively and Leeds have averaged 9.5 shots inside the box per away match across their last eight games, while also creating 12 big chances during that period. Danso should face sustained pressure throughout and at 3/1 the booking angle looks well supported by the numbers.
Predicted line ups
Tottenham 4-2-3-1: Kinsky, Porro, Danso, Van de Ven, Udogie, Palhinha, Bentancur, Kolo Muani, Gallagher, Tel, Richarlison.
Leeds 3-5-2: Darlow, Rodon, Bijol, Bornauw, Bogle, Stach, Ampadu, Tanaka, Justin, James, Calvert-Lewin.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals remains the strongest angle in this fixture given the combination of Tottenham's defensive issues and Leeds' involvement in high scoring away matches.
Tottenham have seen both teams to score land in each of their last four home games, highlighting their inability to control matches defensively. Their home xG battle win rate of only 41.2% this season also shows how regularly opponents create chances against them at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Leeds bring similar trends away from home. Their last four away matches have all produced over 2.5 goals and they continue to create opportunities consistently, averaging 9.5 shots inside the box per away game across their last eight road fixtures. Both teams to score has landed in 75% of their last four away matches.
The pressure on Tottenham to attack for a win should further increase the tempo and openness of the game. With Leeds playing freely and Tottenham needing points for survival, the conditions strongly favour another high scoring meeting between the sides.
Over 2.5 goals at 3/4 looks one of the strongest data backed selections on the final night of the Premier League season.
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