Ipswich Town host Arsenal at Portman Road on Tuesday, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00, live on Sky TV. The EFL Cup third-round tie brings together two Premier League teams who won at the weekend, although their opening records show a clear difference in performance.
Ipswich secured their second league victory of the season by beating Crystal Palace 3-2 at Selhurst Park. Zian Flemming scored a last minute winner for the Tractor Boys as they came from behind to win the game.
The result ended a run of two defeats for Gary O'Neil's side. Ipswich had lost 5-2 at Manchester United before suffering a 2-0 home defeat against Liverpool, having opened their campaign with a 2-1 victory over Sunderland.
Ipswich have scored seven goals from 5.18 xG across four league matches. Their 45 attempts include 26 from inside the penalty area, while they have created nine big chances.
Julio Enciso has supplied much of their shot volume, registering 12 attempts, three on target and 0.87 xG across 251 minutes. Daizen Maeda has produced 0.71 xG from only three shots, placing two of them on target, while Davis has created three chances from left-back.
Their defensive figures are less convincing. Opponents have produced 6.96 xGA from 65 shots and placed 26 attempts on target. Manchester United account for a large part of those totals, but allowing Palace to equalise with 10 men also exposed a weakness against direct attacks.
Arsenal travel to Suffolk after extending their perfect start with a 2-0 victory at Sunderland. Mikel Arteta's team controlled 66% of possession during the first half but struggled to create clear openings against a disciplined home defence.
The decisive period arrived after the interval. Ezri Konsa conceded a penalty for bringing down Dan Ballard, but David Raya saved Enzo Le Fee's effort. Bruno Guimaraes then curled Arsenal ahead 121 seconds later before Bukayo Saka converted a stoppage-time penalty.
Arsenal have won their opening four Premier League matches, scoring eight goals and conceding once. They have generated 7.75 xG while allowing 2.91 xGA, giving them an xG ratio of 73%.
Their four opponents have managed 36 shots and only nine on target. Raya's performance at Sunderland helped him record his fifth clean sheet in six matches across all competitions.
The competition has carried importance for Arsenal during the last two seasons. They reached the final last term before losing to Manchester City, having made the semi-finals one year earlier when eventual winners Newcastle United eliminated them.
How the bookies view it
Ipswich Town are 7/1, implying a 12.5% chance of winning. The draw is 19/5, carrying an implied probability of 20.8%, while Arsenal are 2/5, representing 71.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/6, implying 60.0%. Under 2.5 is 13/10, giving the selection an implied probability of 43.5%.
Both teams to score is priced at 10/11 for yes, representing 52.4%. No is available at evens, implying 50.0%.
Head to head: Gunners hold a strong record
Arsenal have won six of the eight listed meetings between the clubs. Ipswich have recorded one victory, with the other game finishing level.
Each of Arsenal's six wins came without conceding, contributing to a combined scoring record of 14-2. The sides last met during the 2024-25 Premier League season, when Arsenal won 1-0 at the Emirates and 4-0 at Portman Road.
Player to watch: Marcelino Nunez to play significant role for hosts
Marcelino Nunez decided Ipswich's previous EFL Cup tie with two goals during the final 20 minutes.
His first finish against Leicester showed his ability from the edge of the penalty area. His second demonstrated his awareness and shooting range as he punished Stolarczyk's advanced position from inside the Leicester half.
His league role has produced fewer attacking opportunities. Nunez has played 142 minutes, recording one shot, 0.03 xG and one chance created. Those numbers show why his two cup goals stood out from his usual output.
Nunez is expected to start alongside Florentino in the centre of midfield. He is unlikely to make repeated runs into the penalty area, but his long-range shooting gives Ipswich an alternative if Arsenal restrict the space available to their attacking players around the box.
Predicted lineups
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Walton; Furlong, O'Shea, Kipre, Ouattara, Florentino, Nunez; Philogene, Walle Egeli, McAteer; Akpom.
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Kepa; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Guimaraes; Madueke, Merino, Eze; Gyokeres.
Anything else catch the eye
The expected visiting lineup reduces the concern around rotation. Guimaraes changed the Sunderland match after entering at half-time, while Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres provide established attacking quality.
Ipswich carry enough attacking threat to make an Arsenal win to nil less secure, but a high-scoring game is not required. Arsenal's four league matches have produced totals of three, one, three and two goals, keeping every fixture below 4.5.
The visitors have the stronger defence, deeper squad and a significant advantage in overall chance quality. The expected lineup also retains enough attacking experience to find a way past an Ipswich side which has conceded 10 league goals.
Combining Arsenal to win with Under 4.5 match goals avoids the short outright price and covers a controlled away victory. It also fits Arsenal's early defensive record and the scoring pattern from each of their league games.
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