The Premier League season moves towards its conclusion on Sunday when West Ham host Arsenal at the London Stadium, with a 16:30 kick-off carrying enormous significance for both sides.
Arsenal arrive knowing victory would take them one step closer to the title, while West Ham sit third bottom and desperately need points to ease their relegation concerns. This is a fixture with high stakes at both ends of the table.
Arsenal's away form this season has been the strongest of any side in the division across every meaningful metric. They rank first in the Premier League for away xPTS with 32.99 across the season, win 70.6% of their away xG battles and have kept seven clean sheets in 17 away games.
Across the last eight away matches their xPTS of 15.06 is the highest of any away side in Sunday's fixtures, and they have kept four clean sheets in that period while conceding just 1.09 xGA per game.
West Ham's relegation battle adds an unpredictable edge to this fixture. They have shown improved home form in recent weeks, picking up eight points from their last four home games and registering an npxG of 2.01 at home in that window which is the highest home figure of any side in Sunday's fixtures.
Their need for points means they will approach this with genuine intent rather than simply going through the motions, and that makes them a more dangerous opponent than their league position might suggest.
However their underlying defensive numbers remain a concern. They concede 8.1 shots inside the box per game at home across the last eight matches and their home xGA of 1.44 in that period reflects a side that gives up chances consistently, regardless of the motivation they carry into the game.
How the bookies view it: Arsenal strong favourites
Arsenal are priced at 8/13 in the match winner market, implying a 61.90% probability of victory. West Ham are available at 19/4, implying 17.39%, while the draw sits at 17/5, implying 22.73%.
Both teams to score is priced at 3/4, implying 57.14%.
Head to Head: Arsenal dominant over 20 meetings
Arsenal hold a commanding record in this fixture, winning 13 of the last 20 meetings with West Ham across all competitions, with just four West Ham victories and three draws. The aggregate score across those meetings stands at 43-20 to Arsenal, averaging 3.15 goals per game.
Arsenal have been particularly ruthless in recent Premier League meetings. They won 5-2 at the London Stadium in November 2024, won 6-0 at home in February 2024 and claimed a 2-0 victory at the Emirates earlier this season in matchweek seven. They are unbeaten in five of the last six Premier League meetings, with West Ham's only victory coming at the Emirates in February 2025.
Goals have been a consistent feature of this fixture. Eleven of the last 20 meetings have produced more than 2.5 goals, though several of those were driven by Arsenal's attacking dominance rather than open, end-to-end affairs. Four of the last six Premier League meetings have seen one side fail to score, with Arsenal keeping clean sheets in three of those games.
Players to watch: Summerville main threat for Hammers
Crysencio Summerville has developed into one of West Ham's most active attacking outlets this season and the shot data strongly supports him registering two or more efforts against Arsenal on Sunday.
Across his last 10 starts, Summerville has produced 2+ shots in seven matches, averaging 2.5 shots per game during that spell. His standout performances included five shots against Tottenham, four against Bournemouth and three against both Wolves and Liverpool. Even when West Ham have struggled collectively, Summerville has remained willing to drive forward and test the opposition goal.
His overall season numbers strengthen the angle further. Across 26 starts he has recorded 51 shots, averaging close to two per match, while also drawing 59 fouls. Those figures highlight how regularly he receives the ball in dangerous areas and looks to attack defenders directly.
The match context also suits the selection. West Ham still need points to move clear of danger and Summerville is likely to play with freedom on the left side, taking on defenders and looking to create openings for himself.
Everything in the underlying numbers points towards Summerville producing at least two shots on Sunday.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham 4-4-1-1: Hermansen, Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Disasi, Diouf, Bowen, Soucek, Fernandes, Summerville, Pablo, Castellanos.
Arsenal 4-2-3-1: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori, Rice, Lewis-Skelly, Saka, Eze, Trossard, Gyokeres.
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal winning and the game producing fewer than five goals represents the strongest statistical angle for Sunday's fixture, with the data and the head to head record pointing firmly in the same direction.
Arsenal's away numbers are the best in the division across every metric. They win 70.6% of away xG battles, average 1.77 npxG per away game and concede just 0.80 xGA away from home across the season, the lowest figure in the league. Their away xPTS of 15.06 across the last eight games is the highest of any away side across Sunday's fixtures, and four clean sheets in eight away matches underlines their defensive solidity on the road.
Under 4.5 goals is a straightforward bar to clear. Four of the last six Premier League meetings between these sides saw one team fail to score, West Ham's home both teams to score rate is just 25% in their last four home games, and Arsenal's controlled away style means they are unlikely to be involved in a high-scoring contest. West Ham's need for a result may make them more defensive and organised rather than adventurous, which further suppresses the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Arsenal to win and fewer than five goals is a well-constructed selection with the data, the history and the occasion firmly on its side.
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