Nicky Hayen gets his first competitive look at Championship opposition on Sunday when West Ham United travel to Turf Moor (4pm kick off), with James Ward-Prowse facing the club where he spent last season on loan.
Burnley finished 19th in the Premier League last season with 22 points, almost exactly matching their 21.49 xPTS. Their form deteriorated too, with just seven points from their final 15 matches, the worst return in the division over that period.
Hayen arrives from Club Brugge for his first job in English football and inherits a squad undergoing significant change. Burnley have raised around £86m through player sales, including Maxime Esteve to RB Leipzig, Jaidon Anthony to Brentford and Florentino to Ipswich, while Ugo Raghouber has arrived from Lille.
West Ham finished one place above Burnley with 39 points, against 42.16 xPTS, suggesting their performances were slightly better than the final table showed. More importantly, their form improved considerably during the closing months. Nuno Espirito Santo's side collected 19 points from their final 15 matches, the 11th-best return in the Premier League over that period.
Nuno remains in charge and Jarrod Bowen has stayed to captain the promotion challenge despite West Ham raising more than £150m through sales, including Mateus Fernandes to Tottenham and Crysencio Summerville to Al-Hilal. Joel Veltman has also arrived on a free transfer from Brighton.
Burnley's preseason has offered little encouragement. They drew with Columbus Crew and Espanyol and lost against FC Cincinnati, Real Salt Lake, Ajax and Torino before needing penalties to beat League Two Notts County in the Carabao Cup following a 1-1 draw.
The underlying numbers were modestly in Burnley's favour, 0.85 xG against 0.35 xGA, but Hayen described the performance as “average”, highlighting sloppiness, poor organisation and a lack of chances. Captain Josh Cullen is also unavailable through the serious knee injury suffered last season.
West Ham's preparation has been steadier. A 5-0 win at Stevenage was followed by draws against Rangers and Magdeburg before a 3-1 Carabao Cup victory over Portsmouth.
That Portsmouth game provides the strongest recent comparison because West Ham were facing Championship opposition. They generated 2.00 xG and seven big chances while conceding only 0.72 xGA. Taty Castellanos scored twice before Bowen added the third.
How the bookies view it
Burnley are 2/1, implying a 33.3% chance of winning. The draw is 12/5 at 29.4%, while West Ham United are 11/8 at 42.1%.
Over 2.5 goals is 8/11, implying 57.9%, while both teams to score is 8/13 at 61.9%.
Head to head: Hammers have a strong record
West Ham have won 10 of the 18 meetings between these clubs since 2014, compared with four Burnley wins and four draws.
Their most recent meeting came at Turf Moor in February 2026, when West Ham won 2-0. Both teams have scored in nine of those 18 matches.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen to show his quality
Jarrod Bowen has scored 85 goals in 280 appearances for West Ham since joining from Hull City in January 2020, including the winner in the 2023 Conference League final against Fiorentina.
He remained one of their most productive players during relegation, starting all 38 Premier League matches and contributing nine goals and 11 assists despite being used across several positions.
Bowen has carried that involvement into the new season, scoring in the Carabao Cup victory over Portsmouth. Keeping a proven Premier League attacker through relegation gives West Ham an obvious source of quality at Championship level.
Predicted line ups
Burnley (4-3-3): Weiss; Sonne, Worrall, Walker, Humphreys; Raghouber, Ramsey, Hannibal; Bruun Larsen, Flemming, Edwards.
West Ham United (4-2-3-1): Hermansen; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, Diouf; Alvarez, Orford; Bowen, Ward-Prowse, Pablo; Castellanos.
Anything else catch the eye?
The contrast between these sides stretches beyond preseason results. Burnley's 22 points last season were almost perfectly matched by their 21.49 xPTS, while West Ham's 39-point return fell below their 42.16 xPTS. There was also a significant difference in their trajectories, Burnley taking just seven points from their final 15 Premier League matches compared with West Ham's 19.
The early evidence this summer has strengthened that case. Burnley failed to win any of their six preseason matches before needing penalties against League Two opposition in the Carabao Cup. West Ham then beat Championship side Portsmouth 3-1, creating seven big chances and conceding only 0.72 xGA.
My main bet is West Ham draw no bet at 8/11. Burnley being at home is enough to make me want protection against the draw rather than taking 11/8 about the straight away win, but West Ham have the stronger case across last season's underlying numbers, recent form and their first competitive performance of the new campaign.
The draw no bet market removes the biggest risk while retaining the core position. If the game finishes level, the stake is returned. If the difference between the two sides carries into the opening weekend, West Ham have enough quality to turn it into three points.
GambleAware