Ashton Gate hosts Bristol City against Watford on Friday with kick-off scheduled for 20:00. Bristol City have taken 10 points from seven Championship matches, while Watford sit two places lower with eight.
Bristol City return home three days after losing 1-0 against Lincoln City. Michael Skubala's side controlled 68% possession and recorded 18 shots, but Freddie Draper scored after Robert Dickie's underhit back-pass was intercepted.
Lorent Tolaj struck the crossbar before the goal, while George Wickens denied Yu Hirakawa after Lincoln moved ahead. Bristol City generated 1.53 xG against 0.53, but failed to score for the second time at home this season.
Skubala accepted his side had fallen below the required standard and described the winning goal as a gift. The quick turnaround gives Bristol City limited recovery time following their Tuesday night fixture.
Watford have had six days to prepare after losing 2-1 at home to Stoke City. Their performance raised more concern than the result. Watford managed six shots, two on target and no big chances, finishing with 0.43 xG.
Alessio Dionisi's side had beaten Preston North End 2-1 four days earlier. Watford also created four big chances during a 1-0 defeat at West Bromwich Albion, leading Dionisi to stress the need for greater efficiency.
Bristol City are expected to continue with Lorent Tolaj through the middle. Scott Twine should operate behind him, with Jed Wallace and Yu Hirakawa providing support from wider positions.
Mamadou Doumbia is likely to lead the Watford attack. Iker Bravo should continue centrally behind him, with Stephy Mavididi and Othmane Maamma operating from the flanks.
How the bookies view it
Bristol City are 10/11, carrying an implied probability of 52.4%. The draw is 27/10, representing 27.0%, while Watford are 31/10, giving them a 24.4% chance.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/5, implying 55.6%. Under 2.5 is priced at 1/1, representing 50.0%.
Both teams to score is 8/11 for yes, carrying an implied probability of 57.9%. No is available at 1/1.
Player to watch: Scott Twine still showing his attacking threat
Scott Twine has supplied Bristol City's clearest attacking threat during the opening weeks of the season.
The attacking midfielder scored against Birmingham City, Preston North End and Burnley, returning three goals from his first five Championship appearances.
Twine's underlying numbers support his scoring record. He generated 1.50 xG from 10 attempts, with four shots testing the goalkeeper. His overall contribution also included 0.41 xA and nine chances created across 391 minutes.
His role behind Lorent Tolaj allows him to find shooting positions around the edge of the penalty area. He also carries a threat from dead-ball situations.
Watford have allowed 19 big chances across seven games, alongside 12.45 xGA. Those defensive numbers should provide Twine with opportunities to influence the match.
Predicted lineups
Bristol City (4-2-3-1): Tickle, Cardines, Dickie, Eissat, Pring, Knight, Yah, Wallace, Twine, Hirakawa, Tolaj.
Watford (4-2-3-1): Ravaglia, Keben, Pollock, Coulibaly, Traore, Kyprianou, Kayembe, Maamma, Bravo, Mavididi, Doumbia.
Anything else catch the eye
Bristol City's home record makes their odds difficult to support. They have won one and lost two of their three league matches at Ashton Gate, scoring twice and failing to score in the other two.
Their performances have produced 2.66 xG and 5.59 xGA at home. Those totals equal averages of 0.89 xG created and 1.86 allowed. Bristol City have faced 47 shots and seven big chances across those fixtures.
Watford remain without an away win, collecting one point from three trips. They have scored once and failed to find the net twice, but their chance creation has been better than the results suggest.
The visitors have generated 3.15 xG and eight big chances away from home. They produced 1.45 xG and four big chances at West Bromwich Albion before losing 1-0.
Neither team has kept a Championship clean sheet this season, although the venue splits point towards a tighter game. Five of their six combined home and away fixtures have stayed under 2.5 goals.
Bristol City's short recovery period, weak home numbers and two home blanks make Watford worth supporting with the draw included. Watford double chance is the bet at 1/1.
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