Birmingham's unbeaten start faces another test against a Wolves side whose first league defeat exposed the difference between attacking ambition and defensive control. Both clubs expect to challenge for promotion, but their opening performances offer reasons to question either as a straightforward match winner.
Sunday's meeting at St Andrew's kicks off at 12.00. Chris Davies has collected six points through one victory and three draws, while Cesar Peixoto's visitors have seven from their opening four matches.
The xPTS figures suggest neither return is misleading. Birmingham have accumulated 6.35 xPTS, compared with Wolves' 7.36. The visitors hold the advantage, but Birmingham's performances give them a stronger chance than their limited number of wins suggests.
The hosts' latest draw against Southampton offered encouragement. Jay Stansfield hit the post and missed an unmarked header before August Priske equalised from Patrick Roberts' delivery. Birmingham created four big chances against two, despite having only 37% possession.
Davies praised his team's energetic opening and felt Southampton's half-time lead misrepresented the balance of play. He considered the equaliser deserved and highlighted Priske's work rate. Those comments support an assessment of Birmingham as competitive against another promotion contender, rather than a side fortunate to escape defeat.
Wolves' visit to West Ham was more difficult to assess from the scoreline alone. Raul Jimenez and Mateus Mane struck the woodwork before the hosts opened the scoring, but the eventual 4-2 defeat also reflected weaknesses around their own penalty area.
Peixoto felt the result was unfair given Wolves' opportunities and praised their continued competitiveness. The underlying figures offer a less favourable assessment. His team generated 0.94 xG against 2.05 xGA and failed to create a big chance, while allowing five.
Birmingham are without Marc Leonard through a hamstring injury and Rafiki Said through a muscle problem. Wolves remain without Kieran Trippier, who has a knee injury, and Yerson Mosquera, who has a thigh problem.
How the bookies view it
Wolves are favourites at 6/4, implying a 40.0% chance of victory. Birmingham are available at 2/1, representing 33.3%, while the draw at 12/5 implies 29.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, an implied probability of 47.6%. Both teams to score is available at 11/13, representing 54.2%.
Head to head: Wolves edge it over their close rivals
Across the 13 meetings supplied, Wolves recorded six wins, Birmingham three and four finished level. The visitors won the latest two encounters without conceding and four of their last five trips to Birmingham.
The most recent listed fixture was in April 2018. Those results provide historical context, but the gap between meetings limits their relevance to the current players and managers.
Player to watch: Fer Lopez is the stand out performer
Fer Lopez offers Wolves a connection between midfield and attack. Across the opening three league games, he registered 11 shots and created seven chances, contributing 1.01 xG and 0.75 xA.
His two goals both arrived at Preston, where his ability to carry possession forward and combine around the box helped Wolves turn promising attacks into clear openings. He then supplied Jordan James for the final goal against Stoke.
The scoring return exceeded his chance quality during this period, so it would be premature to treat him as a consistently prolific finisher. His involvement in both creating and finishing moves remains relevant against Birmingham's midfield pair.
Predicted lineups
Both selections are based on the supplied last starting XIs, rather than confirmed teams.
Birmingham, 4-2-3-1: Beadle, Osayi-Samuel, Neumann, Klarer, Cochrane, Iwata, Solis, Roberts, Stansfield, Vicente, Priske.
Wolves, 4-2-3-1: Sa, Tchatchoua, Djiga, Toti Gomes, Bueno, Munetsi, Andre, Rodrigo Gomes, Lopez, Mane, Jimenez.
Anything else catch the eye
Both teams to score offers the stronger fit with the scoring patterns, without requiring either side to win or the match to produce a third goal.
Wolves have scored and conceded in every league appearance. Birmingham have done so in their last three, with their only blank and clean sheet coming together in the opening goalless draw at Sheffield United.
The venue records support contributions from both attacks. Birmingham's two home matches have produced three goals for and three against, with 3.05 xG and 2.53 xGA. Wolves' two away fixtures have returned five goals at each end, although their 2.52 xG and 2.63 xGA show the scorelines have been considerably higher than the chance quality.
This distinction matters. Wolves have scored 11 league goals from 7.15 xG, while conceding eight from 4.30 xGA. Their matches have been productive, but maintaining those finishing returns is not necessary for both teams to find the net here.
Birmingham's attack has been less explosive, yet their recent chance creation and ability to compete against Southampton provide support for a home contribution. Wolves retain enough attacking involvement to threaten in response, while neither relevant venue split includes a clean sheet.
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