Two sides experiencing a major fallout meet in the 30th round, as Mainz hope to revive their chances for Champions League football with a win over struggling Wolfsburg.
For a while, it felt like Mainz's form was too good to be true. The team seemed cemented in the Top 4 until about a month ago, but now enter this fixture with a four-game winless streak. This is the worst possible time to experience a drop in form, and Mainz could easily end up out of Europe entirely, as there are five other teams within five points behind them.
The situation at Wolfsburg is even worse, in fact, far worse. The Wolves are in the no-man's land in the middle of the table with four defeats in a row. Mathematically, they can end up in the Top 6 if they win all five matches until the end, but we all know that's highly unlikely. With two wins in the last 10 games and only six goals scored, Wolfsburg don't look like a real threat.
How the bookies view it: Mainz to take revenge
Bookmakers give Mainz the betting advantage, but there is plenty of value in the odds. The gap is not that extreme, as you can pick the 05ers at 1/1, while the draw and the win for Wolfsburg are both sitting at 13/5.
Recent head to head: The Wolves have the upper hand
While Mainz have been the better team this season, their record against Wolfsburg is far from positive. The Wolves have the upper hand in recent H2Hs with six wins in the last 10. They also won the reverse fixture this season 4-3, but that happened during their brief strong period in December. Nevertheless, Mainz have only three wins in the last 10 H2Hs.
Players to watch: Wind loves this rivalry
Keep an eye out for Jonathan Burkardt, who's led Mainz to many victories with his 15 goals this season. But he missed the Hoffenheim clash last week due to health problems, so he may not be the best option right now.
Alternatively, watch out for Jonas Wind, who's also had an above-average performance for Wolfsburg this season. More importantly, the Danish striker has six goals against Mainz in four campaigns with Wolfsburg, including a brace in the reverse fixture this season.
Probable line-ups
Mainz: Zentner, Costa, Jenz, Kohr, Veratschnig, Sano, Amiri, Caci, Lee, Burkardt, Weiper
Wolfsburg: Grabara, Odogu, Vavro, Fischer, Kaminski, Dardai, Maehle, Arnold, Wimmer, Wind, Amoura
Anything else catch the eye?
Mainz have clearly not been in their best shape lately, but their bad form applies mostly to their away games. The team hasn't lost a Bundesliga home match since mid-October, although they produced back-to-back draws in the last couple of games.
More importantly, no team has conceded fewer goals in its last 10 home matches than Mainz (6). Much of their success this season has been due to their exceptional performance in defence. Only Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have conceded fewer goals than them overall. And since Wolfsburg failed to score in three of their last five games, we expect a less attractive clash when it comes to goals.
This German Bundesliga match between Mainz and Wolfsburg will be played on and kick off at 14:30. Check below for our tipsters best Mainz vs Wolfsburg prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
GambleAware