No Dortmund manager has had a worse start in the Bundesliga in the last 20 years than Niko Kovac. And BVB's time to save this season will soon be up. How will they cope with the far more impressive Mainz?
The success of Kovac and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League is not to be overlooked after the team qualified for the 1/4 finals. But fans and management certainly expected a bit more in the Bundesliga, where the team has four losses in the last six rounds. After these results, Dortmund find themselves in the bottom half of the table in 11th place and a full 10 points away from the top four.
The bad news is that BVB have to face the team in the best form in the Bundesliga. Not even Bayern Munich can boast four wins in the last five rounds. Mainz are chasing a historic first Champions League qualification and definitely look like a team that can handle any challenge.
Bo Henriksen's side is playing extremely strong defensively, with only Bayern having conceded fewer goals than them. There is room for improvement in attack, but they are capable enough at the moment, as they are third in the Bundesliga and a full 10 points ahead of Dortmund.
How the bookies view it: Shocking home advantage
It is somewhat surprising how significant an advantage bookmakers give Borussia Dortmund. Especially since BVB have almost no league game wins since Kovac took over. Still, you can pick Borussia at 13/20, the draw at 29/10, and Mainz at 4/1.
Recent head to head: Mainz have dominated the rivalry
Another interesting factor that led to our surprise at the odds is the recent matchups between the two teams. Dortmund have had problems in quite a few of their H2Hs with Mainz in recent years, even before the visitors became so strong. In fact, BVB have not beaten this opponent in four consecutive Bundesliga games. And the last one in November ended with a resounding 3-1 to the 05ers.
Players to watch: The Korean punisher
This is Jae-Sung Lee's fourth season at Mainz, and Dortmund seem to be his favourite team to face. Lee has four goals and two assists in seven H2Hs, also scoring in the reverse fixture this season. In the previous campaign, he scored a brace too. The other option is to target future Mainz legend Jonathan Burkardt. The 24-year-old striker already has 15 Bundesliga goals this season, having also scored in the reverse fixture.
Probable line-ups
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Bensebaini, Can, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson, Gross, Gittens, Anton, Brandt, Adeyemi, Guirassy
Mainz: Zentner, Costa, Jenz, Hanche-Olsen, Widmer, Sano, Amiri, Caci, Weiper, Nebel, Burkardt
Anything else catch the eye?
Borussia Dortmund definitely don't look like a team that should be such a huge favorite against Mainz. Especially since most of the visitors' players managed to rest during the international break. And especially since Mainz destroyed them in the first game in November and are currently the team in the best form in the league.
We definitely plan to test one of the handicap or double chance markets because the huge difference in odds creates rare opportunities. We don't expect Mainz to lose this match. They have won their last three away games and have just one loss in the last six rounds overall. They also scored at least two goals in all of their last five games. We expect goals for both teams and a possible triumph for the underdogs.
This German Bundesliga match between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz will be played on and kick off at 16:30. Check below for our tipsters best Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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