Eight Bournemouth wins from the last 11 meetings give this fixture one of the clearest recent head-to-head records on Saturday's Premier League card. Everton won the other three, with no draws across a run stretching back to 2020, before the clubs meet again on Saturday at the Vitality Stadium, kick-off 15:00.
Bournemouth's home record last season contained only two defeats from 19 matches, alongside seven wins and 10 draws. They scored 29 goals and conceded 20, with their underlying attacking numbers placing them inside the league's leading group.
Their home xG average of 1.64 ranked sixth in the Premier League, while an xGA of 1.49 ranked 14th. The resulting xG ratio of 0.52 placed them seventh, showing a home side with a strong attack but less convincing defensive control.
Both teams scored in 63% of Bournemouth's home matches, while they failed to score in 21% and kept clean sheets in 32%. Their matches went over 2.5 goals in 47%, with an average of 2.58 goals. Those figures describe a competitive home side without pointing strongly towards either goals market.
Bournemouth opened the league season with a 2-1 defeat against Manchester City, despite leading until six minutes from time. The result ended an 18-match unbeaten run in all competitions, but the performance offered more encouragement than the final score. Taking the lead against one of the league's strongest sides before losing late does little to weaken the wider home case.
Marco Rose has spoken positively about Everton, describing David Moyes's side as compact and highlighting the one-on-one threat carried by their wide players. Bournemouth also have several injury problems, with Julian Araujo, Veljko Milosavljevic, Junior Kroupi and Amine Adli unavailable.
Ryan Christie returns from injury and suspension, adding another midfield option. Alvaro Rodriguez remained on the bench against Manchester City but is now ready to start, giving Rose scope to change the attack if required.
Everton's away performances last season produced seven wins, five draws and seven defeats from 19 matches, with 21 goals scored and 23 conceded. Their defensive record was stronger than their attacking output, a pattern repeated across most of Moyes's work with the squad.
An away xG average of 1.14 ranked 16th in the division, while their xGA of 1.30 ranked eighth. Their xG ratio of 0.47 placed them 15th, reflecting a side built around limiting opponents rather than creating sustained attacking pressure.
Both teams scored in 47% of Everton's away fixtures. They failed to score in 32% and kept clean sheets in 26%, while only 37% of their matches cleared over 2.5 goals. An average of 2.32 goals per away game was their lowest venue split and supports another controlled approach at Bournemouth.
Everton started with a 2-0 home win over Crystal Palace, their earliest opening-day victory in five years. The scoreline looked comfortable, although Palace struck the woodwork twice and created chances before Everton took control.
Moyes still has a clear selection problem at right back. Everton began the season without a recognised specialist in the position, leaving midfielder Merlin Rohl to operate there against Palace. Bournemouth's wide players will view the makeshift setup as an area to target.
How the bookies view it
Bournemouth are 112/100, implying a 47.2% chance of winning. The draw is priced at 13/5 and carries an implied probability of 27.8%, while Everton are 5/2 at 28.6%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 10/11, implying a 52.4% chance. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 19/20, carrying an implied probability of 51.3%.
Both teams to score is 8/11 for yes, implying 57.9%.
Head to head: Cherries over Toffees
Bournemouth have won eight of the last 11 meetings in all competitions, with Everton winning three. None of those fixtures finished level.
Everton have won at the Vitality Stadium only twice in their history, with both victories coming in cup competitions. Their league record at Bournemouth remains poor, adding venue-specific support to the home selection.
The absence of a draw across 11 meetings is unusual, but it does not prove Saturday's game must produce another winner. The stronger evidence comes from Bournemouth winning 73% of those matches and losing only twice at home across the whole of last season.
Player to watch: Thierno Barry on fire
Thierno Barry has scored four goals across Everton's first two matches. He opened his account in the league win over Crystal Palace before scoring a hat-trick in the Carabao Cup victory over Preston.
Those four goals came from 10 shots, following eight goals from 21 starts last season. His early form has established him as Everton's first-choice striker ahead of Beto and given Moyes a more reliable focal point through the middle.
Predicted line-ups
Bournemouth, 4-2-3-1: Petrovic, Smith, Hill, Silva, Truffert, Cook, Scott, Rayan, Kluivert, Tavernier, Evanilson.
Everton, 4-2-3-1: Pickford, Rohl, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko, Armstrong, Hackney, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye, George, Barry.
Anything else catch the eye?
Bournemouth's home process provides more support than Everton's away numbers. Their 1.64 xG ranked sixth, compared with Everton's away xG of 1.14 in 16th. Bournemouth also lost only two home matches, although 10 draws show how often they failed to convert competitive performances into wins.
The head-to-head record strengthens the case. Bournemouth have won eight of the last 11 meetings and Everton have never recorded a league victory at the Vitality Stadium. Those trends carry more relevance when placed alongside Bournemouth's stronger attacking numbers and home advantage.
Everton's defensive record is the main risk. Their away xGA of 1.30 ranked eighth, while only 37% of their away matches went over 2.5 goals. Moyes has built a compact side capable of keeping games close, and Barry's early scoring form gives Everton a threat at the opposite end.
Bournemouth's injury list also reduces confidence, with four players unavailable and Rodriguez only now ready to start. Their late defeat against Manchester City showed the margin remains small against stronger opponents, although Everton's attacking data sits well below City's level.
The main bet is Bournemouth to win at 112/100, implying a 47.2% chance. Their two home defeats across last season and stronger attacking process support the selection. Everton's organised defence and Bournemouth's high draw count keep this at moderate conviction rather than making the head-to-head record decisive on its own.
GambleAware