Chelsea face Western Sydney Wanderers at Accor Stadium on Tuesday with kick-off at 7.45pm local time (10.45am BST), as part of the Sydney Super Cup. The tournament also features Sydney FC and Tottenham Hotspur.
Chelsea head to Australia looking to bounce back from a disappointing domestic campaign. They finished 10th in the Premier League with 52 points following a season that also saw defeat in the FA Cup final to Manchester City. Their underlying numbers suggested that mid-table finish was a fair reflection of their performances.
Chelsea's 27.58 xPTS ranked 12th in the Premier League, closely matching their final position, while they averaged 1.63 xG and 1.52 xGA per home match, highlighting a side that remained entertaining but lacked consistency at both ends of the pitch.
Western Sydney Wanderers endured a miserable A-League campaign on the surface, finishing bottom of the 12-team table with just 21 points from 26 matches and ending the season with five consecutive defeats. The underlying numbers painted a completely different picture.
Their 38 xPTS ranked sixth in the A-League, 17 points higher than their actual return and comfortably in mid-table, representing by far the biggest underperformance in the division.
The numbers suggest finishing, rather than chance creation, was the biggest issue. Western Sydney averaged 4.6 shots on target per game, ranking seventh in the league, while their 726 touches inside the opposition penalty area ranked third.
However, a conversion rate of just 6.8% was comfortably the worst in the competition, despite creating 61 big chances during the season. Defensively, they kept five clean sheets, tied for seventh in the league, although opponents converted 38.2% of their shots on target against them, the highest figure in the division, suggesting that when teams created clear opportunities they were punished far too often.
The Wanderers have also begun a new era under Ufuk Talay, who opened his reign with a 2-0 victory over Tigers FC in the Hahn Australia Cup. Miguel Di Pizio and Brandon Borrello scored the goals, while Di Pizio, German Ferreyra, Panashe Madanha and Liam Gillion all made their competitive debuts for the club.
Chelsea also begin the campaign under a new manager after appointing Xabi Alonso following a trophyless season that cost both Enzo Maresca and interim boss Liam Rosenior their jobs. The squad has already undergone significant changes during the summer. Morgan Rogers has arrived from Aston Villa for a British-record £117 million, joined by Marco Palestra, Geovany Quenda and Emmanuel Emegha, while Andrey Santos has departed for Manchester United.
As with many of Europe's biggest clubs, Chelsea are still without a number of World Cup players who have been granted extended breaks following the tournament. That means Alonso is expected to blend senior professionals with several younger players as he begins implementing his ideas during preseason.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing there are no odds available for this fixture.
Head to head: First meeting
This will be the first meeting between Chelsea and Western Sydney Wanderers.
Player to watch: Cole Palmer back to his best?
Cole Palmer has plenty to prove heading into the new season. Injury disrupted much of the previous campaign and he finished with 10 goals and one assist from 24 starts, a significant drop on the standards he had set during his first two years at Stamford Bridge.
The arrival of Morgan Rogers only increases competition for places in Chelsea's attacking unit, making every preseason appearance important. Against opposition Chelsea are expected to dominate, this feels like an ideal opportunity for Palmer to rebuild confidence and remind Xabi Alonso of the quality he can bring.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea (4-3-3): Jorgensen; Hato, Palestra, Colwill, Acheampong; Caicedo, Lavia, Palmer; Joao Pedro, Emegha, Estevao.
Western Sydney Wanderers (4-3-3): Thomas; Pantazopoulos, Cancar, Simmons, Gersbach; Thurgate, Ugarkovic, Brillante; Kraev, Borrello, Barbarouses.
Anything else catch the eye?
On paper, this looks a huge mismatch, although Western Sydney's underlying numbers suggest they were considerably stronger than their league position implied. Finishing bottom despite generating the sixth-highest xPTS in the division is exceptionally unusual and points towards a team that consistently failed to convert decent performances into results.
Even allowing for that, Chelsea should possess too much quality. The projected starting XI contains several established Premier League players, including Cole Palmer, Levi Colwill, Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia, while the summer additions give Xabi Alonso even greater depth despite the continued absence of several World Cup players.
Western Sydney's biggest weakness last season was defending clear chances. Opponents converted shots on target against them at the highest rate in the A-League, a concerning statistic when facing a Chelsea side that still averaged 1.63 xG per match during a disappointing Premier League campaign.
The Wanderers should enjoy moments of possession, particularly backed by a home crowd, but sustaining that over 90 minutes against Chelsea's superior technical quality looks a far greater challenge.
If markets become available, Chelsea to win by two or more goals would be the early lean. Western Sydney appear better than their final league position suggests, but the gap in individual quality should still become apparent as the game progresses.
Chelsea vs Western Sydney Wanderers Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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