Borussia Dortmund vs Paris St-Germain
UEFA Champions League, KO: 20:00 May 1, 2024, Westfalenstadion
THE Champions League holy grail is within touching distance again for Paris St-Germain and the French giants are favourites to see off Borussia Dortmund in what should be an intriguing semi-final.
Despite lavishing billions on top-class players and managers since their Qatari takeover in 2011, the closest PSG have come to claiming Europe's biggest prize was a runners-up finish four years ago.
They responded to that setback by assembling the most expensive frontline in history, adding Lionel Messi to an attack that already included Kylian Mbappe and Neymar. But that only succeeded in leaving Paris St-Germain with an unbalanced team, and the club wisely decided to abandon a transfer strategy that seemed to have been drawn up by a five-year-old flicking through his Panini sticker album.
Only Mbappe now remains of their Galacticos and even he's set to jump ship when his deal runs out in the summer, with a move to Real Madrid looming. But the team around the French superstar is much more cohesive and thought-out, with PSG recovering from a first-leg deficit to knock Barcelona out in Spain in the quarter-finals.
Luis Enrique's men head into this semi-final on a high after sealing another French title at the weekend and they take on a Borussia Dortmund side who are facing a fight just to finish in the top four in Germany.
Edin Terzic's side were routed 4-1 by RB Leipzig at the weekend, a defeat that left them five points off the top four. Germany still looks set to land an extra Champions League slot for next term, so Dortmund probably won't need to win this year's tournament to get back at Europe's top table next season.
Nobody could say Borussia Dortmund won't deserve it if they go all the way after emerging from a group of death that included PSG, AC Milan, and Newcastle.
In the knockout stages, they have taken care of PSV Eindhoven and Atletico Madrid, so it would be foolish to write the Germans off.
How the bookies view it: PSG heavy favourites for final
The bookies can't see Borussia Dortmund getting to the final, with most firms making them 2/1 outsiders. Paris St-Germain's best price to go through is just 4/9 with Paddy Power. But the odds are more balanced for this first leg in Germany, with Terzic's side 7/4 with most firms and the French giants 29/20 at Bet365. I wouldn't be too surprised if the first leg ended level and that pays 14/5 at BetMGM.
Recent head to head: Group therapy for Dortmund
These sides have already faced off in this season's Champions League after being drawn together in the group stage. It was Paris St-Germain who had the edge, winning 2-0 in France then drawing 1-1 at the Westfalen as a bet landed for our man Slips Tips.
Borussia Dortmund have only beaten PSG once across six meetings in Europe, a 2-1 triumph four years ago as Erling Haaland netted twice. But even that counted for nothing as the French side then won 2-0 at home for a 3-2 aggregate triumph in the last 16.
Players to watch: Fullkrug a handful up top for Dortmund
Niclas Fullkrug should lead the line again for Dortmund and the target man needs just one more goal to take his tally for the season to 20. He's in decent form with two goals in his last three outings and Bet365 price him at 11/5 for anytime scorer. Fullkrug is also 13/10 at Paddy Power to either score or assist.
Mbappe let me and Slip Tips down in the first leg of PSG's clash with Barcelona and was poor across both games, even though he scored twice late on in Spain to seal the semi-final slot. Ousmane Dembele was far more impressive and the winger looks good at 6/4 with Paddy Power for a goal or assist in Germany.
Probable lineups
Key defender Mads Hummels limped off in Borussia Dortmund's weekend defeat and Terzic also has doubts over Donyell Malen, Ian Maatsen and Sebastien Haller. Paris St-Germain are still without defender Presnel Kimpembe and Mbappe should start after being rested in their last league game.
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Schlotterbeck, Sule, Wolf, Ryerson; Brandt, Sabitzer, Can; Sancho, Adeyemi, Fullkrug.
Paris St-Germain: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Mendes, Hernandez; Vitinha, Ruiz, Asensio; Dembele, Mbappe, Barcola.
Anything else catch the eye? Expect more thrills after epic quarter-finals
Both these teams were involved in thrillers in the last round, with PSG winning 6-4 on aggregate and Dortmund emerging as 5-4 victors across the two legs. The Germans will go for it at home in front of a frenzied crowd, while Mbappe and Co will be a threat on the break so it bodes well for an open game.
BTTS is sadly just 1/2 at William Hill and even adding over 2.5 goals only boosts the odds to 7/10 with the same firm. There's better value in backing most goals to come after the break at evens with 888Sport.
Stats bets look a good option, too. Mbappe is 11/10 at SkyBet to be fouled over 1.5 times. Fullkrug will put himself about up top for Borussia Dortmund, and he's 7/4 at BetVictor to commit over 1.5 fouls.
Marcel Sabitzer is always a threat from midfield, and he scored the goal that sealed victory against Atletico Madrid in the quarter-final. The Dortmund star is 10/11 at Paddy Power just to have a shot on target here.
This UEFA Champions League match between Borussia Dortmund and Paris St-Germain will be played on May 1, 2024 and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Borussia Dortmund vs Paris St-Germain prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
