Nottingham Forest's last visit to Anfield ended in a 3-0 win, their best result against Liverpool in years and a reminder of how awkward this matchup has become for the home side. The clubs meet again at Anfield on Saturday, kick-off 12:30, after beginning their league seasons without a win.
Liverpool drew 2-2 at Newcastle, while Forest lost 1-0 at home to Leeds before suffering another defeat against the same opponents in the Carabao Cup three days later.
Liverpool's home performances last season produced 10 wins, six draws and three defeats from 19 matches, with 34 goals scored and 20 conceded. Their 1.66 xG ranked fifth in the Premier League, while an xGA of 1.32 also ranked fifth. An xG ratio of 0.56 placed them fourth, giving Andoni Iraola a strong underlying platform despite the managerial change.
The goal data was less emphatic. Liverpool's home matches went over 2.5 goals only nine times from 19, a 47% hit rate, with an average of 2.84 goals per game. Both teams scored in 68%, Liverpool failed to score in 11% and kept clean sheets in 26%. The higher both teams to score rate came from Liverpool conceding regularly rather than their matches consistently developing into high totals.
Their opening draw at Newcastle followed a more open pattern. Liverpool controlled 60% possession and registered 27 attempts, but still conceded twice as Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez struggled defensively. Dominik Szoboszlai's stoppage-time penalty rescued a point after Newcastle had twice taken the lead.
Liverpool created enough pressure to win, although possession and shot volume did not produce control at both ends. Iraola's side carried a clear attacking threat throughout, but the defensive performance showed why backing a clean sheet remains difficult at this stage of the season.
Federico Chiesa misses this game with a muscle injury, while Harvey Elliott was omitted from the squad at Newcastle due to a potential move away from Anfield. Curtis Jones has completed his move to Inter Milan, leaving teenager Trey Nyoni in contention for a larger midfield role.
Jeremy Jacquet completed the full match at Newcastle and looked tired during the closing stages, but Iraola has backed the summer signing to continue. Liverpool's defence remains a developing unit, with Jacquet still adjusting to the Premier League alongside Virgil van Dijk and two attack-minded full backs.
Forest's away record last season was stronger than their performances at the City Ground. They won seven, drew three and lost nine of their 19 away matches, scoring and conceding 28 goals. Their underlying numbers were more modest, with 1.21 xG and 1.36 xGA both sitting in the bottom half of the division.
Forest's away matches went over 2.5 goals in 63% of games and averaged 2.95 goals, figures working against the proposed under 2.5 selection. Their overall xPTS total of 44.1 closely matched the 44 points earned, suggesting their league position gave a fair reflection of the underlying performances.
Their first two competitive matches under Oliver Glasner have been tighter. Forest lost 1-0 to Leeds in the league after conceding from Anton Stach's stoppage-time free kick, then faced the same opponents again three days later in the cup. Both games provided evidence of a side still adapting to Glasner's structure but remaining competitive without producing much attacking fluency.
Forest are also rebuilding through midfield following Elliot Anderson's move to Manchester City. Ibrahim Sangare and James McAtee have been asked to cover the gap, while summer signing Ousmane Diomande is still waiting for his debut.
How the bookies view it
Liverpool are 1/2, implying a 66.7% chance of winning. The draw is priced at 18/5 and carries an implied probability of 21.7%, while Forest are 28/5 at 15.2%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 8/13, implying a 61.9% chance. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 11/8 and carries an implied probability of 42.1%.
Both teams to score is 3/4 for yes, implying 57.1%. No is available at 11/10, carrying an implied probability of 47.6%.
Head to head: Liverpool edge it
Liverpool and Forest have met eight times in the Premier League since Forest returned to the division in 2022. Liverpool have won four, Forest three and one has ended level.
Liverpool also won their FA Cup meeting in 2022, but recent league results show a much closer matchup. Forest's 3-0 success at Anfield last November is the most relevant result, although Liverpool's changes in management and personnel reduce its value as a direct guide.
Player to watch: Cody Gakpo the main threat
Cody Gakpo was Liverpool's main attacking threat at Newcastle, scoring once and attempting six shots. He also won four tackles and made three interceptions from an advanced role, giving Iraola work with and without possession.
The Dutch forward contributed seven goals and five assists from 32 starts last season. His immediate future remains uncertain amid reported transfer interest, with Iraola stopping short of guaranteeing he will remain at Liverpool beyond the end of the window.
Gakpo is still expected to start from the left against Forest. His movement inside gives Alexander Isak support through the middle and creates space for Kerkez to advance from full back, an area Liverpool used regularly at Newcastle despite their defensive problems on the same side.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool, 4-2-3-1: Alisson, Frimpong, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Ngumoha, Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak.
Nottingham Forest, 3-4-2-1: Sels, Milenkovic, Murillo, Cunha, Aina, Sangare, McAtee, Williams, Gibbs-White, Ndoye, Igor Jesus.
Anything else catch the eye?
Iraola's assessment of Forest supports a low-scoring angle. He described them as a side conceding few chances and warned Liverpool would need to earn every opening, pointing towards their narrow defeat to Leeds as evidence. Forest had opportunities to win before a late free kick separated the teams, while their second meeting with Leeds brought another tight contest.
Liverpool's home figures provide the clearest statistical support for under 2.5 goals. Only 47% of their league matches at Anfield cleared the line last season, despite strong attacking numbers and a low failed-to-score rate. Their average of 2.84 goals finished above the proposed line, but the individual hit rate remained below half.
Forest's away data is the clear risk. Their matches cleared over 2.5 goals in 63% of cases and averaged 2.95, while Liverpool's opening fixture produced four goals. Liverpool also conceded twice at Newcastle, so their defensive performance offers little support for a routine home clean sheet.
The main bet is under 2.5 goals at 11/8, implying a 42.1% chance. Liverpool's 47% home over 2.5 rate, Forest's two low-margin matches against Leeds and Iraola's view of the visitors as difficult to break down support the selection. Forest's more open away record and Liverpool's 2-2 opener keep this at moderate conviction, but the price leaves room for a tighter contest than the market expects.
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