Arsenal host Burnley at the Emirates Stadium on Monday evening with the Premier League title potentially within reach. Mikel Arteta's side know victory against the division's bottom side, combined with Manchester City dropping points the following evening, would move them to the brink of becoming champions.
Burnley meanwhile arrive already relegated and without a point across their last four away fixtures. For Arsenal the stakes could hardly be bigger. For Burnley it is about finishing a difficult season with some pride intact. The gap between these sides is reflected heavily across the underlying numbers.
Burnley's away profile remains one of the weakest in the division. Their away xG battle won rate sits at 0%, meaning they have failed to win the underlying process battle in a single away match all season. Their away non penalty xG of 0.77 per game is the lowest figure in the league while they have created zero big chances across their last four away matches.
Their away shots on target total of 12 across that same run averages only three per game and recent attacking numbers suggest a side struggling badly to create meaningful opportunities. Individual quality still exists through players such as Jaidon Anthony and Zian Flemming but the overall process remains extremely poor.
Arsenal's home numbers sit at the opposite end of the scale. They have won the xG battle in 100% of home matches this season, a figure unmatched anywhere in the league. Their home non penalty xG of 1.84 is the strongest attacking home profile in the division while their home non penalty xGA of just 0.83 is also the strongest defensive figure.
Arsenal have created 41 big chances at home this season, more than any other side, and continue to dominate matches through control, territory and chance creation. With Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard and Eberechi Eze operating behind Viktor Gyokeres, Burnley are likely to spend long periods under pressure.
How the bookies view it
Arsenal are overwhelming favourites at 1/10, implying an 83% probability of victory. Burnley are priced at 33/1, implying 5%, while the draw sits at 12/1, implying 12%.
Both teams to score is available at 13/8, implying 38%. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/3, implying 75%.
Head to head: Arsenal dominance
Arsenal lead the overall head to head record with 14 wins to Burnley's one across 18 Premier League meetings alongside three draws. The aggregate score stands at 35-8 in Arsenal's favour, highlighting the long term dominance in this fixture.
Burnley's only victory arrived back in December 2020 and Arsenal have won the last three meetings including a 5-0 win in February 2024 and a 2-0 victory at Turf Moor earlier this season. Burnley have also failed to score in 10 of the 18 meetings between the sides.
Player to watch: Fouls for Flemming
Zian Flemming heads into Monday evening as Burnley's most likely attacking outlet and the player who stands out strongest in the individual foul markets. The Dutch forward has committed 47 fouls across 27 appearances this season, averaging 1.74 per game, but his recent numbers have moved significantly higher.
Across his last 10 appearances he has committed two or more fouls in eight of them, producing a level of consistency few players across the weekend card can match.
The match context strengthens the angle even further. Burnley are likely to spend long periods without possession against an Arsenal side that dominates the ball at home more consistently than almost any team in the division.
Flemming will likely spend much of the evening competing physically against William Saliba and Gabriel, two defenders who regularly force attackers into uncomfortable situations. The combination of limited possession, repeated physical battles and Burnley likely chasing the game creates exactly the conditions that have consistently produced Flemming's strongest foul numbers this season
Predicted lineups
Arsenal 4-2-3-1: Raya, Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori, Rice, Lewis Skelly, Saka, Eze, Trossard, Gyokeres.
Burnley 4-3-3: Weiss, Walker, Tuanzebe, Esteve, Pires, Florentino, Hannibal, Ugochukwu, Anthony, Flemming, Tchaouna.
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal to score in both halves and under six match goals stands out as the strongest angle on Monday evening, combining two outcomes strongly supported by the numbers.
Arsenal have scored in both halves in nine of their 18 home matches this season and their home first half scoring rate of 78% forms the basis of the selection. Burnley's away defensive numbers strengthen the case further, particularly given they have struggled badly against stronger opposition all season.
The under six goals side of the bet also carries strong support. The average goals figure across the 18 previous meetings sits at only 2.39 while Arsenal's home non penalty xGA of 0.83 is the strongest defensive home number in the division.
Arsenal dominate matches through control rather than chaos and six goals would sit well outside both the historical trend and the current numbers.
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