The Premier League season reaches its conclusion on Sunday when Burnley host Aston Villa at Turf Moor, with a 14:00 kick-off between a side with nothing left to play for and one with European ambitions still very much alive.
Burnley are battling with Wolves to avoid finishing rooted to the bottom of the table and their underlying numbers across the last eight matches are the worst in the division by every measure.
They rank last in the Premier League for home xPTS with just 4.59 across the last eight games, averaging just 0.83 xG per game while conceding 1.98 xGA. Their home xG battle win rate of just 17.6% this season is the second worst figure in the division.
Their recent attacking process has been especially concerning. Across the last four home matches they have created just one big chance while conceding six, and their home npxG of 0.86 is the lowest figure among all home sides in Sunday's fixtures.
They have failed to score in 53% of their home games this season and concede 13.0 shots inside the box per game at home across the last four matches, the highest figure in the division.
Aston Villa arrive with genuine motivation, still in contention for European football next season and carrying the quality to make it count. Their away xPTS of 11.79 across the last eight games reflects a side with the ability to control matches on the road, and their away xGA of 1.24 across that period underlines a defensive solidity that Burnley will find very difficult to breach.
How the bookies view it: Villa favourites
Aston Villa are priced at 13/20 in the match winner market, implying a 60.61% probability of victory. Burnley are available at 5/1, implying 16.67%, while the draw sits at 17/5, implying 22.73%.
Both teams to score is priced at 4/5, implying 55.56%. However the data challenges that assessment strongly. Burnley's home both teams to score rate is just 25% across their last four home games and they have failed to score in over half of their home matches this season.
Head to Head: Villa hold the edge
Aston Villa and Burnley have met 11 times since 2014, with Villa claiming five wins to Burnley's two alongside four draws. The aggregate score across those meetings stands at 19-14 to Villa, averaging three goals per game.
Villa have won four of the last six meetings in all competitions, including a 2-1 victory at Villa Park earlier this season in matchweek seven and a 3-2 win in December 2023. Burnley's only victories in the last 11 meetings came in a 3-2 home win in January 2021, though Villa have been the dominant force across the recent head to head record.
Both teams to score has landed in seven of the 11 meetings, though four of those games finished level or with a one-goal margin, suggesting this fixture can also produce tighter affairs when Burnley are more competitive. On current form, that seems unlikely on Sunday.
Players to watch: Rogers reliable for shots
Aston Villa's Morgan Rogers has developed into one of the Premier League's most reliable shot producers and the numbers strongly support him registering two or more attempts against Burnley on Sunday.
Rogers has recorded 2+ shots in nine of his last 10 starts, averaging 2.8 shots per game across that run. He has produced four shots against West Ham, Wolves and Brighton, while failing to reach two attempts only once during that spell.
His season numbers are equally strong. Across 35 starts he has registered 81 shots, averaging 2.31 per game.
Burnley also rank poorly defensively. Across their last four home matches they have conceded 13.0 shots inside the box per game, the highest figure in the division.
With Villa still chasing European qualification, Rogers should see plenty of shooting opportunities again here.
Predicted line-ups
Burnley 5-4-1: Dubravka, Ekdal, Esteve, Humphreys, Walker, Hartman, Tchaouna, Laurent, Ward-Prowse, Anthony, Flemming.
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1: Martinez, Cash, Lindelof, Mings, Maatsen, Tielemans, Bogarde, Sancho, Barkley, Rogers, Abraham.
Anything else catch the eye?
Villa winning and the game producing fewer than five goals represents the strongest statistical angle for Sunday's fixture, with the data pointing overwhelmingly in one direction.
Burnley's home numbers are the worst in the division across every metric. They average just 0.83 xG per game at home across the last eight matches, have created just one big chance in their last four home fixtures and their home xPTS of just 1.91 across that period is the lowest figure in the league. Their shots in box against figure of 13.0 per home game in the last four reflects a defence that offers almost no resistance.
Villa's away xPTS of 11.79 across the last eight games and an away xGA of just 1.24 in that period projects them as comfortable winners here. The head to head record reinforces the case, with Villa winning five of 11 meetings and claiming victory in four of the last six encounters including earlier this season.
With Burnley's 53% home failed to score rate, just one big chance created in four home games and the lowest home xPTS in the division, they look unlikely to contribute meaningfully to the goal tally. Villa to win and fewer than five goals is a well-constructed selection with the data and the history firmly on its side at evens.
GambleAware